And they conclude: «When we take these into consideration, what we are left with from the apparent hiatus is not inconsistent with the understanding
of human influence on global climate.
Not exact matches
These fluctuations superimpose the general
global warming trend since the beginning
of industrialization and thus complicate the accurate determination
of human influence on the
climate.
At this point, the Earth is probably
on the threshold
of an entirely new epoch in which the
global climate and the distribution
of life will be strongly
influenced by a single species:
humans.
In the 1995 second assessment report (SAR) the IPCC made the widely quoted statement that «The balance
of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate».
This is despite the fact that in 1995 the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) said «the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.
Climate Change (IPCC) said «the balance
of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate.
climate.»
Unfortunately for policymakers and the public, while the basic science pointing to a rising
human influence on climate is clear, many
of the most important questions will remain surrounded by deep complexity and uncertainty for a long time to come: the pace at which seas will rise, the extent
of warming from a certain buildup
of greenhouse gases (
climate sensitivity), the impact
on hurricanes, the particular effects in particular places (what
global warming means for Addis Ababa or Atlanta).
It is extremely likely that more than half
of the
global mean temperature increase since 1951 was caused by
human influence on climate (high confidence).
* The role
of the US in
global efforts to address pollutants that are broadly dispersed across national borders, such as greenhouse gasses, persistent organic pollutants, ozone, etc...; * How they view a president's ability to
influence national science policy in a way that will persist beyond their term (s), as would be necessary for example to address
global climate change or enhancement
of science education nationwide; * Their perspective
on the relative roles that scientific knowledge, ethics, economics, and faith should play in resolving debates over embryonic stem cell research, evolution education,
human population growth, etc... * What specific steps they would take to prevent the introduction
of political or economic bias in the dissemination and use
of scientific knowledge; * (and many more...)
Global Warming vs
Climate Change,» an interesting new study of Americans» perceptions of the two dominant shorthand phrases used to describe the building human influence on the climate
Climate Change,» an interesting new study
of Americans» perceptions
of the two dominant shorthand phrases used to describe the building
human influence on the
climate climate system.
The famous conclusion
of the IPCC, «The balance
of evidence suggests that there is a discernible
human influence on global climate», does not depend
on any reconstruction for the past millennium.
I've been criticized by some environmentalists in recent years for writing that the long - term picture (more CO2 = warmer world = less ice = higher seas and lots
of climatic and ecological changes) is the only aspect
of human - caused
global warming that is solidly established, and that efforts to link dramatic weather - related events to the
human influence on climate could backfire should nature wiggle the other way for awhile.
Weart is best known to Dot Earth regulars as the author
of the essential guide to 100 years
of research pointing to a
human influence on climate, «The Discovery
of Global Warming» (here's my 2003 review
of that book for The Times).
The journal Science has published a letter signed by 255 members
of the National Academy
of Sciences, including 11 Nobel laureates, that pushes back sharply after months
of assaults
on evidence pointing to a growing and disruptive
human influence on the
climate and some
of the researchers who've done important work
on global warming.
This result would be strongly dependent
on the exact dynamic response
of the Greenland ice sheet to surface meltwater, which is modeled poorly in todays
global models.Yes
human influence on the
climate is real and we might even now be able to document changes in the behavior
of weather phenomena related to disasters (e.g., Emanuel 2005), but we certainly haven't yet seen it in the impact record (i.e., economic losses)
of extreme events.
Hundreds
of private e-mails and documents hacked from a computer server at a British university are causing a stir among
global warming skeptics, who say they show that
climate scientists conspired to overstate the case for a
human influence on climate change.
Almost all the experts I've talked to in 20 years
of exploring the entwined
climate and energy challenges agree that satisfying
global energy demand while limiting
human influence on climate will require revolutionary advances in both policy and technology.
The small batch
of rich and fast - growing countries that dominate the
global economy — and the
human influence on the
global atmosphere — are convening again under an effort initiated by the United States and aimed at creating partnerships and programs
on climate and energy.
Many
of those promoting stasis in the face
of a clear need for a
global energy quest have used this saga as a kind
of «blackwash» that will long linger like a cloud, tainting public appreciation
of even the undisputed basics
of science pointing to a rising
human influence on climate.
For a long time there's been a strong perception among those
of us tracking research
on human - caused
global warming that meteorologists are more apt to doubt that
humans could dangerously disrupt
climate than the much smaller community
of climatologists studying the overall
climate system and what
influences its patterns.
Most, if not all,
of these
human influences on regional and
global climate will continue to be
of concern during the coming decades.»
Trenberth argues that since science / physics has already established the
human influence on climate, oceans, etc. (and Curry would not say otherwise) it makes more sense for Curry to have to show that there is no
influence on water vapor and precipitation (i.e., intensification
of storm activity / heavy precipitation) than to show that there is, because
of basic physics / physical systems / physical relationships that constitute the
global climate cycle.
Contrary to Stewart's claim that the world was united by scientific evidence in the early 1990s, even by 1995, there was still only the «suggestion»,
on the «balance
of evidence», that there had been a «discernible
human influence on global climate» — and that's in the Summary for Policymakers document, which has consistently been far more alarmist than the more technical parts
of the report.
Our ability to quantify the
human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise
of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors.
