Sentences with phrase «of hurricane predictions»

Not exact matches

With flooding continuing in Houston, plus more than a foot of rain likely still to come through Friday, predictions of damage have ranged as high as $ 100 billion, and Wall Street and Washington are braced for the repercussions of the costliest U.S. natural disaster since Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

NOAA would receive an additional $ 50 million for research weather supercomputing infrastructure and for improvement of satellite ground services used in hurricane intensity and track prediction.

National Hurricane Center is the division of National Weather Service's Tropical Prediction Center responsible for tracking and predicting the likely behavior of tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

«We can now use our data from Manhattan after Super Storm Sandy to make predictions about how diversity may change in Houston after Hurricane Harvey and in the urban centers of Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Irma and Maria, among other areas affected by these storms.»

Public perceptions of hurricane forecasts tend to focus on uncertainty and conflicting predictions.

But more data from this crucial region is needed to improve predictions of just how strong a hurricane might get.

The Dire predictions of more and more powerful hurricanes have been demonstrated to be false.

He said scientists need about a century's worth of good data to start making sophisticated predictions about the influence of human - caused climate change on hurricane frequency.

A summary of the studies, released last month, warns of a nonlinear relationship between the strength of future storms and potential losses, which stand to grow even if the worst predictions about hurricanes aren't realized.

Gabriel Vecchi, head of the climate variations and predictability group at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab and another author on the paper, says decades of weather prediction data show that forecasts have improved — and will improve — as scientists learn more about hurricanes.

What's more, whereas many models tend to overestimate the intensity of hurricanes in their predictions, theirs was a much closer match to historical observations, the researchers report online in Geophysical Research Letters.

Regardless of the root cause, though, the discovery of the central Pacific hot spot should lead to better hurricane predictions and fewer surprises.

NOAA evaluates the accuracy of its seasonal forecasts each year, with the aim of seeing the number of storms fall in the given ranges at least 70 percent of the time, which they do consistently, Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said.

Seeing himself as a strict empiricist whose hurricane predictions are based on decades of «crunching huge piles of data,» Gray is convinced that the atmosphere is too complicated to be captured in computer simulations, at one point fulminating that «any experienced meteorologist that believes in a climate model of any type should have their head examined.»

European and U.S. models frequently make different predictions about weather and storm tracks, including that of Hurricane Joaquin.

«Intensity of hurricanes: New study helps improve predictions of storm intensity.»

Each December, six months before the start of hurricane season, the now 75 - year - old Gray and his team issue a long - range prediction of the number of major tropical storms that will arise in the Atlantic Ocean basin, as well as the number of hurricanes (with sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or more) and intense hurricanes (with winds of at least 111 mph).

«Fortunately, we've reduced the upper end, the number of major hurricanes,» said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.

By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a modeling system with seasonal skill in regional hurricane prediction.

Bell said that he and his office, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, have been fielding questions about the August lull in Atlantic hurricanes and whether it would cause his forecast team to soften its May and August outlooks, which concluded that the 2013 season had a 70 percent chance of being more active than normal.

While New Yorkers boarded up windows and stockpiled canned vegetables in preparation for Hurricane Irene, Curtis LaForche (Michael Shannon) is faced with an even more fraught dilemma: Predictions of this storm stem not from the weather report, but from within his own mind.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Prediction Center A good place to go for current advisories, reviews of previous years» hurricanes, and historical storm data (e.g., deadliest, most expensive, most intense storms).

«Max Mayfield, director of the Tropical Prediction Center at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla., also heightened awareness of the tropical multi-decadal signal when testifying at a congressional hearing earlier this year (Sept. 20, 2005).

However, I don't agree that Al Gore is sensationalizing hurricanes — what Gore is saying is certainly in the realm of possibilities, and although Gore's general message is dead on (and I do think is being confirmed by events such as rapid arctic melting), I don't expect 100 % certainty in his predictions (especially since it seems that the lessening of snow on Mt. Kilimanjaro isn't due to global warming.

Approximately 1300 five - day idealized simulations are performed using a higher - resolution version of the GFDL hurricane prediction system (grid spacing as fine as 9 km, with 42 levels).»

That's an excerpt from the latest extended forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the superstorm that nearly all computer simulations see developing in a few days as the remains of Hurricane Sandy — which has already killed at least 21 people in the Caribbean — collide over the East Coast with a cold front sweeping in from the west.

What if Emanuel's observations turn out to mean that the effect of SST on hurricane intensity is larger than the theoretical prediction?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in May projected between a dozen and 16 named storms, including 2 to 5 major hurricanes (those above Category 3 on the Saffir - Simpson scale of storm strength).

All in all the science of hurricanes does appear to be much more fun and interesting than the average climate change issue, as there is a debate, a «fight» between different hypothesis, predictions compared to near - future observations, and all that does not always get pre-eminence in the exchanges about models.

