Simple inspection
of global temperature graphs has long suggested that temperature changes are associated with ENSO.
It's been a while, but we have an update in our Today's Paradox series: If aerosol climate cooling is underestimated, that means the trend line
of the global temperature graph would lie higher than the one you get by... Continue reading →
Not exact matches
That
graph is a jazzed - up
graph of average
global temperatures since 2001 and shows, essentially, no trend.
Mr. Cuccinelli is well known for his harassment
of Michael Mann, a climate scientist vilified by industry apologists for creating the «Hockey Stick»
graph illustrating the increase
of average
global temperature measurements over the last millennium.
According to the latest
global satellite data courtesy
of the University
of Alabama in Huntsville and made into an easy to read
graph by algorelied.com: «For the record, this month's Al Gore / «An Inconvenient Truth» Index indicates that
global temperatures have plunged approximately.74 °F -LRB-.39 °C) since Gore's film was released,» noted algorelied.com.
A small change in average
global temperature leads to a dramatic change in the frequency
of extreme events.23 24 25 The following
graphs in Figure 5 help to illustrate this point.
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State who created the famous «Hockey Stick»
graph of global temperature records going back hundreds
of years, said that the spiral graphic was «an interesting and worthwhile approach to representing the data graphically.»
Chris O'Neill, If you think a
graph of GISTEMP since 1880 is in any way empirical proof that there is a human component to the increasing
global temperature then there is no point discussing further
However, if the CO2 ppm were extended back to say 1905, the
graph would show a strong disconnect between the rise
of the CO2 concentration and the
global temperature between 1905 and 1945.
Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere over short - term cool and hot spells in relation to
global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades - long
graph of global temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short - term up - and - down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño — Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.
If you think a
graph of GISTEMP since 1880 is in any way empirical proof that there is a human component to the increasing
global temperature then there is no point discussing further.
The resulting
graphs of global temperature trends, generated by David Thompson
of Colorado State, were posted on Realclimate a few days ago and are a very useful first step in potentially reducing some
of the rhetorical noise.
I have seen things on blogs where people try to jam together (by visual estimation
of published
graphs) previous forecasts
of global temperature against actuals (eg HADCRUT).
I am not sure how anyone can look at James Hansen's
graph of global temperature history in his 1988 presentation and say that there was a long term warming trend at that time.
In addition to a discussion
of some
of the extreme events
of 2011 this also comes with a first estimate
of the 2011
global temperature, see their
graph below:
It's the latest research in more than a decade
of work producing a climate «hockey stick» —
graphs of global or regional
temperatures showing relatively little variation over a millennium or more and then a sharp uptick since the middle
of the twentieth century (the blade at the end
of the stick).
So when you put cooling natural volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 together with a warming natural strong El Nino in 1998 you get a slight upward tilt to the
global temperature graph, but it's entirely due to the dominace
of natural events.
Here I'm going to examine some
graphs that Lord Monckton commonly uses to show that the IPCC has incorrectly predicted the recent evolution
of global atmospheric CO2 concentration and mean
temperature.
The Associated Press has put out an interesting interactive mapof climate change data, including the emission trends from countries in the northern hemisphere,
graphs of the various indicators
of global warming such as glacier melts and
global temperatures, and the pledges that different countries have made when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Monckton's 2002 — 2009
graph was a nonsense anyway, regardless
of what slope it shows, since 7 years
of data can't possibly give us the trend in
global temperatures.
To continue with my previous comment, I've created an image which compares a
graph of Atlantic tropical storm systems to a
graph of global surface air
temperature anomalies from 1851 to 2004:
Further evidence
of the crucial importance
of El Niño is that after correcting the
global temperature data for the effect
of ENSO and solar cycles by a simple correlation analysis, you get a steady warming trend without any recent slowdown (see next
graph and Foster and Rahmstorf 2011).
The standstil
of global average
temperature predicted by the «improved» modell compared to warming predicted from the «old» modell is nothing that happens in the future, it should have happened (but did not happen) in the past, from 1985 to 1999: The «improved» modell (green
graph) shows that the
global average
temperature did not change from 1985 (= mean 1980 - 1990) to 1999 (= mean 1994 to 2004).
In the figure below, we have superimposed the standard CRU data set (blue curve)
of global mean
temperature on Veizers
graph.
When I look at any
of the
graphs of global temperature I am struck by an impression
of a very high degree
of autocorrelation (indeed, tending towards I (1) behaviour)-- particularly given the inflection around the turn
of the century that seems inconsistent with a deterministic trend.
So the SST
of the tropical Indian Ocean can be taken as rough
graph of global temperature.
Firstly paleoclimate is not driven in any way by CO2 but by the proximity
of planet Earth to supernova which Svensmark has helpfully converted into a nice
graph that is a remarkable fit to
global temperature reconstructions.
