Sentences with phrase «of global mean»

The heat balance Broad aspects of global mean temperature change may be illustrated using a simple representation of the heat budget of the climate system expressed as:

This was precisely the reason centred correlations were introduced (e.g., Santer et al., 1993): to provide an indicator that was statistically independent of global mean temperature changes.

«Different statistical tests of the stationarity of the global mean temperature have yielded conflicting results [Stern and Kauffman, 2000].»

The centred (uncentred) statistic measures the similarity of two patterns after (without) removal of the global mean.

Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm).

They used several simple indices, including the land - ocean contrast, the meridional gradient, and the magnitude of the seasonal cycle, to describe global climate variations and showed that for natural variations, they contain information independent of the global mean temperature.

The observed changes (lower panel; Trenberth and Fasullo 2010) show the 12 - month running means of global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to 1901 — 2000 from NOAA [red (thin) and decadal (thick)-RSB- in °C (scale lower left), CO2 concentrations (green) in ppmv from NOAA (scale right), and global sea level adjusted for isostatic rebound from AVISO (blue, along with linear trend of 3.2 mm / year) relative to 1993, scale at left in mm).

I think this could be another reason why the derivation of the IPCC's formula for radiative forcing from CO2 offered by Bindidon is not valid, since that derivation involves the assumption that our estimate of the global mean surface temperature can be converted directly into an estimate of global mean surface radiance by a simple application of the Stefan - Boltzman formula, which you have pointed out is not necessarily true.

Some studies of the characteristics of the global mean and its relationship to forcing indices are assessed in Section 12.2.3.

The «note» you refer to goes: «Note: LOTI provides a more realistic representation of the global mean trends than dTs below; it slightly underestimates warming or cooling trends, since the much larger heat capacity of water compared to air causes a slower and diminished reaction to changes; dTs on the other hand overestimates trends, since it disregards most of the dampening effects of the oceans that cover about two thirds of the earth's surface.»

Still, while it is true that we don't know for sure that 390 W / m ² is a reasonably accurate estimate of the global mean surface radiance, I don't know that it is an unreasonably inaccurate one either.

Now that 2012 is over, it is time to update a comparison of simulations and observations of global mean temperatures.

Projected ranges of global mean annual temperature change during the 21st century for CO2 - stabilisation scenarios (upper panel, based on the TAR) and for the six illustrative SRES scenarios (middle and lower panels, based on the WG I Fourth Assessment).

Projections of global mean warming during the 21st century for the six SRES illustrative scenarios are presented by WG I (Meehl et al., 2007) and summarised in Figure 2.8.

However, the point I am making is that the efforts of the IPCC to define climate sensitivity will have no policy value if that which we measure (and the way in which we measure and calculate it) to achieve our records of global mean surface temperature is not in fact a true reflection of the heat energy at the surface.

Delworth and Knutson (2000) find that one in five of their anthropogenic climate change simulations showed a similar evolution of global mean surface temperature over the 20th century to that observed, with strong warming, particularly in the high latitude North Atlantic, in the first half of the century.

You'd hardly notice that change in an afternoon, but in terms of global mean temperature it's the difference between what we have now and mile - high ice sheets covering large portions of the northern hemisphere.

Projections of global mean annual temperature change for SRES and CO2 - stabilisation profiles are presented in Box 2.8.

The rate of increase (degrees per decade) of the global mean temperature trend - line equation derived from the HadCRUT4 data has been constant or steadily decreasing since October 2000.

But, Ray, we don't have a very good understanding of climate sensitivity today, nor of global mean surface temperature.

For instance, many people appear to (incorrectly) think that attribution is just based on a naive correlation of the global mean temperature, or that it is impossible to do unless a change is «unprecedented» or that the answers are based on our lack of imagination about other causes.

(It is frequently forgotten or overlooked in discussions of global mean temperature that temperatures over land rise much more than temperatures over ocean — and ocean, of course, occupies roughly 70 % of the world's surface.

In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human - caused greenhouse gas emissions.

