The hubbub was sparked when retired NOAA data scientist John Bates claimed in a blog post that his boss, then - director of the National Centers for Environmental Information Thomas Karl, «constantly had his «thumb on the scale» — in the documentation, scientific choices and release of datasets — in an effort to discredit the notion
of a global warming hiatus» and rushed a study published in the journal Science before international climate negotiations.
Rebuttal to Chen and Tung (2014) highlighted in «Cause for «The Pause» # 38 — Cause
of global warming hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean» Numerous scientific papers have reported the hiatus in global surface warming will end with the next El Niño event.
Gradually, in the months after K15 came out, the evidence kept mounting that Tom Karl constantly had his «thumb on the scale» — in the documentation, scientific choices, and release of datasets — in an effort to discredit the notion
of a global warming hiatus and rush to time the publication of the paper to influence national and international deliberations on climate policy.
Germany's Federal Ministry of Research would prefer to leave any discussion
of the global warming hiatus entirely out of the new IPCC report summary.
Going on 2 decades
of a global warming hiatus and the IPCC is more certain about the validity of AGW theory than ever.
Not exact matches
He points to the fact that Smith is currently investigating the activities
of federal climate scientists whose research last year undermined claims by Climate Change skeptics that
global warming was going through a «
hiatus».
No model, however, has predicted the
global warming hiatus which climate researchers have observed since the turn
of the millennium.
In June 2015, NOAA researchers led by Thomas Karl published a paper in the journal Science comparing the new and previous NOAA sea surface temperature datasets, finding that the rate
of global warming since 2000 had been underestimated and there was no so - called «
hiatus» in
warming in the first fifteen years
of the 21st century.
The deceleration in rising temperatures during this 15 - year period is sometimes referred to as a «pause» or «
hiatus» in
global warming, and has raised questions about why the rate
of surface
warming on Earth has been markedly slower than in previous decades.
The
global warming hiatus — a decade - plus slowdown in
warming — could be chalked up to some buoys, a few extra years
of data and a couple buckets
of seawater.
The term «
global warming hiatus» is a bit
of a misnomer.
A group
of researchers find a new reason for the current
hiatus of global warming: the Atlantic Ocean could be keeping things cooler by drawing heat into its deepest fathoms.
«It has been claimed that the early - 2000s
global warming slowdown or
hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate
of global surface
warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations.
Given that CO2 continues to rise, and given the
hiatus since 1998, could it be that CO2 is not a major driver
of global warming?
Remember the falsification
of global warming due to a few years
of the
hiatus or an ice - free Arctic after a few years
of expanding sea ice?
But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis
of confidence in the field... On a chart
of global atmospheric temperatures, the
hiatus stands in stark contrast to the rapid
warming of the two decades that preceded it.
The net effect
of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface air temperature
of 0.1 — 0.2 °C, which can account for much
of the
hiatus in surface
warming observed since 2001.
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/1141/: «Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center, recently gave a talk on the «
global warming hiatus,» a slowdown in the rise
of the
global mean surface air temperature.
«With the improvements to the land and ocean data sets and the addition
of two more years
of data, NCEI scientists found that there has been no
hiatus in the
global rate
of warming.
These authors mention briefly an important implication
of this connection — the extended drought in the Southern US and the
hiatus in
global mean
warming are related.
Updated, 3:10 p.m. Using climate models and observations, a fascinating study in this week's issue
of Nature Climate Change points to a marked recent
warming of the Atlantic Ocean as a powerful shaper
of a host
of notable changes in climate and ocean patterns in the last couple
of decades — including Pacific wind, sea level and ocean patterns, the decade - plus
hiatus in
global warming and even California's deepening drought.
Record warmth at a time
of only marginal El Niño conditions confirms that there is no «
hiatus»
of global warming, only a moderate slowdown since 2000....
Kosaka and Xie made
global climate simulations in which they inserted specified observed Pacific Ocean temperatures; they found that the model simulated well the observed
global warming slowdown or «
hiatus,» although this experiment does not identify the cause
of Pacific Ocean temperature trends.
Last summer, a team
of government scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), led by Thomas Karl, published a paper in Science titled «Possible Artifacts Of Data Biases In The Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus.&raqu
of government scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), led by Thomas Karl, published a paper in Science titled «Possible Artifacts
Of Data Biases In The Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus.&raqu
Of Data Biases In The Recent
Global Surface
Warming Hiatus.»
The warmists know full well that this kills their greenhouse theory
of global warming and are hard at work trying to explain away the
hiatus.
2nd THEN THEY came with thousands
of press releases about a
GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS.
Yan, X-H., H. Su, and W. Zhang, 2014: Contribution
of global subsurface and deeper ocean
warming to recent
global surface
warming hiatus.
