Also odd is that the IPCC would reject such direct measures in favor
of ice core proxies.
To answer these questions we will conduct an inter-disciplinary analysis
of ice core proxies, atmospheric dynamics, modern processes, and numerical ice flow modeling.
Not exact matches
«We find many examples
of these variations in pre-industrial temperature reconstructions» based on
proxies such as tree rings,
ice cores, and lake sediment, Lovejoy says.
Unlike the tree - ring case, which included additions and divergences (see previous PDF), Wegman's sections on
ice core and coral
proxies appear to be based on a close following
of Bradley's text (except as noted below).
Further information comes from
proxies (
ice cores, tree rings,...), which give (less exact) information about temperature and some
of the primary actors
of the past.
Such fellowships have enabled Antarctic scientists to participate in a range
of significant research including using
ice cores to determine
proxies for the Southern Annular Mode, a molecular study
of Antarctic ostracods, and investigating particulate carbon and biogenic silica in sea
ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
Variations
of deuterium (δD; black), a
proxy for local temperature, and the atmospheric concentrations
of the greenhouse gases CO2 (red), CH4 (blue), and nitrous oxide (N2O; green) derived from air trapped within
ice cores from Antarctica and from recent atmospheric measurements (Petit et al., 1999; Indermühle et al., 2000; EPICA community members, 2004; Spahni et al., 2005; Siegenthaler et al., 2005a, b).
The stack
of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O marine records (dark grey), a
proxy for global
ice volume fluctuations (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005), is displayed for comparison with the
ice core data.
Regional averages are defined as: Antarctica, annual for inland
ice cores; tropical Indian Ocean, annual for 15 ° S to 15 ° N, 50 ° E to 100 ° E; and North Atlantic Ocean, July to September for 42 ° N to 57 ° N, 35 ° W to 20 ° E. Grey shading indicates the range
of observed
proxy estimates
of regional cooling: Antarctica (Stenni et al., 2001; Masson - Delmotte et al., 2006), tropical Indian Ocean (Rosell - Mele et al., 2004; Barrows and Juggins, 2005), and North Atlantic Ocean (Rosell - Mele et al., 2004; Kucera et al., 2005; de Vernal et al., 2006; Kageyama et al., 2006).
For the most recent glacial periods
ice cores provide climate
proxies from their
ice, and atmospheric samples from included bubbles
of air.
As you can see in Figure 1, natural land and ocean carbon remains roughly in balance and have done so for a long time — and we know this because we can measure historic levels
of CO2 in the atmosphere both directly (in
ice cores) and indirectly (through
proxies).
The analyses
of two
ice cores from a southern tropical
ice cap provide a record
of climatic conditions over 1000 years for a region where other
proxy records are nearly absent.
Along with tree rings and
ice cores, which offer a window into land temperatures throughout Earth's history, these are all examples
of «climate
proxies».
Ice core paleoclimate isotope data are indirect indications
of temperature (
proxies) over millions
of years compared to instrumental temperature measurements with high resolution
of hours, days and decades.
Amidst the continuous chatter in the blogosphere about the strengths and limitations about «multiproxy» studies, these studies may be a refreshing return to simpler methods relying on just one type
of «
proxy»: data from
ice cores.
CO2 in
ice core records has followed not proceeded temperature changes, indication that it is a
proxy of temperature not a cause
of the change.
Now the locations
of avaialble
proxy data (tree rings,
ice cores, ocean sediment records, corals etc.) are not necessarily optimally spread out, but the spatial sampling error is actually quite easy to calculate, and goes into the error bars shown on most reconstructions.
We've all seen how well temperature
proxies and CO2 concentrations are correlated in the Antarctic
ice cores — this has been known since the early 1990's and has featured in many high - profile discussions
of climate change.
Further information comes from
proxies (
ice cores, tree rings,...), which give (less exact) information about temperature and some
of the primary actors
of the past.
The curve from Rahmstorf et al. 2015 was based on a network
of land - based
proxy data such as tree rings and
ice cores, while the new red curve from Thornalley et al. was based on sediment data.
If the 20 ppmv / K holds, then the subsequent decrease
of CO2 levels with ~ 40 ppmv would have induced a ~ 2 K temperature drop, which is not visible in the temperature
proxy of the
ice core.
Alan D. Roth @ 30 — The Greenland
ice core proxies reflect the temperature in the vicinity
of Greenland.
That difference means that Greenland
ice core data are not even
proxies of the same region at different points
of time.
Your chart shows the difference between the absolute temperature in 1895 as measured using the GISP2
ice core proxy, and the absolute temperature as measured at a nearby location using the thermometers in the 2000s, ie, the difference between the end
of the GISP2 icecore and the higher
of the two blue crosses in last graph in the original post.
So, while my over interpretation has lead to a clear error in relationshipt to the dominant source
of Greenland precipitation by placing it to far north, it does not effect the conclusion that Greenland
ice cores are a regional, not a hemispheric or global
proxy.
I think the
ice core is considered the most reliable, especially in terms
of better temporal resolution, than the other
proxies from ocean sediment.
Based on the GISP2
ice core proxy record from Greenland it has previously been pointed out that the present period
of warming since 1850 to a high degree may be explained by a natural c. 1100 yr periodic temperature variation (Humlum et al., 2011).
To answer the question
of the Medieval Warm Period, more than 1,000 tree - ring,
ice core, coral, sediment and other assorted
proxy records spanning both hemispheres were used to construct a global map
of temperature change over the past 1,500 years (Mann 2009).
The «hockey stick» describes a reconstruction
of past temperature over the past 1000 to 2000 years using tree - rings,
ice cores, coral and other records that act as
proxies for temperature (Mann 1999).
The amplitudes
of the pre-industrial, decadal - scale NH temperature changes from the
proxy - based reconstructions (< 1 °C) are broadly consistent with the
ice core CO2 record and understanding
of the strength
of the carbon cycle - climate feedback.
Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number
of proxy studies analysing a variety
of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and
ice cores.
Ice -
core samples are the
proxy of choice now.
«We looked at
ice cores and tropical sponge records, which give us reliable
proxies for the carbon isotope composition
of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
For instance, here's the data for delta - oxygen - 18 from a stack
of 57 ocean sediment
cores, which is considered an excellent
proxy for global
ice volume, known as the «LR04 stack» (from Lisiecki, L.E., & Raymo, M.E. 2005.
To reach further back, the team relied on natural stand - ins, or
proxies, that include
ice cores, ocean and lake sediments, mineralized «rings» from slices
of stalactites or stalagmites in caves, coral growth rings, and tree rings.
With the large and growing discrepancy between the instrumental record that hides the decline and the
proxy evidence from tree - rings and
ice cores that doesn't, one wonders how much longer the illusion
of a linearly warming Earth may continue to be promulgated.
Mann's graphic represented a reconstruction
of past temperatures, not from thermometers or satellites, but by analysing data from
proxies, such as tree - ring width, corals, and
ice cores.
I wish that with all posts like this either a good
ice core temperature
proxy graph be linked to or included in the article as a constant reminder to the casual readers that are not up on the science as well as the well informed to never lose sight
of the actual context that all these discussions should be held in.
Of these proxies, some of the most useful for long - term climate analyses are ice cores, sediment cores, tree rings and, of course, the fossil recor
Of these
proxies, some
of the most useful for long - term climate analyses are ice cores, sediment cores, tree rings and, of course, the fossil recor
of the most useful for long - term climate analyses are
ice cores, sediment
cores, tree rings and,
of course, the fossil recor
of course, the fossil record.
Sealing time
of air bubbles at best about 70 years and mixing with ambient air through diffusion all that time, chemical changes thereafter, different diffusion rates for different gases thereafter...
ice cores are a target - rich environment for casting
of doubt about how well they perform as global temperature
proxies.
All that is required is to take, as a working hypothesis the fairly small and reasonable step
of accepting that the recent peak was also a peak in the 1000 year cycle This periodicity seen in seen in the temperature
proxy and
ice core data data in Figs 3 and 4 in the last post at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com This post also contains a forecast
of the timing and extent
of the coming cooling.
and «How well can we overcome the challenges
of core proxy interpretations from
ice cores taken from small polythermal valley glaciers through modern - process studies?»
We will interpret recently completed measurements
of 35 chemical -
proxies in the
ice -
core and relate these to similar studies in other Arctic
ice cores, such as by using real - world contaminant transport to validate atmospheric circulation models and chemical - signature sourcing.
This «new evidence» is based on a single analysis
of «
proxy» data (that is, data that do not come from thermometers but rather from sources like tree rings,
ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments) showing the twentieth century to be the warmest in the past thousand years.
[That finding holds that there was no plagiarism in Wegman Report background material derived from Raymond Bradley's Paleoclimatolgy; readers may judge side - by - side comparisons
of the passages on tree - rings and
ice core and coral
proxies for themselves].
But it is a
proxy, because the idea that that it is not a
proxy rests on the tenuous and unproven assumption that the chemical composition
of the
ice -
core data does not undergo any fractionation processes before closing and after closing that affect the chemical composition
of the bubbles thereby perfectly preserving the atmospheric concentration
of CO2.
And this is a crucial point; Salby's conclusions are based on the best measurements; his critics are rabbiting on about
ice core data and other
proxies which are up there with how's your mother in terms
of evidence.
Given the poor time resolution
of recent (< 2K years)
ice core CO2
proxy, how is it that the abstract says with confidence that GHG forcings for this period are «easily defined»?
As I understand isotope
proxies of cosmic ray penetration are used for pretty good solar activity estimation, and
ice core ash is a pretty reliable
proxy of volcanic activity.
In fact, Jaworowski must have read the literature after 1992 because he recently published a paper in 2007 called «CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal
of Our Time» where he cites 24 papers that have been published after 1992 (23
of those published after 1996) and many
of the papers he cites pertain to
proxy - data, predominately
ice -
core.