Variations in the speed
of the earth's spin in the form
of length
of day may fire the imaginations
of curve - fitters with
graphs like this from Dickey et al (2011) matching Length
of Day against
global temperature shorn
of AGW.
One
of my favorites, lake bottom sediments, from multiple lakes, give a better
Global Temperature graph.
I am wondering why the current (2007)
global temperatures (rolling average) are below the entire envelope
of scenarios given in that
graph.
How hard can be it to drop this
graph on top
of the recent
global temperature trend and see which fits better — the «the more scenarios you have, the more likely you are to get one that is correct, purely by chance?»
This
graph of Global Temperature Anomaly from NCDC shows the global temperature anomaly to be 0.20 °C in 1980 and 0.60 °C in
Global Temperature Anomaly from NCDC shows the global temperature anomaly to be 0.20 °C in 1980 and 0.60
Temperature Anomaly from NCDC shows the
global temperature anomaly to be 0.20 °C in 1980 and 0.60 °C in
global temperature anomaly to be 0.20 °C in 1980 and 0.60
temperature anomaly to be 0.20 °C in 1980 and 0.60 °C in 2010.
But if you google «noaa ocean heat and salt content» and compare the first two
graphs («0 - 700m
global ocean heat content» versus «0 - 2000m
global ocean heat content») you will see that the sea SURFACE
temperature is much more reflective
of what is going on in the atmosphere than the oceans depths.
Here is a new
graph I plotted for the
global mean
temperature trends
of the 20th century = > http://bit.ly/MkdC0k
In the
graph below a slight statistical decline
of global temperatures can be seen after the peak warm year
of 1945.
OK, so apart from the Hockey stick
graph, the disappearance
of the Himalayan glaciers, the melting
of summer Arctic sea ice, the lack
of hurricane activity, the erroneous relationship between malaria and
global warming, the resilience
of corals, the obstinacy
of Tuvalu and the Maldives to disappear to the sea, the manipulation
of instrumental
temperature data... (Gasp for breath!)
But their PNAS publication also referred to natural climate cycles, superimposed on the trend line, like ENSO and solar variability, both
of which have been net contributors to
global cooling over 1998 - 2008 [so climate skeptics can not — as they still do — point to either the Sun or El Niño to explain the world's
temperature graph over that period
of time].
You've likely seen the
graph of the Earth's average
global temperature over the past 2000 years... it's mostly a straight line until you get to the industrial revolution and then it shoots up.
The
graph of global temperature changes since early 2015 is taken directly from the data supplied by the RSS satellite through December, 2016.
First
of all, we all owe Joe Romm thanks for being quick to draw up the natural extension to the Marcott et al.
graph showing the consensus picture
of the near future
global temperature in the light
of this new result:
To convert the annual changes in
global temperature back to the time - series
graph, I used a running total
of the annual changes.
All this
Global Warming if you plot it on a graph with the vertical y - axis incremented in whole degrees you could free hand a straight line starting from the end of the Little Ice Age all the way to the current day and see there has been no dramatic global average temperature change since the turn of the 19th ce
Global Warming if you plot it on a
graph with the vertical y - axis incremented in whole degrees you could free hand a straight line starting from the end
of the Little Ice Age all the way to the current day and see there has been no dramatic
global average temperature change since the turn of the 19th ce
global average
temperature change since the turn
of the 19th century.
I present a
graph from NOAA
of change in average
global temperature from 1880 to today and then show the
graph of the U.S. increase in heavy precipitation days from 1950 to today.
The
graph below (courtesy
of Open Mind) compares the
global temperature trend from before and after adjustments.
This is evident from a
graph of global temperature anomaly over the last 130 years:
When he presented his misleading
graph, when he said 97 %
of climate scientists agree, (knowing full well the actual situation that the number is bogus and misleading,) when he mentions adjustments to satellite data but not to surface
temperatures with major past cooling and absurd derived precision to.005 * C, when he defends precision in surface
global averages but ignores major estimates
of temps and krigging in Arctic, Africa, Asia and oceans or Antarctica, he forfeits credibility.
It showed, if I remember correctly, how a pretty good correlation between calculated and actual
global average
temperatures could be obtained for the last century using the NASA
graphs of various forcings, here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.gif
Any
of the more
global graphs in your list becomes a hockey stick when you combine it with the actually measured
temperatures.
When a
temperature anomaly
of ~ 0.1 degrees Celsius (the difference between 2015 and the previous
global heat record
of 2014 — please note the above
graph is in Fahrenheit, not Celsius) can lead to such an extreme carbon feedback response, we know we can expect a lot more feedback - induced CO2 now that world leaders are about to seal a 3.5 degrees warming deal — if at least 2030 pledges are not raised before the start
of COP21, the Paris climate summit.
Here's something interesting... using either HADCRUT4 or NASA / GISS data, redraw an 1880 - 2013
global temperature graph MINUS the record warm 1998 signal (and if you want also take out the following 1999 cold phase as well since it is all part
of one ENSO wave).