Sentences with phrase «of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios»

Not exact matches

Headed toward an 8 F rise in warming Other such low - probability but high - risk scenarios mentioned in the report include ecosystem collapses, destabilization of methane stored in the seafloor and rapid greenhouse gas emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost.

Tebaldi and co-author Pierre Friedlingstein, of the University of Exeter, analyzed when scientists would be able to detect the difference between a scenario known as RCP 2.6, where greenhouse gas emissions are curbed quickly, versus two other scenarios outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.

Politics of deferred gratification Under one of the additional scenarios, known as RCP 4.5, humans take longer to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but eventually do so, and under the other, known as RCP 8.5, carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise through 2100.

Under the worst - case scenario (RCP 8.5), which assumes that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the authors show the potential for extremely large net increases in temperature - related mortality in the warmer regions of the world.

Next year's school, «Adaptation and Mitigation: Responses to Climate Change,» will explore topics such as greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the economics of climate change, adaptation and mitigation measures, and climate policies.

«With this tool we can examine not only carbon emissions, but also those of other greenhouse gases, and as a result tease apart the cost - effectiveness of the scenarios as well as identify what and where impacts are likely to occur for a range of resources,» says Daniel Kammen.

Coffel and Radley Horton of Columbia University projected the number of hot summer days under a worst - case greenhouse gas emission scenario for

The researchers find that «ocean - driven melt is an important driver of Antarctic ice shelf retreat where warm water is in contact with shelves, but in high greenhouse - gas emissions scenarios, atmospheric warming soon overtakes the ocean as the dominant driver of Antarctic ice loss.»

In their newly published study, the U-M researchers examined cost, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for different types of 60 - watt - equivalent bulbs and created a computer model to generate multiple replacement scenarios, which were then analyzed.

«This is worrisome given that the temperature in the study region is predicted to rise by as much as 2 degrees by midcentury under the range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions scenarios,» said Avery Cohn, aassistant professor of environment and resource policy at Tufts, who led the work while he was a visiting researcher at Brown.

Scientists used modeling to simulate various growing scenarios, and found a climate footprint ranging from -11 to 10 grams of carbon dioxide per mega-joule — the standard way of measuring greenhouse gas emissions.

Pieter Tans, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who wrapped up the panel, said that while governments and policymakers should still aggressively pursue the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, he did not believe that the most severe IPCC scenario, RCP 8.5, was likely.

They looked at each of those conditions through, first, a business - as - usual lens that assumes a lack of international climate - policy action with continued high rates of greenhouse gas emissions and, second, an optimistic scenario of reduced emissions with climate change policy interventions.

They considered scenarios of either unchecked greenhouse gas emissions or a global reduction in the rate of emissions growth.

To get a sense for how this probability, or risk of such a storm, will change in the future, he performed the same analysis, this time embedding the hurricane model within six global climate models, and running each model from the years 2081 to 2100, under a future scenario in which the world's climate changes as a result of unmitigated growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

Even under a more moderate scenario where greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2040, 100 - year extreme sea levels could increase by 57 centimeters, or nearly 2 feet, on average, by the end of the century, with these events occurring every few years, according to study's authors.

Meehl and his colleagues used two sophisticated computer models of global climate to predict what would happen under various scenarios for greenhouse gas emission controls, taking into account the oceanic time lag.

Global rates of temperature change in high and declining greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Two global scenarios, one of low greenhouse - gas emissions and the other of medium emissions, were created for each model.

IIASA researchers have been involved in greenhouse gas emission projections since the beginning of climate change research in the 1970s, including research on both historical emissions as well as projections for future emissions based on multiple scenarios of economic and population growth and technological change.

PNNL's model scenario limits the heat - trapping effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to levels only 65 percent of what they would reach if no future emissions controls are implemented.

Methods: A global collaboration of scientists responded to a request from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and generated a set of four scenarios to represent future greenhouse gas emissions and land use change.

The model, however, assumes the worst - case scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, offering hope that if emissions are curbed, the impact would be reduced.

«If we assume an optimistic scenario for greenhouse gas emissions — the RCP 2.6 scenario, [see Fact Box] which would result in a warming of about two degrees Celsius — then we can expect an increase in sea level similar to what we see in this video,» says climate modeller Martin Stendel from the Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen.

The scenario began with 2005 conditions of greenhouse gas emissions, land use and technologies, and then allowed the model to simulate greenhouse gas emissions and land use changes until 2100.

