Bob Tisdale says, «They increased the trend
of the global sea surface temperature anomalies from 0.088 degrees Celsius per decade to 0.125 degrees Celsius per decade or about 42 %.
However the complexity of sea surface makes for instance any application of Henry's law be too uncertain, even impossible, to reach any quantitative results concerning the influence
of global sea surface temperature on the CO2 content in atmosphere.
Composite analysis
of global sea surface temperature during unusually wet and dry years also suggests a linkage between reconstructed rainfall and ENSO.
The research will be directed toward using a combined observational and modeling approach to investigate the nature and cause of the Congo rainfall variability in the 20st century, with an emphasis on the role
of global sea surface temperatures.
Not exact matches
First,
sea -
surface temperatures in the Gulf
of Mexico have been higher than normal in the past couple
of months, due to
global warming, which means the air that flowed north would have been warmer to start with.
In June 2015, NOAA researchers led by Thomas Karl published a paper in the journal Science comparing the new and previous NOAA
sea surface temperature datasets, finding that the rate
of global warming since 2000 had been underestimated and there was no so - called «hiatus» in warming in the first fifteen years
of the 21st century.
Ocean Only: The August
global sea surface temperature was 1.17 °F (0.65 °C) above the 20th century average
of 61.4 °F (16.4 °C), the highest on record for August.
Ocean Only: The June - August
global sea surface temperature was 1.13 °F (0.63 °C), above the 20th century average
of 61.5 °F (16.4 °C), the highest for June - August on record.
A warm bias in
sea surface temperature in most
global climate models is due to a misrepresentation
of the coastal separation position
of the Gulf Stream, which extends too far north
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Of course, while short - term changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
Of course, while short - term changes in
sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions
of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs
of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of the average
global surface temperature — there is a lot
of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of noise, or natural variation, in the system.
Predictions
of global cooling in the short term are partly based on the idea that
sea surface temperatures will fall in the northern Atlantic, due to slow, irregular swings in conditions known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
These discoveries were made possible by the enhancement
of a
global network to monitor
sea -
surface temperatures, under the auspices
of TOGA and another large international study, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment.
The average
global sea surface temperature tied with 2010 as the second highest for January — August in the 135 - year period
of record, behind 1998, while the average land
surface temperature was the fifth highest.
Here, we report on local and
global changes in MHW characteristics over time as recorded by satellite and in situ measurements
of sea surface temperature (SST) and defined using a quantitative MHW framework, which allows for comparisons across regions and events1.
The oceans are heating up: Not only was Earth's
temperature record warm in 2014, but so were the
global oceans, as
sea surface temperatures and the heat
of the upper oceans also hit record highs.
Figure 4 - Spatial variability
of the
sea surface temperature (SST) trends scaled with the
global surface air
temperature (SAT) trend for each simulation used in the study.
(1) The warm
sea surface temperatures are not just some short - term anomaly but are part
of a long - term observed warming trend, in which ocean
temperatures off the US east coast are warming faster than
global average
temperatures.
A very recent study by Saba et al. (2015) specifically analyzed
sea surface temperatures off the US east coast in observations and a suite
of global warming runs with climate models.
Results from a multiregression analysis
of the
global and
sea surface temperature anomalies for the period 1950 — 2011 are presented where among the independent variables multidecade oscillation signals over various oceanic areas are included.
For the oceans, the November
global sea surface temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century average
of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), the highest for November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.20 °C (0.36 °F).
Since the mid 1970's,
global estimates
of the potential destructiveness
of hurricanes show an upward trend strongly correlated with increasing tropical
sea -
surface temperature.
A new analysis published in the journal Environmental Research Letters establishes that seasonal forecast
sea surface temperature (SSTs) can be used to perform probabilistic extreme - event attribution, thereby accelerating the time it takes climate scientists to understand and quantify the role
of global warming in certain classes
of extreme weather events.
(a) The PDO represents the standardized leading Principal Component
of the
sea surface temperature anomalies
of the North Pacific north
of 20N after the
global temperatures have been removed, not the
sea surface temperature anomalies.
The June globally averaged
sea surface temperature was 1.39 °F above the 20th century monthly average
of 61.5 °F — the highest
global ocean
temperature for June in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.05 °F.
The May globally averaged
sea surface temperature was 1.37 °F above the 20th century monthly average
of 61.3 °F — the highest
global ocean
temperature for May in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.09 °F.
The April globally averaged
sea surface temperature was 1.44 °F above the 20th century monthly average
of 60.9 °F — the highest
global ocean
temperature for April in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.25 °F and besting 1998, the last time a similar strength El Niño occurred, by 0.43 °F.
The July globally averaged
sea surface temperature was 1.42 °F above the 20th century monthly average
of 61.5 °F — the highest
global ocean
temperature for July in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.07 °F.
