During the press conference, Mary Erickson, deputy director of National Weather Service, touted the increased accuracy
of hurricane forecasts resulting from investments into improving models.
Public perceptions
of hurricane forecasts tend to focus on uncertainty and conflicting predictions.
«The president just stripped the Department of Homeland Security of its leader, was blasted by the outgoing head
of hurricane forecasting for how his budget cuts could set back this work, and lacks any experience (as a senator or governor) with navigating a difficult disaster response.
Joining Crichton on climate change issues was William Gray
of hurricane forecasting fame, Richard Benedick (a negotiator on the Montreal Protocol on ozone - depleting chemicals), and David Sandalow (Brookings Institution).
Here's the scene in the Miami forecasting center, which illustrates why the midpoint
of hurricane forecast tracks is relatively meaningless:
Here's the scene in the Miami forecasting center, which illustrates why the midpoint
of hurricane forecast tracks is relatively meaningless: Read more...
Dr. Gray was a pioneer in the field
of hurricane forecasting, and produced a lot of valuable scientific papers.
Most of these issues were raised by members
of the hurricane forecasting community.
Not exact matches
American Airlines lowers its revenue
forecast in the wake
of Hurricane Irma, which hit its hub in Miami.
The National
Hurricane Center, for example, relies on the «cone
of uncertainty» which generates a five - day
forecast.
The National
Hurricane Center
forecasts that Irma could go through South Florida, up through the rest
of the state, and into Georgia.
The National
Hurricane Center's best - known report is an official five - day
forecast, which depicts a storm's center
of circulation and its surrounding «cone
of uncertainty.»
Oct 30 (Reuters)-
Hurricane Sandy appears to have easily caused more losses than last year's
Hurricane Irene, but final totals will be hard to come by for some time because
of the scale
of the disaster, catastrophe
forecasting companies said on Tuesday.
For instance, before the 2005
hurricane season, a Bermuda cat - bond hedge fund called Nephila found a team
of oceanographers in Rhode Island called Accurate Environmental
Forecasting, whose
forecasts of hurricane seasons had been surprisingly good.
The
forecasting service is expecting at least four more named storms, two
of which may be
hurricane strength, and at least one
of which may be a major
hurricane.
«Some strengthening is
forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major
hurricane status by Thursday,» said the NHC in its latest advisory, which also called for «catastrophic flash flooding» in parts
of Puerto Rico.
Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice
of the Weather Channel is
forecasting windspeeds
of up to 180 mph, which he described as the «highest windspeed
forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs
of Atlantic
hurricane forecasting.»
These are the highest windspeed
forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs
of Atlantic
hurricane forecasting.
The best historical analogue for a
hurricane that follows NHC's 5 pm EDT Friday track and intensity forecast for Irma may be Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 m
hurricane that follows NHC's 5 pm EDT Friday track and intensity
forecast for Irma may be
Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 m
Hurricane Donna
of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast
of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.
When there's a spate
of major
hurricanes, people tend to wonder if we're entering an era
of bigger and more powerful storms, says Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather, a Pennsylvania - based company that provides
forecasts.
«It becomes especially difficult to
forecast during
hurricane season where you don't want to run the risk
of running out
of product if ports close while still being cognizant
of product shelf life.
On the bright side,
forecasts show that
Hurricane Maria is weakening, with sustained wind speeds
of 80 miles per hour, and is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by Tuesday.
The storm is
forecast to be at Category 1
hurricane strength when it makes landfall tonight just south
of New Orleans.
The National
Hurricane Center in Miami has generated a
forecast track for
Hurricane Joaquin that closely follows the path Superstorm Sandy took, raising a New York City strike higher on the list
of possibilities.
The 2017
hurricane season has highlighted the critical need to communicate a storm's impact path and intensity accurately, but new research from the University
of Utah shows significant misunderstandings
of the two most commonly used storm
forecast visualization methods.