Note to reporters: a scientist's willingness to make predictions of the future is an indication of the current level of understanding of the science; for example Hansen et al predicted that Pinatubo's eruption in 1991 would produce a significant aerosol cooling effect, and they were right; but would anyone be willing to predict that La Nina (assuming conditions set in) will result in a record hurricane season this fall?

(As an aside, we wonder how Gray, who is largely known for prediction of hurricane behavior based on (statistical) modeling, felt about this?).

Can anyone here cogently explain the physical basis for the prediction that warming from CO2 would increase the frequency or strength of hurricanes?

The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above - normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center... 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Their work encompasses a range of problems and time scales: from five - day model predictions of hurricane track and intensity, to understanding the causes of changes in extremes over the past century, to building new climate prediction models for seamless predictions out to the next several years, to earth system model projections of human - caused changes in various extremes (heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, etc.) over the coming century.

Some of their criticisms were valid, like questioning the more extreme predictions for ocean - level rise or the dubious link to hurricanes, and they were certainly right to bring up the cost - benefit analysis of cap - and - trade.

As an excellent example of how vulnerability could be assessed without using multi-decadal regional climate predictions (in this case for landfalling hurricanes), but using the historical record, I refer you to the paper

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, which has updated its 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, there is a 90 % chance of a below - normal hurricane season and a lower chance of expected storm activity in the United States tHurricane Season Outlook, there is a 90 % chance of a below - normal hurricane season and a lower chance of expected storm activity in the United States thurricane season and a lower chance of expected storm activity in the United States this year.

The Sarasota Herald - Tribune's investigative piece tells the story of how an entity that provides hurricane predictions to the insurance industry came up with a new approach to hurricane forecasting following an informal four - hour discussion involving four experts.

His Climategate fame is derived from his concern about a «travesty» that «we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment,» in addition to his other failed predictions such as future hurricane horrors while administering discipline as one of the scientific journal brown shirts.

James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, agreed and linked the NAO to Indian monsoons, Atlantic hurricanes and sea ice in the Arctic.

What is increasing is not cat 4/5 hurricanes, but the prediction of same.

The predictions of alarmist scientists are frequently hysterical, and most often wrong, as was globally witnessed with the Hurricane Irene forecasts.

Regarding the referenced North Atlantic 2010 hurricane predictions calling for above average activity, the 2009 North Atlantic ACE Index was 52, less than 1/2 of normal.

-- Muller believes humans are changing climate with CO2 emissions — humans have been responsible for «most» of a 0.4 C warming since 1957, almost none of the warming before then — IPCC is in trouble due to sloppy science, exaggerated predictions; chairman will have to resign — the «Climategate» mails were not «hacked» — they were «leaked» by an insider — due to «hide the decline» deception, Muller will not read any future papers by Michael Mann — there has been no increase in hurricanes or tornadoes due to global warming — automobiles are insignificant in overall picture — China is the major CO2 producer, considerably more than USA today — # 1 priority for China is growth of economy — global warming is not considered important — China CO2 efficiency (GDP per ton CO2) is around one - fourth of USA today, has much room for improvement — China growth will make per capita CO2 emissions at same level as USA today by year 2040 — if it is «not profitable» it is «not sustainable» — US energy future depends on shale gas for automobiles; hydrogen will not be a factor — nor will electric cars, due to high cost — Muller is upbeat on nuclear (this was recorded pre-Fukushima)-- there has been no warming in the USA — Muller was not convinced of Hansen's GISS temperature record; hopes BEST will provide a better record.

Imagine knowing how your city or state will cope with drier and warmer conditions over the next 30 years; imagine getting a tornado warning an hour in advance providing an opportunity to get your family properly sheltered; imagine being able to evacuate only those coastal residents that will be directly impacted by a hurricane and not unnecessarily clearing hundreds of miles of the coast; imagine being able to tell a fire incident manager where the fire front will be in 6 hrs; imagine airline routing system that knows where a squall line will be in 12 hrs and the resulting efficiency in airport acceptance rates; or imagine air quality predictions that would allow the time for special precautions to be taken for those at risk.

«We have groups doing numerical weather prediction, hurricanes, climate, oceans, but in the international arena, countries have whole institutions doing the functions of these individual groups,» said Dr. Ronald J. Stouffer, who designs and runs climate models at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., a top Commerce Department center for weather and climate work.

Precise predictions of hurricane tracks and intensity; heavy rain; severe storms; fire weather; air quality and chemistry, and climate change address societal challenges that include disaster mitigation, economic decision making, health concerns, travel and workplace safety, long range planning, and day to day decisions (an umbrella or a heavy coat, for example).

b. Big Oil and Big Coal are not different from «Big Insurance» (e.g. «prediction» of more hurricanes as tool to increase insurance primes) and «Big Banking» (huge investments with tax money, via Government).

Though these statistical predictions can not portend when any of the storms will form or where they will go, Klotzbach, Gray and colleagues calculate an 81 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast in 2006.

Thus, the long - term reality of 0.63 major hurricanes striking the U.S. every year yielded to a prediction of 0.90.