At least this one driver
of ice sheet instability isn't operative.
Dr Konrad added: «These differences emphasise the complex nature
of ice sheet instability across the continent, and being able to detect them helps us to pinpoint areas that deserve further investigation.»
Not exact matches
The first
of these pathways, marine
ice sheet instability, has been studied for decades, but the second, marine
ice cliff
instability, has only recently been considered as an important contributor to future sea level change.
«East Antarctic
Ice Sheet has history
of instability.»
Retreat
of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine
ice -
sheet instability.
A recent high - profile article stirred debate about the threat
of a process known as marine
ice -
sheet instability in the Antarctic.
It's a positive feedback cycle, a viscious loop that means that future recession
of the
ice stream is inevitable (see Marine Ice Sheet Instability and previous pos
ice stream is inevitable (see Marine
Ice Sheet Instability and previous pos
Ice Sheet Instability and previous post).
While all discussion
of marine
ice -
sheet instability is shrouded in tremendous uncertainty, one thing is clear: whatever happens in far - off West Antarctica will have more profound impacts in Scandinavia than in nearby Australia.
The West Antarctic
Ice Sheet:
Instability, Disintegration, and Initiation
of Ice Ages, Reviews
of Geophysics and Space Physics, Vol.
But this is not the only potential mode
of ice -
sheet instability, and physical
ice -
sheet models incorporating only this mode
of instability have difficulty reproducing the shrunken Antarctic
ice sheet that appears to have characterized past geological warm periods.
Marine - based
ice sheets are vulnerable to several types
of instability.
Initiation and long - term
instability of the East Antarctic
Ice Sheet.
The new projections reflect the growing body
of research about the different modes
of ice -
sheet instability.
Marine
ice sheet instability is a classic example
of hysteresis.
Thus two completely independent studies, using completely different methods, both find that the early stages
of marine
ice sheet instability may be underway in West Antarctica.
One recent modeling study focused on this mode
of instability estimated that the Antarctic
ice sheet has a 1 - in - 20 chance
of contributing about 30 centimeters (1.0 feet) to global average sea - level rise over the course
of this century and 72 centimeters (2.4 feet) by the end
of the next century.
These simulations provide strong evidence that the process
of marine -
ice sheet instability is already underway on Thwaites Glacier, largely due to the observed high sub-
ice shelf melt rates.
Calov, R., et al., 2002: Large - scale
instabilities of the Laurentide
ice sheet simulated in a fully coupled climate - system model.
The authors herald this as the start
of marine
ice sheet instability.
Bassis, the
ice sheet scientist at the University
of Michigan, first described the theoretical process
of marine
ice - cliff
instability in research published only a few years ago.
The
ice sheet in this area is grounded up to 2000 m below sea level, making it intrinsically unstable6 and susceptible to rapid melting at its base, and to rapid migration of the grounding line up the ice stream7 (see Marine Ice Sheet Instabilit
ice sheet in this area is grounded up to 2000 m below sea level, making it intrinsically unstable6 and susceptible to rapid melting at its base, and to rapid migration of the grounding line up the ice stream7 (see Marine Ice Sheet Instabil
sheet in this area is grounded up to 2000 m below sea level, making it intrinsically unstable6 and susceptible to rapid melting at its base, and to rapid migration
of the grounding line up the
ice stream7 (see Marine Ice Sheet Instabilit
ice stream7 (see Marine
Ice Sheet Instabilit
Ice Sheet Instabil
Sheet Instability).
The MISI is based on a number
of studies that indicated the theoretical existence
of the
instability... The most fundamental derivation, that is, starting from a first - principle
ice equation, states that in one - dimensional
ice flow the grounding line between grounded
ice sheet and floating
ice shelf can not be stable on a landward sloping bed.
In Andrew Revkin's article today entitled «In Greenland,
Ice and Instability», there is the quote: Eric Rignot, a longtime student of ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissio
Ice and
Instability», there is the quote: Eric Rignot, a longtime student
of ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissio
ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissions.
This implies major
instability in components
of both the Greenland and Antarctic
Ice Sheets at temperatures likely to prevail by 2100, except perhaps at the lowest - emission scenario that we're rapidly pulling away from.
The question
of when does this start is not really addressed in this paper that I can find, and has been addressed only peripherally in most
of the papers about
ice sheet instability that I have seen.
I first dug in on behavioral and social science research related to global warming views and responses in 2006, and it quickly became clear that this was the scariest body
of science
of all — topping
ice -
sheet instability and even calling into question the utility
of my profession.
Note that such an
ice dynamic uncertainty was only included for Greenland but not for Antarctica; instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, a scenario considered «very unlikely» in the TAR, was explicitly not included in the upper limit of 88
ice dynamic uncertainty was only included for Greenland but not for Antarctica;
instability of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet, a scenario considered «very unlikely» in the TAR, was explicitly not included in the upper limit of 88
Ice Sheet, a scenario considered «very unlikely» in the TAR, was explicitly not included in the upper limit
of 88 cm.
The latter set
of feedbacks, which include those due to
ice sheet instability and the carbon cycle, are normally refered to as «slow feedbacks.»
Wilson (1964); Wilson (1966); Wilson (1969); Wilson's starting - point was the suggestion that the center
of Antarctica was at the pressure melting point, see Robin (1962), p. 141, who adds that «one would not expect the
ice to surge over a large part
of Antarctica at one time»; the role
of frictional heat in
ice -
sheet instability was pointed out back in 1961 (in partial support
of Ewing - Donn theory), drawing on earlier work by G. Bodvarsson, by Weertman (1961).
At this stage, corresponding to a peak warming
of 2 ° to 3 °C, both the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet and the Wilkes Basin are experiencing rapid ice loss due to their instability, which manifests itself in a visible threshold in sea - level rise (see Imag
Ice Sheet and the Wilkes Basin are experiencing rapid
ice loss due to their instability, which manifests itself in a visible threshold in sea - level rise (see Imag
ice loss due to their
instability, which manifests itself in a visible threshold in sea - level rise (see Image).
«It merely suggests the presence
of a natural contributor to West Antarctic
ice sheet melt and
instability,» he says.
A study using Earth Remote Sensing satellite radar interferometry (EERS - 1 and -2) observations from 1992 through 2011 finds «a continuous and rapid retreat
of the grounding lines
of Pine Island, Thwaites, Haynes, Smith, and Kohler» Glaciers, and the authors conclude that «this sector
of West Antarctica is undergoing a marine
ice sheet instability that will significantly contribute to sea level rise in decades to centuries to come» (Rignot et al. 2014).
Multiple studies
of Antarctica indicate growing
ice sheet instability, especially in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where the Thwaites, Pine Island, Smith, Kohler, Pope, and Haynes Glaciers drain the central West Antarctic Ice She
ice sheet instability, especially in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where the Thwaites, Pine Island, Smith, Kohler, Pope, and Haynes Glaciers drain the central West Antarctic Ice S
sheet instability, especially in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where the Thwaites, Pine Island, Smith, Kohler, Pope, and Haynes Glaciers drain the central West Antarctic
Ice She
Ice SheetSheet.
When one couples the plausibility
of underground heat causing
instability in one region with the old newspaper articles about fears
of ice sheet collapse from 100 years ago, at a minimum a reasonable person should wonder what has really been going on for many centuries.
On May 12, two studies were released that sounded the alarm about the
instability of parts
of the Antarctic
ice sheet.
Favier, L., G. Durand, S. L. Cornford, G. H. Gudmundsson, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet - Chaulet, T. Zwinger, A. J. Payne, and A. M. Le Brocq (2014), Retreat
of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine
ice -
sheet instability, Nat.
... Most projections for the Antarctic
Ice Sheet since IPCC AR5 limit the sea - level contribution as a result of dynamic discharge and the potential onset of the marine ice sheet instability to 0.3 m by the end of this centu
Ice Sheet since IPCC AR5 limit the sea - level contribution as a result of dynamic discharge and the potential onset of the marine ice sheet instability to 0.3 m by the end of this cen
Sheet since IPCC AR5 limit the sea - level contribution as a result
of dynamic discharge and the potential onset
of the marine
ice sheet instability to 0.3 m by the end of this centu
ice sheet instability to 0.3 m by the end of this cen
sheet instability to 0.3 m by the end
of this century.
Most climatologists believe that if temperatures rise more than another 1 degree C by 2100, conditions on the planet could become radically different and disruptive, including sharp shifts in precipitation patterns, more severe storms and droughts, the disappearance
of the Arctic
ice cap in summer, Greenland
ice sheet instability, and much higher sea levels.
Retreat
of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine
ice -
sheet instability.
Until recently, the contribution
of ice sheets to sea - level rise remained unknown and is still debated, but the current acceleration
of sea - level rise is attributed to heating
of the oceans and melting
of land glaciers which is supported by measurements
of ocean temperatures and the behavior
of mountain glaciers, the vast majority
of which are retreating or exhibit signs
of instability.
If the
ice -
sheet bed deepens toward the center
of the
ice sheet, an
instability exists, such that in the absence
of additional stabilizers, the grounding line will advance with
ice -
sheet growth, or retreat with
ice -
sheet shrinkage, to a position where the bed rises towards the
ice -
sheet center.
The main uncertainty in predicting the actual magnitude
of sea - level rise is the contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets, but again, both
ice sheets are exhibiting signs
of instability.
· Freshwater influx from movements and melting
of sea
ice or
ice sheets may lead to a weakening
of the global thermohaline circulation, causing unpredictable
instabilities in the climate system.
• Freshwater influx from the movements and melting
of sea
ice or
ice sheets may lead to a weakening
of the global thermohaline circulation, causing unpredictable
instabilities in the climate system.
The journal Geophysical Research Letters details the major lines
of evidence causing such
instability in the
ice sheet - something scientists have been fearing for some time.
But this is not the only potential mode
of ice -
sheet instability, and physical
ice -
sheet models incorporating only this mode
of instability have difficulty reproducing the shrunken Antarctic
ice sheet that appears to have characterized past geological warm periods.
They did not account for modern observations in calibrating marine
ice -
sheet instability, or probe rates
of ice - cliff collapse as fast as the fastest currently seen in Greenland.
One recent modeling study focused on this mode
of instability estimated that the Antarctic
ice sheet has a 1 - in - 20 chance
of contributing about 30 centimeters (1.0 feet) to global average sea - level rise over the course
of this century and 72 centimeters (2.4 feet) by the end
of the next century.
Significant short - term (decades to century - scale) temperature and sea levels fluctuations (several degrees and many meters) during the last
ice age (about 110 — 15 thousand years ago) imply great
instability of the Greenland and west Antarctic
ice sheets.
In May
of last year, two studies were released that sounded the alarm about the
instability of parts
of the Antarctic
ice sheet.