«There are pros and cons for each method
of showing
hurricane forecasts.
This type
of risk assessment is inaccurate because
forecast scientists choose how many lines they want to show — meaning that ensemble
forecasts rarely show all the possible paths the
hurricane could take.
NOAA would receive a total
of $ 120.9 million for
hurricane research efforts including mapping and charting, and
hurricane intensity and flood
forecasting.
Six to 10
of those storms are likely to reach
hurricane strength, the agency said in its initial
forecast for the 2011 storm season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 1.
Scientists working to improve storm intensity
forecasting have identified a more accurate means
of predicting a
hurricane's strength as it approaches landfall, using sea temperature readings that they say will help forecasters better prepare communities for storm impacts in the face
of sea - level rise caused by rising global temperatures.
Instead, most modelers accommodate the inevitable uncertainties by averaging over many runs
of each scenario and displaying a likely range
of outcomes, much like landfall
forecasts for
hurricanes.
Much
of our understanding
of evacuation decisions comes from
hurricanes, which usually have a long warning time, can be reasonably
forecasted, and for which evacuation is the best choice.
Gray's team will come out with its latest
forecast for this year's
hurricane season at the end
of this week, having previously predicted 17 storms this season.
This information collaboration is vital to scientific understanding
of the atmosphere and the oceans, as well as essential for accurate
forecasts and timely warnings
of hurricanes, typhoons, and other severe weather.
Others, such as a new microsatellite system aiming to improve measurements
of hurricane intensity and a highly anticipated new computer simulation that
forecasts hurricane paths and intensities, are still in the calibration phase.
A University
of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School
of Marine and Atmospheric Science research team is studying sea spray to help improve
forecasting of hurricanes and tropical cyclones.
Powerful
hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria are also providing a testing ground for new tools that scientists hope will save lives by improving
forecasts in various ways, from narrowing a storm's future path to capturing swift changes in the intensity
of storm winds.
The advent
of Doppler radar in the 1950s gave meteorologists new powers to «read» the air and transformed how they
forecast tornadoes and
hurricanes.
«By improving our understanding
of the processes that drive tropical cyclones and
hurricanes, we will be better positioned to improve our ability to
forecast these events and their impacts with longer and longer lead times,» he says.
Gabriel Vecchi, head
of the climate variations and predictability group at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab and another author on the paper, says decades
of weather prediction data show that
forecasts have improved — and will improve — as scientists learn more about
hurricanes.
He's now one
of the leading experts in
forecasting the Atlantic
hurricane season.
«Light - based method improves practicality and quality
of remote wind measurements: Innovative technology could aid
hurricane forecasting, aircraft safety and wind energy generation.»
«We believe this first study
of rogue waves occurring over space and time during
hurricanes will help improve real - time
forecasting for shipping companies and other organizations that need to understand the risk
of extreme events in the oceans.»
The 2016 NOAA
forecast calls for a total
of 10 to 16 named storms, including both tropical storms and
hurricanes.
The
forecast predicts between four and eight named storms may become
hurricanes — organized, rotating storms with sustained winds
of 74 mph (119 km / h) or faster.
For the eastern Pacific, NOAA is
forecasting 13 to 20 named storms, including six to 11
hurricanes,
of which three to six are expected to be major
hurricanes.
Without more detailed satellite observations, extending the range
of accurate weather
forecasts — especially for such extreme events as
hurricanes — would be severely restricted.
Artist's rendering
of NASA's ISS - RapidScat instrument (inset), which will launch to the International Space Station in 2014 to measure ocean surface wind speed and direction and help improve weather
forecasts, including
hurricane monitoring.
The
forecast is currently for 11 to 17 storms to form,
of which five to nine are expected to become
hurricanes, and two to four major
hurricanes
That program was established by NOAA in 2009, in part as a response to the pummeling the U.S. received from a number
of hurricanes during the early years
of that decade and the relative lack
of progress made in improving
forecasts up to that point.