In draft versions at least, the new IPCC report does tackle the question
of ice sheet loss, finding it «very likely» that melting ice and the expansion of the ocean due to its heating will lead to sea - level rise exceeding that of the last century.
The report notes that there are now many new sources confirming climate impacts, including the acceleration
of ice sheet loss, and takes stock of new research and understanding on ocean acidification and warming, among other recent changes.
Mercer further commented that the loss of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula, as has since been observed, would be an indicator that this process
of ice sheet loss due to global warming was underway.
An international team of experts supported by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) has combined data from multiple satellites and aircraft to produce the most comprehensive and accurate assessment to date
of ice sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica and their contributions to sea level rise.
Not exact matches
There's no getting around the fact that the
loss of the Greenland
Ice Sheet and the resulting sea level rise would be pretty devastating for humanity.
«The widespread
loss of Antarctic
ice shelves, driven by a warming ocean or warming atmosphere, could spell disaster for our coastlines — and there is sound geological evidence that supports what the models are telling us,» said Robert M. DeConto
of the University
of Massachusetts Amherst, a co-author
of the study and one
of the developers
of the
ice -
sheet model used.
This gives confidence in the predictions
of the current generation
of ice -
sheet models which are used to forecast future
ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»
While satellite measurements and climate models have detailed this recent
ice loss, there are far fewer direct measurements
of melt collected from the
ice sheet itself.
As glaciologist Richard Alley
of Pennsylvania State University notes: «The
ice sheet is losing mass, this
loss has increased over time, [and] it is not the dominant term in sea - level rise — but it matters.»
Yet these model - based estimates do not include the possible acceleration
of recently observed increases in
ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets.
Pine Island Glacier and the neighbouring Thwaites Glacier are responsible for nearly a third
of total
ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and this contribution has increased greatly over the past 25 yea
ice loss from the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet, and this contribution has increased greatly over the past 25 yea
Ice Sheet, and this contribution has increased greatly over the past 25 years.
The drought that is devastating California and much
of the West has dried the region so much that 240 gigatons worth
of surface and groundwater have been lost, roughly the equivalent to a 3.9 - inch layer
of water over the entire West, or the annual
loss of mass from the Greenland
Ice Sheet, according to the study.
The study fuels a growing concern among scientists about the factors affecting the Antarctic
ice sheet — namely, that warm ocean waters are helping to melt glaciers and drive greater levels
of ice loss, particularly in West Antarctica.
«New details
of Greenland
ice loss revealed: Data are dramatically increasing knowledge
of how the ocean is melting the
ice sheet.»
«Warming greater than 2 degrees Celsius above 19th - century levels is projected to be disruptive, reducing global agricultural productivity, causing widespread
loss of biodiversity and — if sustained over centuries — melting much
of the Greenland
ice sheet with ensuing rise in sea levels
of several meters,» the AGU declares in its first statement in four years on «Human Impacts on Climate.»
«By refining the spatial pattern
of mass
loss in the world's second largest — and most unstable —
ice sheet, and learning how that pattern has evolved, we are steadily increasing our understanding
of ice loss processes, which will lead to better - informed projections
of sea level rise.»
«It doesn't change our estimates
of the total mass
loss all over Greenland by that much, but it brings a more significant change to our understanding
of where within the
ice sheet that
loss has happened, and where it is happening now.»
Melting near the edges
of the Greenland
ice sheet, where the surface is below 4,000 feet, causes about half
of its annual
ice loss.
«Once you have that combination
of ocean heat and atmospheric heat — which are related — that's when the
ice sheet could really experience dramatic
ice mass
loss.»
In other words, the
losses of mass
of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet will intensify — just like the models predict.»
The melting
of Greenland contributes to the global sea level, but the
loss of mass also means that the
ice sheet's own gravitational field weakens and thus does not attract the surrounding sea as strongly.
Those changes may include the
loss of Arctic summer sea
ice, the collapse
of ice sheets in Greenland and western Antarctica, dieback
of the Amazon rainforest and changes in the jet stream and the pattern
of El Niño and La Niña weather cycles.
Dr Ian Joughin at the University
of Washington, author
of a recent study simulating future Antarctic
ice sheet losses added: «This study does a nice job
of revealing the strong thinning along the Amundsen Coast, which is consistent with theory and models indicating this region is in the early stages
of collapse.»
These findings suggest that Greenland's glaciers have been experiencing increasing
ice loss for at least three decades — a result that may reinforce scientists» concerns over the stability
of the melting
ice sheet.
«The fact that the mass
loss of the Greenland
Ice Sheet has generally increased over the last decades is well known,» Khan said, «but the increasing contribution from the northeastern part of the ice sheet is new and very surprising.&raq
Ice Sheet has generally increased over the last decades is well known,» Khan said, «but the increasing contribution from the northeastern part of the ice sheet is new and very surprising.&r
Sheet has generally increased over the last decades is well known,» Khan said, «but the increasing contribution from the northeastern part
of the
ice sheet is new and very surprising.&raq
ice sheet is new and very surprising.&r
sheet is new and very surprising.»
The new result focuses on
ice loss due to a major retreat
of an outlet glacier connected to a long «river»
of ice — known as an
ice stream — that drains
ice from the interior
of the
ice sheet.
