The decline has been greatest during summer, for which the rate of decrease
of ice extent since 1979 has been approximately 12 percent per decade.
Moreover, other measurements,
e.g. of ice extent and of ocean heat content, confirm that global warming is continuing.
These graphs show a best
estimate of ice extent and sea ice departure from average for the period 1850 to 2013.
[Response: I think the phrase «a few
locations of ice extent extrapolating to an entire content of 17,000 kms coastline» tells us more about your perspective than about the data.
Carrington's claim is true, if we look at the
record of ice extent produced by scientists at the University of Bremen:
When considering the success and accuracy of a given method, it is important to take into account whether and how the area
of ice extent value is obtained and if this value is significantly different than the NSIDC value.
R. Gates: yep, no doubt the MacKenzie is delivering enough heat into the Beaufort; and the lower latitude Beaufort itself likely contains enough heat to melt the entire 2.2 M sq
km of ice extent floes off.
This year «will without a doubt» rank in the top five lowest levels
of ice extent ever recorded in the satellite era, and there is a good possibility that 2013 could rank second in terms of recorded ice lows, said Walt Meier, a scientist at the National Snow & Ice Data Center.
Because of ice dynamics, volume and area of a glacier or an ice sheet are intimately related — if you notice a 15 % reduction
of ice extent at the margin, then a lot of ice will have disappeared far upstream, too.
Some other sea ice scientists (Jennifer Francis at Rutgers and Ignatius Rigor at the University of Washington) told me they are not ready to call it a season, noting that atmospheric pressure and some other conditions over the basin could lead to further
shrinkage of ice extent in the next week or so.
In outline, the model supposes that the rate of
change of ice extent has two terms - accumulation proportional to its length, and loss at the grounding line which is proportional to the cross-section area there, which because a constant width is assumed is proportional to the depth of the ice.
Estimate of heat released by additional 5 cm of precipitation over six million sq km
of ice extent = 9 Estimate for additional 10 cm = 18
As highlighted by Arbetter et al. in their contribution, in particular from the perspective of navigation in ice - covered waters, it is important to recognize differences between different forecasting and remote - sensing approaches as to the
definition of ice extent, location of the ice edge and related variables describing ice conditions.
Thus, the potential
range of the ice extent evolution begins to become constrained and range of extents will encompass the likely actual trajectory this year.
Stroeve said that sea ice volume, which incorporates
measurements of ice extent as well as thickness, is a more important metric than sea ice extent alone.
While we are asking for expected values
of the ice extent for September, most researchers recognize that any quantitative outlook should ideally include a probabilistic approach.
Lindsay, R.W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger and M.A. Steele, «Seasonal predictions
of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean», J. Geophys.