The press release from NOAA included this statement from Karl: «Adding in the last two years
of global surface temperature data and other improvements in the quality
of the observed record provide evidence that contradict the notion
of a
hiatus in recent
global warming trends.»
The crackpots are preparing arguments to blame the return
of the
hiatus on
global warming..
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration responded to a subpoena sent by the Chair
of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, Lamar Smith (R - TX), requesting data and internal communications related to a study conducted on the
global surface
warming hiatus.
Scientists also think that the circulation
of heat from the top layers
of the ocean, which have been most affected to date, to the deeper oceans below may be another factor behind the «
hiatus» in
global warming.
The crux
of Bates» claim is that NOAA, the federal government's top agency in charge
of climate science, published a poorly - researched but widely praised study with the political goal
of disproving the controversial
global warming hiatus theory, which suggests that
global warming slowed down from 1998 until 2012 with little change in globally - averaged surface temperatures — a direct contrast to
global warming advocates» claim that the earth's temperature has been constantly increasing.
Dan Barrie, program manager at NOAA, called the research «compelling» and said: «[It] provides a powerful illustration
of how the remote eastern tropical Pacific guides the behaviour
of the
global ocean - atmosphere system, in this case exhibiting a discernible influence on the recent
hiatus in
global warming.»
Now if someone were to day, as Judith clearly did not although she had many opportunities to do so, that «concurrent with
warming of our oceans there has been a
hiatus in the significantly increasing trend
of global surface temperatures,» then I would have not problem with the logic.
Just as importantly, he says, the model helps to explain regional trends that seem to defy the
global warming hiatus, including record - breaking heat in the United States last year, and the continued decline
of Arctic sea ice.
The study — «Possible Artifacts
of Data Biases in the Recent
Global Surface Warming Hiatus» — was published by Science magazine in June 2015 and pushed back against assertions from other research groups that found a pause in rising global temperatures from 1998 to 2012, which goes against climate change advocates» insistence that the earth's temperature has been on a steady incline for de
Global Surface
Warming Hiatus» — was published by Science magazine in June 2015 and pushed back against assertions from other research groups that found a pause in rising
global temperatures from 1998 to 2012, which goes against climate change advocates» insistence that the earth's temperature has been on a steady incline for de
global temperatures from 1998 to 2012, which goes against climate change advocates» insistence that the earth's temperature has been on a steady incline for decades.
Now if someone were to dsay, as Judith clearly did not although she had many opportunities to do so, that «concurrent with
warming of our oceans there has been a relatively short - term
hiatus in the trend
of significant increase in
global surface temperatures,» then I would not have a problem with the logic.
Since the NOAA paper's publication, several studies as well as a reanalysis
of the original NOAA work have affirmed the finding that there has been no
hiatus in
global warming.
the IPCC - AR5... is the failure
of global climate models to predict a
hiatus in
warming of global surface temperatures since 1998.
Surface
warming / ocean
warming: «A reassessment
of temperature variations and trends from
global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in
global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts
of data biases in the recent
global surface
warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact
of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends»
Vaughan Pratt: An intriguing feature
of the stadium - wave hypothesis is that it purports to explain a 15 - year phenomenon, namely the recent
hiatus in
global warming, in terms
of 300 years worth
of data.
Or even our illustrious host, who testifies before Congress that because there has been a short - term flattening out
of a longer term trend
of rising increase in temps, therefore there is a «
hiatus» in «
global warming?»
Some have construed this as evidence
of a pause in
global warming or a
hiatus.
Surface
warming: «
Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&
Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic
warming has contributed to a continual
global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&
global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability
of the alleged «
hiatus» in
global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&
global warming» «
Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&
Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset»
An intriguing feature
of the stadium - wave hypothesis is that it purports to explain a 15 - year phenomenon, namely the recent
hiatus in
global warming, in terms
of 300 years worth
of data.
One
of the most controversial issues emerging from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is the failure
of global climate models to predict a
hiatus in
warming of global surface temperatures since 1998.
Ocean
warming: «Assessing recent
warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface
warming hiatus» «A review
of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary
warming and its ocean structure since 2006»
But even their combined absorption is not sufficient to raise the
global temperature as the existence
of the
hiatus /
warming proves.
but that ENSO can still cause natural cooling for periods
of a decade or more so that even though the man - made influence continues to cause
warming, it is cancelled by ENSO cooling and results in a «
hiatus»
of global temperature increase:»
To be perfectly clear: Talk
of a «
hiatus» or a «pause» in
global warming has been a contrarian talking point for about a decade, and there is clear evidence that this framing was picked up by the media (see Max Boykoff's article in Nature Climate Change last year) and has now been picked up by some climate scientists.