This rise partly reversed earlier declines, which had reflected a number of factors: the expected negative impact of the Asian situation on the local economy, associated concerns about the possibility
of global deflation, and the projected fall in the stock of bonds on issue reflecting the expected run of Budget surpluses and the proposed sale of the remainder of Telstra.
The key message from escalating trade tensions is that one of the key drivers
of global deflation is now going into reverse.
Not exact matches
In the days to come the Fed will have to prove that a new set
of tools for managing interest rates will work as expected; see how higher U.S. rates affect domestic and
global financial conditions; and hope that weak world demand and commodity prices do not lead to an overall bout
of deflation and force the Fed to reverse course.
The
deflation of the
global credit bubble since 2008 has led credit - related investments to underperform US stocks.
According to new research on the role
of the U.S. dollar from Harvard, cited by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, the U.S. economy is fairly insulated from foreign inflation /
deflation pressures via exchange rates, implying that policymakers should be less worried about
global deflation pressures.
If you've been on the site for awhile, you have a head start because we've already discussed the importance
of a discipline known as asset allocation, which involves selecting among different asset classes to build a well - balanced portfolio that can weather different economic environments, tax regimes,
global conditions, inflation or
deflation, and a host
of other variables that history has shown will fluctuate over time.
Japanese
deflation occurred in an environment
of fairly robust
global growth.
The year opened with intense fears
of global recession and rippling
deflation.
Since 2001 the silver and gold markets have gone up substantially as a reaction to the 20 year precious metals bear market from 1980 — 2000, massive increases in military spending, weakening
global economies that REQUIRE Quantitative Easing to avoid
deflation, the rise
of competing currencies that weaken the dollar's trading status, excessive debts in Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and so much more.
Posted by Arun DuBois under banks, budgets,
deflation, economic crisis, economic growth, economic literacy, federal budget, fiscal policy,
global crisis, monetary policy, recession, Role
of government.
After all, the amount
of global GDP that has accrued to investment, as the
global economy has «grown» these last two decades is why we have a demand - deficient,
deflation prone, stagnant prospect, low - interest world, we have.
At the same time, with risks to the
global economy and markets looming (think Brexit,
global deflation fears, China devaluation, etc...), risk - off sentiment could also reassert itself as a driver
of dollar strength.
In addition to near zero interest rates, central banks created excessive amounts
of money by issuing trillions
of dollars
of bonds, e.g. QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, etc. pushing unprecedented amounts
of newly created money into
global markets to contain the growing deflationary threat; and, while it failed to contain
deflation, the excessive liquidity is now circulating in markets with no place to go, akin to moribund monetary edema.
The Conditions at Sea: Worldwide Circumstances Distracting Investors Since the financial crisis
of 2008 - 2009, investors have been obsessed with macroeconomic themes and distracted by various worldwide circumstances, including
deflation in Japan; the state
of global banks; financial instability in Greece, Cyprus and the European Union; and the challenges facing the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China).
There is growing evidence
of both a
global economic slowdown and the potential for
deflation.
He explains his logic in this interview with the Athens News, on the occasion
of publication
of his latest book, The Bubble and Beyond: Fictitious Capital, Debt
Deflation and
Global Crisis, which can be purchased here.
The drivers
of this low growth environment stem from four secular headwinds — aging demographics, depressed productivity, high
global debt levels and incessant
deflation deriving from globalization.
His ground breaking research on complex systems modelling
of debt -
deflation was awarded the eminent Revere Award from the Real World Economics Review, describing Keen as the economist «who first and most clearly anticipated and gave public warning
of the
Global Financial Collapse and whose work is most likely to prevent another GFC in the future».
A number
of economists and commentators have expressed the belief that the
global economy is on the brink of deflation, but Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab takes a contrarian
global economy is on the brink
of deflation, but Templeton
Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab takes a contrarian
Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab takes a contrarian view.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's
Global Investment Committee (GIC), a group
of seasoned investment professionals with whom I meet regularly to review the economic and political environment and asset allocation models for Wealth Management clients, believes
deflation fears have gone too far and have become too embedded in both investor psyches and market structures.
But no sooner had China's industrial base started to show some positive effects from the pickup in
global commodity prices — which has allowed its factories to push through some price increases after many years
of producer price
deflation — than several
of the industrial materials most reliant on Chinese demand started to come under pressure during April.
A number
of economists and commentators have expressed the belief that the
global economy is on the brink of deflation, but Templeton Global Ma
global economy is on the brink
of deflation, but Templeton
Global Ma
Global Macro...
Indeed, a number
of economists and commentators have repeatedly raised the fear that the
global economy might fall into stagnation and / or
deflation.
We've consistently predicted the good
deflation of excess supply, but in our two Deflation books and subsequent reports, we said clearly that the bad deflation of deficient demand could occur — due to severe and widespread financial crises or due to global prote
deflation of excess supply, but in our two
Deflation books and subsequent reports, we said clearly that the bad deflation of deficient demand could occur — due to severe and widespread financial crises or due to global prote
Deflation books and subsequent reports, we said clearly that the bad
deflation of deficient demand could occur — due to severe and widespread financial crises or due to global prote
deflation of deficient demand could occur — due to severe and widespread financial crises or due to
global protectionism.
According to editor Tiffany Godoy, who is a veteran
of the Tokyo fashion industry, a lot
of it had to do with the
global financial crisis in 2011, followed by the Tōhoku and Fukushima catastrophes, which hurt consumer confidence and saw the world's third - largest economy to fall into years
of tepid growth and
deflation.
If you want to, you can buy it here: The Era
of Uncertainty:
Global Investment Strategies for Inflation,
Deflation, and the Middle Ground.
His fears resonate mine regarding
Deflation Watch Riccardo Ronco, head
of technical analysis at Aviate
Global speak about
Deflation
This year our lead theme All About That Pace again appears out
of consensus as the market view for rates has shifted towards fears
of deflation and expectations that low
global rates means U.S. rates can never move higher.
But maybe the problem here isn't the Fed but that markets are slowly but surely pricing in
global deflation, which would explain why asset allocators are shifting out
of risk assets into safe haven assets.
But it's not clear where Smurfit stands in this regard — there are certainly fresh threats to
global growth, and debt overhang will restrain the developed markets for years to come — on the other hand, Smurfit's now a dominant player, emerging markets continue to perform well, and Western central banks continue to pump out a tsunami
of liquidity to combat debt
deflation.
Gyrating stock values, slumping oil prices, turmoil in foreign currency markets, predictions
of slow growth or even
deflation abroad... Suddenly, the outlook for the
global economy and financial markets looks far different — and much dicier — than just a few months ago.
While gold was washed out during the Great Depression once
global economies abandoned the gold standard, today it provides a store
of value against risks
of both inflation and
deflation.
Brokers Sanford Bernstein say we are entering an era
of «
global energy
deflation» where gains in solar technology must relentlessly erode the viability
of the fossil nexus, since it goes only in one direction.
The coarse resolution
of global models, together with regional uncertainties in precipitation, make it difficult to assess the probability
of deflation becoming supply - limited consequent on wetting
of the Bodélé and / or increased vegetation cover over the basin.
Even Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has now thrown his Stetson in the presidential ring, is competing with Bachmann for the ultra-religious vote, and not only pooh - poohs evolution and
global warming, but has accused the Chairman
of the Fed
of treason for printing more money to avoid a Japanese - style bout
of deflation.
But Doll said the U.S. may underperform going forward because
of improving
global growth, trade improvement, commodity price stabilization and diminished
deflation risk.