Not exact matches
China «could cause some decreases [in stratospheric
aerosols] if that is the source,» Neely says, adding that growing SO2
emissions from India could also increase cooling if
humans are the dominant cause
of injecting
aerosols into the atmosphere.
The results imply that the interaction between organic and sulfuric acids promotes efficient formation
of organic and sulfate
aerosols in the polluted atmosphere because
of emissions from burning
of fossil fuels, which strongly affect
human health and global climate.
A few
of the main points
of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An increasing body
of observations gives a collective picture
of a warming world and other changes in the climate system;
emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols due to
human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability
of models to project future climate has increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to
human activities.
Non-polar glacial ice holds a wealth
of information about past changes in climate, the environment and especially atmospheric composition, such as variations in temperature, atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases and
emissions of natural
aerosols or
human - made pollutants... The glaciers therefore hold the memory
of former climates and help to predict future environmental changes.
The warming commitment if we stop all
human emissions (GHG and
aerosol) is probably very substantial: The cooling effect
of the
aerosol will very quickly disappear, thereby «unmasking» the greenhouse warming, approximately half
of which has been canceled by
aerosol cooling up to now.
Human aerosol emissions are also offsetting a significant amount
of the warming by causing global dimming.
Analyses
of the ground and aircraft data performed by Setyan et al. (2012), Shilling et al. (2013), and Kleinman et al. (2016) showed that organic
aerosol production increased when
human - caused
emissions from Sacramento mixed with air rich in isoprene, an organic compound wafting from many plants that originate in the area's foothills.
And it doesn't change the fundamental fact that
human emissions of CO ₂ are almost certainly responsible for more than 100 %
of the observed warming, once the effect
of aerosols is accounted for.
Some question remains as to how much
of the temporary slowdown in surface warming is due to
human aerosol emissions, how much due to ENSO, how much due to heat being transferred to the deep oceans, and so forth.
Greenhouse gases can be attributed to about 0.9 °C
of this warming, but it has been partially offset by about 0.3 °C cooling from
human aerosol emissions.
Obviously, my method (likewise yours) ignores other long term forcings - specifically CFC
emissions that stopped in late 80s +
human aerosols seems to be important players here - inclusion
of other forcings may change the result.
The IPCC model projections
of future warming based on the varios SRES and
human emissions only (both GHG warming and
aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.
Scientists found that
emissions of tiny air particles from
human - made sources — known as anthropogenic
aerosols — were the cause.
So Nielsen - Gammon is correct to note that some
of the slowed surface temperature warming over the past decade can be attributed to La Niña, although there have been other influences at play as well, such as
human aerosol emissions.
Somewhere there should also be a cost in
human health bill for coal and gas — related to other aspects
of fossil fuel epidemiology — like poisoning from mercury from coal
emissions or asthma from
aerosols from gas plants.
Emissions -
Emissions of heat - trapping gases (greenhouse gases), greenhouse - gas precursors, and
aerosols associated with
human activities.
To prevent catastrophic global warming
human greenhouse gas
emission must cease, but this will also end the
aerosol cooling effect and the full heating effect
of our «Faustian bargain» will be revealed.
Note that while the BEST approach is based on correlations, they are correlations
of variables with known causal relationships (i.e. an increased greenhouse effect is known to cause global warming), although they do not appear to have considered some important influences like
human aerosol emissions or the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
These NCA
emissions directly affect particle concentrations and
human exposure to nanosized
aerosol in urban areas, and potentially may act as nanosized condensation nuclei for the condensation
of atmospheric low - volatile organic compounds.
All
of these studies find that
humans are responsible for close to 100 %
of the observed global warming over the past 50 years, and
human greenhouse gas
emissions are responsible for close to 150 %
of the observed warming, with
human aerosol (sulfur dioxide - SO2)
emissions offsetting approximately one - third to one - half
of that greenhouse warming.
To slow the rate
of anthropogenic - induced climate change in the 21st century and to minimize its eventual magnitude, societies will need to manage the climate forcing factors that are directly influenced by
human activities, in particular greenhouse gas and
aerosol emissions.
