Records collectively suggest a broader range
of hydroclimatic variability than contained in instrumental records, particularly with respect to drought extent, duration, and severity.
Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC projections
of hydroclimatic change in a long - term paleoclimate context
Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis
of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429.1 — 9, 2007.
However, by summarizing the above discussion, we believe that several indications have been already accumulated (see the references cited above) that make the LTP hypothesis very plausible in contrast to the implausibility of common alternative hypotheses such as IID (usually implicit in most statistical analyses
of hydroclimatic processes.
Application of the toy model gives traces that can resemble historical time series
of hydroclimatic variables, such as temperature, rainfall and runoff.
It is demonstrated that a simple deterministic model in discrete time can capture the scaling behaviour
of hydroclimatic processes at time scales coarser than annual.
Tree ring - derived Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) time series have been widely used to estimate the spatial extent, duration, timing, and intensity of droughts from the past millennium across the American Southwest [31 — 37], but the amplitude and variance
of hydroclimatic variability have received significantly less attention (but see [38]-RRB-.
Such potential changes in variability are in agreement with instrumental records and paleoclimate reconstructions, which show that the magnitude and trend
of hydroclimatic variability has not been constant in the Southwest during the Common Era (C.E.).
It can be argued that they often lead to false results: natural features
of hydroclimatic time series are regarded as errors and are adjusted.»
Not exact matches
The team
of researchers examined the
hydroclimatic and societal impacts in Egypt
of a sequence
of tropical and high - latitude volcanic eruptions spanning the past 2,500 years, as known from modern ice - core records.
Furthermore, since the end
of the 19th century, we find an increasing variance in multidecadal
hydroclimatic winter and spring, and this coincides with an increase in the multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability, suggesting a significant influence
of large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns.
Drought variations in the study area significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Pacific Ocean, suggesting a possible connection
of regional
hydroclimatic variations to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
«The discrepancy could arise,
of course, from the opposite problem: that the palaeoclimate proxy data are underestimating
hydroclimatic extremes.
An 850 - Year
Hydroclimatic History
of Northwestern China.
The methods used for drought prediction based on certain drought indicators can be used directly to predict other hazards related to
hydroclimatic variables, such as flood forecasting, although a difference may exist in the properties
of variables
of interest; for example, low quantile is
of interest for drought prediction while high quantile is
of interest for flood prediction.
Our results show that
hydroclimatic variability in the Southwest has not remained constant over the last millennia, with a shift from low to high variance at the MCA - LIA transition that was accompanied by a change in quasi-periodic variance, from a higher concentration
of power in the multi-decadal periodicities during the MCA vs. interannual and decadal periodicities during the LIA.
As further warming is anticipated in this region
of the Pacific and elsewhere, enhanced
hydroclimatic variability might be expected across southwestern North America in the coming century.
Our study stresses the importance
of those internal connections between tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs, the ENSO system, and the American Southwest
hydroclimatic conditions and supports the contention that: (1) internal variability
of the ocean - atmosphere system may not be accurately represented in current global climate models, and (2) enhanced variability as a result
of these stochastic events should be further considered.
The latter would explain the lack
of coherence in terms
of variability between CESM - derived winter precipitation ensemble members and NADA - derived
hydroclimatic conditions across the American Southwest.
Instrumental records have shown that
hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest is mostly structured around cool - season precipitation regimes, with a few winter storms typically contributing a disproportionately large amount
of the annual precipitation across this region [15].
This study analyzed potential
hydroclimatic change in the Peace River basin in the province
of British Columbia, Canada, based on two structurally different approaches: (i) statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) using the bias - corrected spatial disaggregation (BCSD) and (ii) dynamically downscaled GCM with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM).
Such differences reemphasize the uncertain nature
of future
hydroclimatic projections.
A new Indonesian coral - based record
of surface ocean salinity shows that the location
of the most significant
hydroclimatic feature in the Southern Hemisphere, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), a band
of high clouds and precipitation, influences a major current in the far western Pacific Ocean.
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, Uncertainty assessment
of future
hydroclimatic predictions: A comparison
of probabilistic and scenario - based approaches, Journal
of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261 — 281, 2007.
Although important differences must be acknowledged — for example, the causes and the amplitudes
of the warming, and the probable impacts
of land cover change on temperatures — the medieval droughts can provide some direct evidence
of the Southwest
hydroclimatic response to warming and a plausible, but conservative, worst - case scenario to be considered in sustainable water - resource planning.