In recent decades, a number of groups have tried combining sets of these proxy records together to construct long - term estimates
of global temperature change over the last millennium or so.
While a student at the University of Minnesota was creating a cello composition around the last 130
years of global temperature change, a couple of researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory were producing a similar composition, for digital violin and with a much longer score — charting more than 600 years of climate variations and recent warming:
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling
Observations of Global Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 years»
Executive Summary The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project was created to make the best possible
estimate of global temperature change using as complete a record of measurements as possible and by applying novel methods for the estimation and elimination of systematic biases.
In
terms of global temperature change there are also several timescales of consideration - there is a fast component (roughly proportional to the instantaneous radiative forcing), and a slow omponent that reflects surface manifestation of changes in the deep ocean.
In our year - 2000 published analysis of these data through 1997 (Causes
of Global Temperature Changes During the 19th and 20th Centuries, Geophysical Research Letters, 27:14, 2137 - 2140; Natalia Andronova & Michael Schlesinger), we showed that this warming was predominantly due to people.
While we don't know precisely why the CO2 changes occur on long timescales, (the mechanisms are well understood; the details are not), we do know that explaining the
magnitude of global temperature change requires including CO2.
While the work of Michael Mann and colleagues presents what appears to be compelling
evidence of global temperature change, the criticisms of McIntyre and McKitrick, as well as those of other authors mentioned are indeed valid.
The chart on the right (for periods ending Sept. 2014) reveals a
deceleration of global temperature change that over the «last 10 years» reached a very slight global cooling status; yet, as can be seen, the CO2 growth trend was accelerating, reaching a rate robustly greater than those periods ending in 1999.
Figure 3 compares the GISS analysis
of global temperature change with the case in which the polar regions, specifically regions poleward of 64 degrees latitude, are excluded from the analysis.
They report that variations in the water vapor content in the lower stratosphere (apparently largely unrelated to GHG changes) have a large influence on the rate
of global temperature change for periods of a decade or more.
But until the scientists worked out that the sum of emissions over time (the «carbon budget») was to a first order the best
predictor of global temperature change, they were generally dismissed as naive and ideological.
Re «Estimates of the
drivers of global temperature change in the ice ages show that the changes in greenhouse gases (CO2, methane and nitrous oxide) made up about a third of the effect, amplifying the ice sheet changes by about 50 % (Köhler et al, 2010).»