Mestas - Nunez, A.M., and D.B. Enfield, 1999: Rotated
global modes
of non-ENSO
sea surface temperature variability.
The September globally averaged
sea surface temperature was 1.33 °F above the 20th century monthly average
of 61.1 °F, tying with 2014 as the second highest
global ocean
temperature for September in the 1880 — 2016 record, behind 2015 by 0.16 °F.
As Arctic
temperatures rise at about double the rate
of the planet as a whole, Greenland's
surface has been melting at a steady clip, contributing about 30 percent
of the foot
of global sea level rise since 1900.
Cooling
sea -
surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean — part
of a natural warm and cold cycle — may explain why
global average
temperatures have stabilized in recent years, even as greenhouse gas emissions have been warming the planet.
As the authors point out, even if the whole story comes down to precipitation changes which favor ablation, the persistence
of these conditions throughout the 20th century still might be an indirect effect
of global warming, via the remote effect
of sea surface temperature on atmospheric circulation.
Remember also that the US is only about 2 %
of the globe and the
global surface record corresponds closely with satellite measurements
of the lower troposhere, and also the
sea surface temperatures show a strikingly similar pattern
of warming.
They show this with an elegant experiment, in which they «force» their
global climate model to follow the observed history
of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.
In other words,
global warming will lead to less North Atlantic hurricanes, not more as had been generally expected because
of the rise in
sea surface temperatures.
In addition, the early data for
sea surface temperatures is not
global, which further limits the usefulness
of these data for long period harmonic analysis.
------------ PS: The
Global Coral Reef Alliance has documented dramatic declines in coral reefs caused by global warming of surface waters, using satellite data of of global coral reefs and sea surface tempera
Global Coral Reef Alliance has documented dramatic declines in coral reefs caused by
global warming of surface waters, using satellite data of of global coral reefs and sea surface tempera
global warming
of surface waters, using satellite data
of of global coral reefs and sea surface tempera
global coral reefs and
sea surface temperatures.
On the
global warming context, it's worth noting that while
sea surface temperatures are hot, a more important factor for hurricane intensification (among many) is «tropical cyclone heat potential» (which includes the
temperature of deeper layers
of seawater that get churned up as a tropical storm passes).
With respect to 181, if
global warming increases
sea surface temperatures which contribute to an intensification
of tropical cyclones, then storms with winds below hurricane intensity will more frequently attain hurricane status (~ 100 kph winds).
Using monthly - averaged
global satellite records from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP [5]-RRB- and the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in conjunction with
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) extended and reconstructed SST (ERSST) dataset [7] we have examined the reliability
of long - term cloud measurements.
The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated
sea level rise three times faster than the
global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise
of global average
surface temperatures since 2001.
However, the CRU
global mean combined land air /
sea surface temperature estimates for Jan - Aug 2005 lag behind the 1998 annual mean estimate by 0.08 C (0.50 C vs. 58C for 1998) while GISS indicates a lag
of 0.02 C.
There are certainly better indicators
of global warming trends — ice sheet volume,
sea ice extent and
sea surface temperatures all come to mind — but hurricanes get people's attention.
The higher
sea surface temperatures in the tropics (~ 0.85 K / decade in recent decades) have lead to an increase in LW (infrared) radiation, and a loss to space
of some 3 W / m2 all over the tropics (50 %
of the
surface), which more than halves the — theoretical —
global influence (~ 2.4 W / m2)
of all extra GHGs together since the start
of the industrial revolution.
My colleagues Mihai Dima and Gerrit Lohmann
of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany in a 2010 study analysed the patterns
of changes in
global sea surface temperatures.
Re 9 wili — I know
of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part
of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the
global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity
of the
sea prevents much
temperature response, but there is a greater build up
of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part
of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect
of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Based on the results
of the causality tests, the author concludes that it is
global near -
surface air
temperature that influences
sea surface temperature, and not the other way around — which supports the
global warming - induced increase in hurricane intensity.
Seems to me the debate about AGHG
global warming and increasing TC frequency / intensity / duration boils down to the fact that as
sea surface temperatures, as well as deeper water
temperatures rise, the wallop
of any TC over warmer
seas without mitigating circumstances like wind sheer and dry air off land masses entrained in the cyclone will likely be much more devastating.
However, to support the assertion that
global warming is responsible for a great deal
of damage from such events, it is sufficient to show that such events have the «signature»
of global warming — for example, that specific
global warming - related factors such as abnormally high
sea surface temperatures, elevated water vapor levels, and altered jet stream patterns contributed to making Hurricane Sandy what it was — even if those factors can not be precisely quantified.
Considering that the mechanism
of the «natural AMO» is so poorly understood, there's no justification for immediately blaming increases in hurricane activity on it while entirely ignoring
global warming effects on
sea surface temperatures (and atmospheric moisture), for which very clear mechanisms do exist.