To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation models to consider two scenarios of global carbon emissions: one where atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end of the century and the other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5] emission scenarios, respectively).

Our analyses focused on projecting the possible range of temperature and precipitation amounts in Montana, under our chosen greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

• Lead Author, «Technological and Economic Potential of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction,» IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) • Lead Author, «Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications,» IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) • Member, IPCC Task Group on Scenarios and Data for Impacts and Climate Analysis (1998 - present).

(above) Percent increase in number of days per month exceeding the threshold cold temperatures necessary to cause approximately 50 % mortality in mountain pine beetle populations as projected under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e., representative concentration pathways; see Climate chapter) at mid century and end - of - century.

Climate change scenarios are based on projections of future greenhouse gas (particularly carbon dioxide) emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations given various plausible but imagined combinations of how governments, societies, economies, and technologies will change in the future.

These results and the emerging additional regions of highest climate change vulnerability under high emissions scenarios (Figures S7, S8, S9) suggest that global policies that mitigate greenhouse gas emissions will substantially reduce species» climate change vulnerability.

A new framework for climate scenarios research brings an integrated view of economics, demography, and greenhouse gas emissions to the development of emissions scenarios that underlie climate models.

Potential annual damages are shown on the county - level in a scenario in which emissions of greenhouse gasses continue at current rates.

If nations continue to increase their emissions of greenhouse gases in a «business - as - usual» scenario, the U.S. ratio of daily record high to record low temperatures would increase to about 20 to 1 by midcentury and 50 to 1 by 2100.

Action of emerging economies could take several forms, such as sustainable development policies and measures, an improved and strengthened clean development mechanism, the setting up of plans for the sectors that generate most pollution so as to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions compared with a business as usual scenario.

We analyzed the effect of a medium - high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea - level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315 (5810): 36emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea - level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315 (5810): 36Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea - level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315 (5810): 368, 2007).

«In a scenario of zeroed CO2 and sulfate aerosol emissions, whether the warming induced by specified constant concentrations of non-CO2 greenhouse gases could slow the CO2 decline following zero emissions or even reverse this trend and cause CO2 to increase over time is assessed.

The area of near - surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to decline by 20 % relative to today's area by 2040, and could be reduced by as much as two - thirds by 2080 under a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.

Rather, the IPCC has produced various «emissions scenarios» that represent estimates of how greenhouse gas emissions might evolve if humans follow various paths of economic development and population growth.

While the researchers, led by Shaun Marcott of Oregon State, conclude that the globe's current average temperature has not exceeded the warmth that persisted for thousands of years after the last ice age ended, they say it will do so in this century under almost every postulated scenario for greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate models show that by the end of this century, under a business - as - usual emissions scenario where there is no constraint in the amount of greenhouse gas emissions pumped into the atmosphere that ratio could climb to 50:1.

When talking to the media, some have been tempted to push beyond what the science supports — focusing on the high end of projections of global temperatures in 2100 or highlighting the scarier scenarios for emissions of greenhouse gases.

Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios [possible paths for greenhouse gas emissions] adds at least another 5 years.

Some 98 percent of working climate scientists agree that the atmosphere is already warming in response to human greenhouse - gas emissions, and the most recent research suggests that we are on a path toward what were once considered «worst case» scenarios.

Unlike the scenarios developed by the IPCC and reported in Nakicenovic et al. (2000), which examined possible global futures and associated greenhouse - related emissions in the absence of measures designed to limit anthropogenic climate change, RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario and assumes that climate policies, in this instance the introduction of a set of global greenhouse gas emissions prices, are invoked to achieve the goal of limiting emissions and radiative forcing.

The IPCC TAR produced global temperature projections based on a number of possible greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from their Special Report on Emission Scenarioscenarios from their Special Report on Emission ScenariosScenarios (SRES).

C - ROADS C - ROADS is an award - winning computer simulation that helps people understand the long - term climate impacts of policy scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change is also taking a toll on our health, but studies show that the worst of future health risks may be avoided in scenarios in which greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced by mid-century.

In our study we also showed that, while difference between high and low immigration scenarios is 70 Mt of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia's by 2020, the world's greenhouse gas emissions would increase by less than half of this amount since immigrants to Australia come from countries that have per capita emissions levels less than half of Australia's (around 42 %).

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long - term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short - lived species, and land - use - land - cover which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m − 2 (approximately 650 ppm CO2 - equivalent) in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.