We're not offering a «counter-claim» about the science, because our position is that even the concrete, incontrovertible, unassailable fact
of human influence on global warming and
climate change does not, by itself, make a case for action.
One characterisation
of the IPCC is that it is politically motivated to exaggerate the dangers
of global warming and the level
of human influence on climate change.
The second IPCC report, published in 1995, invoked the «sulfate - aerosol effect» and produced the memorable but essentially meaningless phrase that «the balance
of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate.»
By your admission, your interest in the technology came before much
of your «education
on Global Warming;» and I think this reinforces the point many have brought out in this thread: Cars like the Volt are very much worthwhile regardless
of whether or not
humans are
influencing climate change.
Most, if not all,
of these
human influences on regional and
global climate will continue to be
of con - cern during the coming decades.
The models, in important ways that were once claimed to be proof
of ``... a discernible
human influence on global climate», are now shown to be FUBAR.
While natural sources
of climate variability are significant, multiple lines
of evidence indicate that
human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect
on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century.
But, for the 2nd Assessment Report, the authors claimed there was a «discernable
human influence on global climate», which is similar to a score
of 6 («more likely than not»).
«Ben was famously responsible for the IPCC 1995 Report's landmark statement that there was a «discernible
human influence on global climate», a message now strongly reinforced by a further 12 years
of scientific research,» says Professor Barry Brook, Director
of RIsCCS at the University
of Adelaide.
But by the mid-1990s, thousands
of lines
of independent inquiry supported the conclusion summarized in the 1995 IPCC report: «The balance
of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate.»
When combining all this very obvious evidence, one can fairly surmise that either
global warming is not very «
global» or that
human CO2 emissions are not a very powerful
influence on the Earth's
climate or institutional, orthodoxy
climate science has failed, badly - or maybe it's a lot
of all three.
2 «The balance
of evidence suggests that there is a discernible
human influence on global climate» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Second Assessment Repor
climate» Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (United Nations), Second Assessment Repor
Climate Change (United Nations), Second Assessment Report, 1996
Interesting that they state: Peter Stott, Head
of Climate Attribution at the Met Office, said: «Our research shows current global average temperatures are highly unlikely in a world without human influence on the c
Climate Attribution at the Met Office, said: «Our research shows current
global average temperatures are highly unlikely in a world without
human influence on the
climateclimate.
And when the energy - short 1970s turned into the energy surplus
of the 1980s, RFF's angst shifted to issues surrounding a
human influence on global climate, primarily from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the burning
of coal, oil, and natural gas.
«It is extremely likely that
human influence on climate caused more than half
of the observed increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 − 2010.»
«There is evidence
of an emerging pattern
of climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols... from the geographical, seasonal and vertical patterns
of temperature change... These results point toward a
human influence on global climate.»
The word «discernible» was substituted for «detectable» after long debate in Madrid, but the uncertain and possibly false claim
of «detectable»
human influence on global climate remained.
A friend told me there was a
global conspiracy involving nearly all
of the world's governments, most
of the world's scientists and the media to convince the public that there is a major
human influence on climate when they were well aware there was no evidence for this.
He recalled that in its last major statement
on this topic, the IPCC noted that «our ability to quantify the
human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise
of natural variability and because there are uncertainties in key factors.»
Nonetheless, the IPCC concluded that «the balance
of evidence suggests that there is a discernible
human influence on global climate.»
It is unlikely that
human influence on climate caused more than half
of the increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 - 2010.
Because no tool is available to test the supposition
of human - induced
climate change and the range
of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible
human influence on global climate at this time».
Benjamin D. Santer, a
climate scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory whose work for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was challenged by the Global Climate Coalition and allied groups, said the coalition was «engaging in a full - court press at the time, trying to cast doubt on the bottom - line conclusion of the I.P.C.C.» That panel concluded in 1995 that «the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.
climate scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory whose work for the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change was challenged by the Global Climate Coalition and allied groups, said the coalition was «engaging in a full - court press at the time, trying to cast doubt on the bottom - line conclusion of the I.P.C.C.» That panel concluded in 1995 that «the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.
Climate Change was challenged by the
Global Climate Coalition and allied groups, said the coalition was «engaging in a full - court press at the time, trying to cast doubt on the bottom - line conclusion of the I.P.C.C.» That panel concluded in 1995 that «the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.&
Global Climate Coalition and allied groups, said the coalition was «engaging in a full - court press at the time, trying to cast doubt on the bottom - line conclusion of the I.P.C.C.» That panel concluded in 1995 that «the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.
Climate Coalition and allied groups, said the coalition was «engaging in a full - court press at the time, trying to cast doubt
on the bottom - line conclusion
of the I.P.C.C.» That panel concluded in 1995 that «the balance
of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate.&
global climate.
climate.»
Although Pielke accepts that the evidence for
human influence on the
climate system is robust, he stresses that the goal
of cutting
global carbon emissions is incompatible with economic growth for the world's poorest 1.5 billion people.
lolwot: Does the Otto et al constraint
of 0.9 to 2.0 °C TCS not support the IPCC statement «It is extremely likely that
human influence on climate caused more than half
of the increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 - 2010.»?
It is extremely likely that
human influence on climate caused more than half
of the increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 - 2010.
«The balance
of evidence suggests that there is a discernible
human influence on global climate» Intergovernmental Panel.