There is a fairly large degree
of uncertainty in these figures, primarily because the magnitude
of the cooling effect from
human aerosol emissions is not well known.
We have recently discussed several papers which have found substantial global dimming as a result
of increased
human aerosol emissions from 1950 to 1980 and 2000 to 2010.
The Summary Report
of the World Climate Change Conference in 2003 concluded: «An overwhelming majority
of the scientific community has accepted (the IPCC's) general conclusions that climate change is occurring, is primarily a result
of human emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, and that this represents a threat to people and ecosystems.»
Examining the output
of climate models run under increases in
human emissions of greenhouse gas and
aerosols, Troy Masters noted a robust relationship between the modeled rate
of heat uptake in the global oceans and the modeled climate sensitivity.
The black line, reconstructed from ISCCP satellite data, «is a purely statistical parameter that has little physical meaning as it does not account for the non-linear relations between cloud and surface properties and planetary albedo and does not include
aerosol related albedo changes such as associated with Mt. Pinatubo, or
human emissions of sulfates for instance» (Real Climate).
In other words, the slowed surface warming isn't a result
of a smaller global energy imbalance due to factors like increased cooling from
human aerosol emissions.
These were local phenomena and there are no empirical data supporting the notion that
human aerosols caused a 30 - year cycle
of slight global cooling, despite rapidly accelerating increases in CO2
emissions and concentrations.
If the first order
human climate forcings (e.g., agriculture & deforestation changes in methane
emissions, albedo, and
aerosols) other than CO2
emissions are positive and the same order
of magnitude as CO2, then the CO2 sensitivity must be lower.
The warming commitment if we stop all
human emissions (GHG and
aerosol) is probably very substantial: The cooling effect
of the
aerosol will very quickly disappear, thereby «unmasking» the greenhouse warming, approximately half
of which has been canceled by
aerosol cooling up to now.
The identification
of other, sometimes more powerful, greenhouse gases such as methane, the contributions to atmospheric carbon dioxide from other
human activities such as deforestation and cement manufacture, better understanding
of the temperature - changing properties
of atmospheric pollution such as sulphur
emissions,
aerosols and their importance in the post-1940s northern hemisphere cooling: the knowledge - base was increasing year by year.
Radiative forcing is a way to quantify an energy imbalance imposed on the climate system either externally (e.g., solar energy output or volcanic
emissions) or by
human activities (e.g., deliberate land modification or
emissions of greenhouse gases,
aerosols, and their precursors).
Warming from decade to decade can also be affected by
human factors such as variations in the
emissions, from coal - fired power plants and other pollution sources,
of greenhouse gases and
of aerosols (airborne particles that can have both warming and cooling effects).
As stated earlier, I agree with the point that tropospheric
aerosols from fossil fuels are incredibly bad for
human health and other environmental impacts (black carbon soot, acid rain, radioactive
emissions, mercury poisoning), putting us in a situation
of damned if we do, damned if we don't.
Emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and
of reactive gases such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons, which lead to the formation
of secondary pollutants including
aerosol particles and tropospheric ozone, have increased substantially in response to
human activities.
If we add in the warming effects
of the other long - lived greenhouse gases, the best estimate rises to 1.22 °C surface warming caused by
human emissions (we've only observed ~ 0.8 °C warming because much
of that has been offset by
human aerosol emissions).
The climate feedbacks involved with these changes, which are key in understanding the climate system as a whole, include: + the importance
of aerosol absorption on climate + the impact
of aerosol deposition which affects biology and, hence,
emissions of aerosols and
aerosol precursors via organic nitrogen, organic phosphorus and iron fertilization + the importance
of land use and land use changes on natural and anthropogenic
aerosol sources + the SOA sources and impact on climate, with special attention on the impact
human activities have on natural SOA formation In order to quantitatively answer such questions I perform simulations
of the past, present and future atmospheres, and make comparisons with measurements and remote sensing data, all
of which help understand, evaluate and improve the model's parameterizations and performance, and our understanding
of the Earth system.
Hot off the press, in yesterday's Journal
of Climate, Nic Lewis and Judith Curry have re-calculated the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based upon the historical uptake
of heat into the ocean and
human emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols.