Sentences with phrase «of hurricane trends»
The same issue has played out in discussions of hurricane trends in a warming world.
https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/ Not exact matches
But hurricanes are also influenced and steered by massive global trends in weather that are hard to predict: The warming or cooling of waters in the Pacific (El Niño and La Niña) and patterns like the Madden - Julian oscillation (an eastward - moving weather system that circles the globe every month or so and makes thunderstorms more likely) all play a role.
The pattern isn't as evident in the northern Atlantic Ocean as it is in the southern Indian Ocean and the southern Pacific Ocean, but if the trend continues, it means more intense hurricanes in places of greater population.
«Even if we take the extreme of these error estimates, we are left with a significant trend since 1890 and a significant trend in major hurricanes starting anytime before 1920,» say atmospheric scientists Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., and Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta.
Hurricane Irene is part of a worsening trend.
The relatively short time period of quality hurricane records makes detecting such trends difficult, though.
Globally, estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes show a significant upward trend since the mid-1970s, with a trend towards longer lifetimes and greater storm intensity, and such trends are strongly correlated with tropical SST.
If we think of hurricanes as Stirling heat engines, then we realize that the two reservoirs are the mixed layer of the surface ocean (1) and the upper atmosphere (2); note that there is a general trend of stratospheric cooling as well.
Some point to periods of intense hurricane activity in Earth's past and worry that such trends may return.
Since the mid 1970's, global estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes show an upward trend strongly correlated with increasing tropical sea - surface temperature.
When you add in climate trends including sea level rise, which can increase the height of storm surge, and projections of fewer but more intense hurricanes, you have a recipe for increased vulnerability and losses in these regions in the future.
Ms. Martinez and I often joke that we've outlasted most of our friends» marriages, not to mention presidential administrations, health care reforms, hurricanes and fashion trends.
When I adopted two kittens from a shelter a couple of weeks ago — both as adorable as anything can possibly be, but with the relentless destructive energy of two tiny hurricanes — I didn't realize that I was bucking a trend: America's pet population is dropping, apparently (like so many things today) a casualty of our uncertain economy.
According to the most recent evidence, there does not seem to be any sort of trend toward more hurricane activity and the signal for a possible increase in intensity is weak.
You write that Emanuel's study shows a trend in the «intrinsic destructive potential of hurricanes».
He writes: «the data of landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. is less than a tenth of a percent of the data for global hurricanes over their whole lifetimes», and shows that from such a small subset of data and given the amount of natural variability, there is no way you would be able to detect a trend by now.
Bouwer and Botzen (2011) demonstrated that other normalized records of total economic and insured losses for the same series of hurricanes exhibit no significant trends in losses since 1900.»]-RSB-
If one examines our model's control simulations for the 1982 - 2006 period, which show a trend towards increasing hurricane activity over this period, and correlates this activity with SST in the Main Development Region, and then tries to use this correlation to predict the 21st century behavior of the model, it clearly doesn't work.
Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100 - year trend leading to related increases of over 0.78 C in SST and over 100 % in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers.
Roughly a year ago, we summarized the state of play in the ongoing scientific debate over the role of anthropogenic climate change in the observed trends in hurricane activity.
When discussing the influence of anthropogenic global warming on hurricane or tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity (see e.g. here, here, and here), it is important to examine observed past trends.
4:38 p.m. Updated I read Mark Fischetti's piece on global warming and hurricanes in Scientific American just now, which points to a recent PNAS study finding «a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events» from tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
This is an unmistakable upward trend in hurricane activity — the activity of the last 10 seasons is about 150 % that of the historical average.
Some have even gone so far as to state that this study proves that recent trends in hurricane activity are part of a natural cycle.
As we have discussed elsewhere on this site, statistical measures that focus on trends in the strongest category storms, maximum hurricane winds, and changes in minimum central pressures, suggest a systematic increase in the intensities of those storms that form.
From a strictly non-policy oriented point of view, using hurricanes to ID a global warming trend is a bit like using dinosaur fossils to determine the Cretaceous - Triassic geological boundary.
``... we estimate that it would take at least another 50 years to detect any long - term trend in U.S. landfalling hurricane statistics, so powerful is the role of chance in these numbers.»
Does that indicate acceptance of a global - warming related trend in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic?
I guess the question in this case (referring to comment # 33 regarding whether there really has been a trend and the reference to Michaels and hurricane loss) boils down to weighing the normalisation of hurricane loss (used to adjust the trends in total hurricane loss) against the calculations by Emanuel as well as the degree of representativeness in this case.
Moreover, as each hurricane season is relatively short, it is especially susceptible to the caprices of «weather», i.e., a season may be strong or weak due to a particular weather pattern that is just a few weeks long and that does not reflect any long - term trend whatever.
Mooney describes the debate over the role of natural vs. anthropogenic factors in observed tropical warming trends that have been related to increased hurricane activity, and there is a fair amount of discussion of the partisanship that high - level NOAA administrators have apparently taken in this debate.
All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long - term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin.
So while it may provide a dramatic example of the apparent trend in hurricane intensity and / or frequency, it neither defines nor demonstrates that trend.
Tropical North Atlantic SST has exhibited a warming trend of ~ 0.3 °C over the last 100 years; whereas Atlantic hurricane activity has not exhibited trendlike variability, but rather distinct multidecadal cycles as documented here and elsewhere.
There are certainly better indicators of global warming trends — ice sheet volume, sea ice extent and sea surface temperatures all come to mind — but hurricanes get people's attention.
You can make your own list, I am sure — the retreat of the Arctic ice last summer, Greenland melt, trends in Atlantic hurricanes over the past 20 years, etc..
While I agree with Roger Pielke, Jr. that settlement trends are the primary cause of increases in US hurricane damages, I do not agree that resettlement should be pursued «instead of» reduction of GHG emissions.
To conclude — I will add that the investigators of the re-analysis project had the following conclusion for Cycles of hurricane activity: These records reflect the existence of cycles of hurricane activity, rather than trends toward more frequent or stronger hurricanes.
[ANDY REVKIN notes: One reason for the statistical gridlock is the murkiness of the data on the things that matter most (hurricane trends over the past century, for instance).
We've criticized NOAA Hurricane Center folks before on certain issues (e.g. their attribution of recent Tropical Cyclone trends to the «AMO») but on this issue they are quite sound.
Click on the animated sequence of National Hurricane Center forecasts to see the easterly trend.)
Don Keiller — as others have pointed out, that paper doesn't attempt to address the issue of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity, or the ongoing increasing trend of increasing sea surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture content.
- temperature trends are unprecedented in the last 2000 years - temperatures are unprecedented in 10000000 years - hurricane PDI has doubled in the last 30 years - GCMs are the best proof we have of the inevitability of CO2 - caused warming of 3 ± 1 °C
«No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years» 3.
Winter storms and other types of severe storms have greater uncertainties in their recent trends and projections, compared to hurricanes (Key Message 8).
The 2017 hurricane season fits that trend — though there weren't more storms than usual, more of them (10 to be exact) strengthened to become hurricanes, matching a 124 - year - old record.
Generally yes, but there has been a lot of new information learned since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (e.g., on trends in hurricane intensity, the accelerated melting back of Arctic sea ice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientists.
Panelist and Colorado State University professor of atmospheric science William M. Gray, a hurricane authority, announced that he thinks that the biggest contributor to global warming is the fact that «we're coming out of a little ice age,» and that the warming trend will end in six to eight years.
In point of fact, there is no trend in hurricane severity.
The US CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group was formed to improve understanding of interannual variability and trends in the tropical cyclone activity from the beginning of the 20th century to the present and quantify changes in the characteristics of tropical cyclones under a warming climate.