«What's going on is a repricing
of global interest rates.»
The convergence of Japan's P / E multiple to more global norms is therefore partly a function of convergence
of global interest rates to similar extremely low levels through synchronized quantitative easing by central banks.
Given the starting level
of global interest rates for the next US president (5,000 - year lows!)
Not exact matches
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability
of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost
of accommodating, announced increases in the build
rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build
rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect
of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result
of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect
of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange
rates; 9) the success and timely execution
of key milestones such as the receipt
of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation
of our announced acquisition
of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability
of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk
of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production
of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts
of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak
of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact
of future discount
rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition
of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect
of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect
of changes in tax law, such as the effect
of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations
of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect
of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit
ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability
of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass
of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many
of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment
of interest on, and principal
of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher
interest payments should
interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness
of any
interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness
of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact
of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition
of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result
of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks
of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange
rates, impositions
of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.
Yoshida joined trueEx in 2017 from Deutsche Bank, where he most recently was
global head
of interest rate sales.
That's important because the ECB's liquidity is one
of the biggest remaining supporting factors behind the
global stock market rally, now that the Federal Reserve has ended its own «quantitative easing» program and has started to raise official U.S.
interest rates.
For example, in 2008 they cut
interest rates together in response to the deepening
global downturn, and in 2011 they helped prevent runaway appreciation
of the Japanese yen following a devastating earthquake.
Another year
of ultralow
interest rates is one consideration, as the central bank thinks Canada's non-energy exporters are poised to do well as the
global economy strengthens.
«The benefits
of tax reform,
global synchronized growth, [and] employment gains will extend the life
of our economic expansion and eventually lead to inflation and higher
interest rates.
Shirakawa's doubts kept the BOJ firmly focused on
interest rates, rather than the size
of its balance sheet, even after it had driven its policy
rate down close to zero after the
global financial crisis.
Global stocks have pushed to new highs, outdoing previous records set in 2015, driven by strong economic data in the U.S. and comments by the Federal Reserve on the future path
of interest rates.
In the days to come the Fed will have to prove that a new set
of tools for managing
interest rates will work as expected; see how higher U.S.
rates affect domestic and
global financial conditions; and hope that weak world demand and commodity prices do not lead to an overall bout
of deflation and force the Fed to reverse course.
New Zealand and Australia, however, are
global outliers given the negative
interest rates operating in countries that represent a quarter
of world output.
But the downturn in the 1980s was caused by the sudden and massive increase in
interest rates by the Paul Volcker - led Federal Reserve, not a meltdown
of the
global financial system.
In his annual letter to shareholders, Fink, who is also the CEO
of BlackRock (blk), singled out the growing trend
of negative
interest rates as a «particularly worrying» development in the
global economy.
And with
global interest rates so low, fixed income and cash alone are unlikely to enable your savings to keep up with your cost
of living after retirement.
While the Fed has indicated it plans to raise short - term
interest rates, the uncertain domestic and
global economies and the still - loosening monetary policy
of central bankers in other countries suggests that
rates could remain very low for a long time still.
Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation: (1) the effect
of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including financial market conditions, fluctuations in commodity prices,
interest rates and foreign currency exchange
rates, levels
of end market demand in construction and in both the commercial and defense segments
of the aerospace industry, levels
of air travel, financial condition
of commercial airlines, the impact
of weather conditions and natural disasters and the financial condition
of our customers and suppliers; (2) challenges in the development, production, delivery, support, performance and realization
of the anticipated benefits
of advanced technologies and new products and services; (3) the scope, nature, impact or timing
of acquisition and divestiture or restructuring activity, including the pending acquisition
of Rockwell Collins, including among other things integration
of acquired businesses into United Technologies» existing businesses and realization
of synergies and opportunities for growth and innovation; (4) future timing and levels
of indebtedness, including indebtedness expected to be incurred by United Technologies in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition, and capital spending and research and development spending, including in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition; (5) future availability
of credit and factors that may affect such availability, including credit market conditions and our capital structure; (6) the timing and scope
of future repurchases
of United Technologies» common stock, which may be suspended at any time due to various factors, including market conditions and the level
of other investing activities and uses
of cash, including in connection with the proposed acquisition
of Rockwell; (7) delays and disruption in delivery
of materials and services from suppliers; (8) company and customer - directed cost reduction efforts and restructuring costs and savings and other consequences thereof; (9) new business and investment opportunities; (10) our ability to realize the intended benefits
of organizational changes; (11) the anticipated benefits
of diversification and balance
of operations across product lines, regions and industries; (12) the outcome
of legal proceedings, investigations and other contingencies; (13) pension plan assumptions and future contributions; (14) the impact
of the negotiation
of collective bargaining agreements and labor disputes; (15) the effect
of changes in political conditions in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate, including the effect
of changes in U.S. trade policies or the U.K.'s pending withdrawal from the EU, on general market conditions,
global trade policies and currency exchange
rates in the near term and beyond; (16) the effect
of changes in tax (including U.S. tax reform enacted on December 22, 2017, which is commonly referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
of 2017), environmental, regulatory (including among other things import / export) and other laws and regulations in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate; (17) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins to receive the required regulatory approvals (and the risk that such approvals may result in the imposition
of conditions that could adversely affect the combined company or the expected benefits
of the merger) and to satisfy the other conditions to the closing
of the pending acquisition on a timely basis or at all; (18) the occurrence
of events that may give rise to a right
of one or both
of United Technologies or Rockwell Collins to terminate the merger agreement, including in circumstances that might require Rockwell Collins to pay a termination fee
of $ 695 million to United Technologies or $ 50 million
of expense reimbursement; (19) negative effects
of the announcement or the completion
of the merger on the market price
of United Technologies» and / or Rockwell Collins» common stock and / or on their respective financial performance; (20) risks related to Rockwell Collins and United Technologies being restricted in their operation
of their businesses while the merger agreement is in effect; (21) risks relating to the value
of the United Technologies» shares to be issued in connection with the pending Rockwell acquisition, significant merger costs and / or unknown liabilities; (22) risks associated with third party contracts containing consent and / or other provisions that may be triggered by the Rockwell merger agreement; (23) risks associated with merger - related litigation or appraisal proceedings; and (24) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins, or the combined company, to retain and hire key personnel.
U.S. economic growth and the expectation for higher
interest rates should also give the rally in the dollar more fuel, said Gina Sanchez, CEO
of Chantico
Global.
Stocks fell across the board Wednesday as the year's final fiscal quarter opened to a market sell - off spurred by concerns over mounting
global crises, including the first domestic case
of Ebola, as well as the looming possibility
of an
interest rate hike.
However, growth in the classic car market is slowing, in part due to fears
of a potential
interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a downturn in
global liquidity.
«Our «rational exuberance» rests on a combination
of above - trend US and
global economic growth, low albeit slowly rising
interest rates, and profit growth aided by corporate tax reform likely to be adopted by early next year,» Kostin said in a report for clients.
BERKELEY, California - Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco President John C. Williams participates in a panel discussion on
interest rates at the 2017 Clausen Center Conference on
Global Economic Issues - 2100 GMT.
The NIRP absurdity is jackhammering into the foundation
of the
global economy that has already been damaged by the distortions caused by years
of QE and zero -
interest -
rate policies.
All 14 economists surveyed by Reuters predicted the central bank would keep its benchmark
interest rate unchanged while assessing the effects
of its November
rate rise and
global
Without a clear voice from Berlin, the EU will simply find it harder to articulate policies to deal with the suppression
of civil rights in central Europe, the splintering
of the single market through Brexit and — heaven help us — a possible renewal
of the Eurozone crisis amid as
global interest rates turn higher.
Overall, Treasury yields, which influence the
interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages and other loans, have been «remarkably stable» given the Fed could raise
rates against the backdrop
of ongoing turmoil in
global markets, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab.
Returns from that era were boosted by a confluence
of factors that are unlikely to come together again: declines in inflation and
interest rates, strong
global GDP, low corporate tax, and rapid growth in China.
Overall, market players were worried with the impact
of higher
interest rates on the stock market, and more broadly, on the
global economy.
A combination
of rising inflation and
interest rates,
global trade tensions and emerging skepticism toward the tech sector pushed most asset classes into negative territory year - to - date.
Financial stability risks have become topical in the wake
of the
global financial crisis and the subsequent extended period
of very low
interest rates.
Consider, the many different channels
of potential Brexit influence — not only the impact on international trade and
global interest rates and currencies, but also on bank equity prices and on political uncertainty.
With the
global economy «floating on an ocean
of credit,» the current acceleration
of credit via central bank policies will likely produce a positive
rate of real economic growth this year for most developed countries, PIMCO chief Bill Gross writes in his latest monthly commentary, but «the structural distortions brought about by zero bound
interest rates will limit that growth and induce serious risks in future years.»
Although some are concerned about potential inflation and higher
interest rates, we still enjoy an environment
of synchronized
global economic growth and muted macro risks.
Higher income consumers are also expected to rein in spending after seeing their stock portfolios oscillate, due to the turmoil in the
global stock markets following the devaluation
of the Chinese yuan and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold off raising
interest rates.
A number
of factors — such as rising US
interest rates, the recurrence
of big fluctuations in
global currencies, and the widening dispersion
of equity returns across sectors and regions — may have helped to create an increasingly conducive environment for hedge - fund strategies, which have seen a positive turnaround in performance in recent quarters.
On the other side
of the ledger, periods
of rising
interest rates globally have, historically, exposed over-borrowing somewhere in the
global system.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank
of Canada, banks, China, Conservative government, economic crisis, economic growth, employment, exchange
rates, financial markets, GDP,
global crisis,
interest rates, international trade, labour market, macroeconomics, manufacturing, monetary policy, recession, Role
of government, unemployment, US.
PIMCO is a top down macro shop, and the work he does comes from the fundamentals
of interest rates, including the improving
global economic forces, including EU zone and Japan.
However, Rieder believes that doesn't factor in the role
of low
global interest rates.
Following the British vote to exit the European Union,
global economic concerns, coupled with weakness in the Japanese economy, drove
interest rates in Britain, Europe and Japan to fresh lows, prompting a burst
of yield - seeking speculation that has driven the S&P 500 Index a few percent above its May 2015 peak.
Another unusual aspect
of current
global interest rates is that long - term
rates, which are set by the demand for and supply
of funds in capital markets, have remained quite low in the face
of rising official
interest rates.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank
of Canada, budgets, China, Conservative government, deficits, economic crisis, economic growth, employment, exchange
rates, federal budget, fiscal policy,
global crisis, household debt, IMF,
interest rates, labour market, macroeconomics, manufacturing, monetary policy, recession, stimulus, unemployment.
Our
Global Market Strategies segment, established in 1999 with our first high yield fund, advises a group
of 46 active funds that pursue investment opportunities across various types
of credit, equities and alternative instruments, including bank loans, high yield debt, structured credit products, distressed debt, corporate mezzanine, energy mezzanine opportunities and long / short high - grade and high - yield credit instruments, emerging markets equities, and (with regards to certain macroeconomic strategies) currencies, commodities and
interest rate products and their derivatives.
For equity markets, the combination
of low
interest rates, strong economic growth and low inflation has proved very beneficial, with
global share markets rising solidly in each
of the past three years.
Concerns over
global growth and rising
interest rates have pushed many out
of this space, but our research indicates that there are pockets within the EM landscape that have been growing.
Global turmoil last summer, stemming from China, prompted the United States to delay raising
interest rates until the end
of last year.
Commonwealth Bank has cut its Australian dollar forecast for this year and next to take into account a slowing
global economy, the pricing out
of an
interest rate hike in Australia this year and a firming
of the US dollar.
While there are some signs
of recognition such as the Fed's reduction in its estimated neutral
rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2 years, the IMF's explicit use
of the term secular stagnation in its World Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call for
global coordination and greater use
of fiscal policy, and Japan's indicated
interest in fiscal - monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not made sufficiently radical adjustments in their world view to reflect this new reality
of a world where generating adequate nominal GDP growth is likely to be the primary macroeconomic policy challenge for the next decade.
CBA cuts Australian dollar forecasts for 2018, 2019: CBA has cut its Australian dollar forecast for 2018 and 2019 to account for a slowing
global economy, the pricing out
of an Australian
interest rate hike and a firmer US dollar.