There are also indications that the» hiatus» is related to increased warming in the deep oceans (Balmaseda et al. 2013) and that the estimate of the global mean has been underestimated due under - reporting of the recent warming in the Arctic (Cowtan and Way 2014).

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity?

Median temperature responses simulated by the models per degree of global mean temperature increase for JJA.

A question that gets a lot of attention is whether you should try to tune your model to be consistent with the evolution of global mean temperatures (GMT) over the past century, or if you should withhold that particular iconic data set during model development, justifying its use as a measure of model quality.

Using a 25 - y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX / Poseidon, Jason - 1, Jason - 2, and Jason - 3, we estimate the climate - change — driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm / y2.

For example, Stainforth et al. (2005) have shown that many different combinations of uncertain model sub-grid scale parameters can lead to good simulations of global mean surface temperature, but do not lead to a robust result for the model's climate sensitivity.

Incorporating these processes in some models leads to higher projections of global mean sea level rise by the year 2100: 0.26 to 0.98 meters under RCP 2.6, and 0.93 to 2.43 meters under RCP 8.5.

Unfortunately no computational results of EU, ST, A, TA and τ A can be found in the literature, and therefore our main purpose is to give realistic estimates of their global mean values, and investigate their dependence on the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Note: LOTI provides a more realistic representation of the global mean trends than dTs below; it slightly underestimates warming or cooling trends, since the much larger heat capacity of water compared to air causes a slower and diminished reaction to changes; dTs on the other hand overestimates trends, since it disregards most of the dampening effects of the oceans that cover about two thirds of the Earth's surface.

I've found a paper that disagrees with the consensus that the recent warming is mostly anthropogenic: http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/ep/preprint/mayjun96/4344.html «The simulation implies that the solar part of the forcing, alone, would account for 71 % of the global mean temperature variance, compared to 51 % for the greenhouse gases part, alone.»

Because it has been shown that UHI has zero effect on estimates of global mean temperature.

I do not see how discussing the prevention of a global mean temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius is a smokescreen for anything.

Well, I estimated the first derivative of global mean surface temperature using a Bayesian state model, and I got something around 0.01 degrees Celsius per year increase (see here and here), which is consistent with the Cowtan and Way estimate.

The closeness of the global mean and the NH mean before the early 20th century may be due to the lack of data south of 60 ° S.

That is the upper limit of global mean sea - level that coastal protection might need for the coming century.

It is likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise has continued to increase since the early 20th century.

ECS is defined in terms of global mean temperature change, not separately for land and ocean.

The derived average storm surge heights were then displaced upwards by the amount of global mean sea - level rise assumed for the 2030 and 2060 Foresight scenarios [38, 39], 10 cm and 21 cm respectively (Table 3).

Fig. 3 shows that the resulting cleaned signal presents a nearly monotonic warming of the global mean surface temperature throughout the 20th century, and closely resembles a quadratic fit to the actual 20th century global mean temperature.

These weights allow for an objective, statistical prediction of global mean temperature fluctuations arising solely from SST - associated internal variability within a given model.

Median projections of global mean sea level over the course of this century for low, median, and high emissions futures.

Study of global mean temperature since 1880 of about — 0.2 deg C shows a 30 years global cooling of 0.4 deg C followed by a 30 - years global warming of 0.7 deg C. http://bit.ly/iUqG8I

Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise, ΔT, relative to pre-industrial climate (approach and event numbers as used in Table 4.1 and Appendix 4.1).

Here, we extend the reconstruction of global mean sea level back to 1870 and find a sea - level rise from January 1870 to December 2004 of 195 mm, a 20th century rate of sea - level rise of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm yr − 1 and a significant acceleration of sea - level rise of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm yr − 2.

The Hockey stick is a peer reviewed and accepted model of the global mean temperature by consensus of the best science organizations in the world from large scope analysis and relevant science.

Doing so is vital, as the future evolution of the global mean temperature may hold surprises on both the warm and cold ends of the spectrum due entirely to internal variability that lie well outside the envelope of a steadily increasing global mean temperature.»

This is likely an argument based on the the data points of global mean temperature since 1998.