But the underlying economic expectations that steeper yield curves imply is
of global reflation — higher growth and with it higher inflation.
Other signs
of global reflation include a rebound in inflation expectations from mid-2016 lows, a bottoming out in core inflation and wages, and a synchronized pick - up in economic activity indicators and corporate earnings estimates.
We are in the early stages
of a global reflation cycle that started in mid-2016.
Not exact matches
Bottom line: We see the current bout
of reflation having a bigger impact boosting activity in China and EMs, helping the
global reflation story play out for longer.
Wage growth, long missing in the post-crisis expansion, is a crucial part
of the reflationary dynamic, as we write in our new
Global Macro Outlook Waking up to
reflation.
The
global reflation trade is in full swing, the return
of cash flow to shareholders is at a record pace and that is why, in my opinion, the U.S. equity markets are set to extend the current rally well into 2019.
We see this dynamic as alive and well, with the
global economy moving from acceleration to a phase
of sustained growth, as I write in my new Fixed Income Strategy piece Reevaluating
reflation.