«The traditional view
of the
loss of land
ice on Earth has been that mountain glaciers and
ice caps are the dominant contributors, and
ice sheets are following behind,» said study co-author Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University
of California, Irvine.
But that could soon change, Rignot said, because the rate at which
ice sheets are losing mass is increasing three times faster than the rate
of ice loss from mountain glaciers and
ice caps.
Subtracting one from the other produced a «mass - balance» picture
of net
ice loss or growth for each
ice sheet.
«Thus the increased snowfall we report here has not led to thickening
of the
ice sheet, but is in fact another symptom
of the changes that are driving contemporary
ice sheet loss.»
Kuhn, from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute, added, «This gives confidence in the predictions
of the current generation
of ice sheet models which are used to forecast future
ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»
Increased melting
of the Greenland
Ice Sheet and other ice losses worldwide have helped to move the North Pole several centimeters east each year since 2
Ice Sheet and other
ice losses worldwide have helped to move the North Pole several centimeters east each year since 2
ice losses worldwide have helped to move the North Pole several centimeters east each year since 2005
Faced by the
loss of so much precious coastal land, it seems quite plausible that our descendants will resort to some kind
of mega-project to cool the planet and stop the
ice sheets melting.
We know, however, that rapid warming
of the planet increases the risk
of crossing climatic points
of no return, possibly setting in motion large - scale ocean circulation changes, the
loss of major
ice sheets, and species extinctions.
Despite being trumpeted in certain circles as meaning that there's really nothing to worry about regarding the Greenland
ice sheet, the authors made a point
of noting (although not in this press release) that an additional source
of mass
loss needs to be identified in order to reconcile their results with the GRACE data (which do not show a reduction in mass
loss for the same period).
First, the
loss of mass in the Antarctic
ice sheet is actually somewhat unexpected.
The relevant papers are [Velicogna and Wahr 2006 Measurements
of time - variable gravity show mass
loss in Antarctica Science 311, 1754 - 1756 and Rignot and Thomas «Mass balance
of polar
ice sheets» Science 297, 1502 - 1506]
[7] The IceCon project aims to gain a better understanding
of the rate
of the
loss of ice — now and in the past - from the Antarctic
ice sheet in the Dronning Maud Land area, and includes six partners: Université Libre de Bruxelles, Royal Observatory
of Belgium, University
of Luxembourg, Norwegian Polar Institute, and Aberystwyth University.
The team also compared the
ice loss up until the mid-1980s to that observed by satellites over roughly the last decade and found that today the rate
of ice loss is twice the 20th century average, mostly because
of increased water runoff from the
ice sheet's surface.
The reconstructed curve includes isolated rapid events
of several decimetres within a few centuries, one
of which is most likely related to
loss from the Antarctic
ice sheet mass around 5000 years before present.
The estimates
of ice loss also helped them calculate the amount
of sea level rise contributed by the
ice sheet prior to 1990 — a number missing from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report because
of the lack
of direct observations.
The information from the study helps improve scientists» understanding
of the behavior
of the
ice sheet and what processes control the
loss of ice, Beata Csatho, a geophysicist at the University
of Buffalo in New York who was not involved with the work, said in a commentary published in the same issue
of Nature.
His comments are based on the paper «Limits in detecting acceleration
of ice sheet mass
loss due to climate variability», B. Wouters, J. L. Bamber, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts and I. Sasgen, Nature Geoscience 6, 613 — 616 (2013) doi: 10.1038 / ngeo1874 Find the abstract and illustrations for that paper here.
The majority
of this
ice loss — between 52 % and 83 % — originates from southeastern and northwestern regions
of the
ice sheet, says lead author
[SLIDE 17] And so not surprisingly sea level is rising as a result not only
of the
loss of mountain glaciers and the great land
ice sheets —
losses from the great land
ice sheets; but also thermal expansion
of sea water because the ocean is getting warmer.
The rate
of release from the tundra alone is predicted to reach 1.5 billion tons
of carbon per annum before 2030, contributing to accelerated climate change, perhaps resulting in sustained decadal doubling
of ice loss causing collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 201
ice loss causing collapse
of the Greenland
Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 201
Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 2011).
Many scientists concede that without drastic emissions reductions by 2020, we are on the path toward a 4C rise as early as mid-century, with catastrophic consequences, including the
loss of the world's coral reefs; the disappearance
of major mountain glaciers; the total
loss of the Arctic summer sea -
ice, most
of the Greenland
ice -
sheet and the break - up
of West Antarctica; acidification and overheating
of the oceans; the collapse
of the Amazon rainforest; and the
loss of Arctic permafrost; to name just a few.
Joughin et al. (2010) applied a numerical
ice sheet model to predicting the future
of PIG, their model suggested ongoing
loss of ice mass from PIG, with a maximum rate
of global sea level rise
of 2.7 cm per century.
This feedback could potentially result in the rapid
loss of parts
of the
ice sheet, as grounding lines retreat along troughs and basins that deepen towards the
ice sheet's interior.
Pritchard HD, Ligtenberg SRM, Fricker HA, Vaughan DG, van den Broeke MR, Padman L. Antarctic
ice -
sheet loss driven by basal melting
of ice shelves.