This is not surprising, given the primitive state
of ice sheet modeling.
Kuhn, from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute, added, «This gives confidence in the predictions of the current generation
of ice sheet models which are used to forecast future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»
170 (Symposium on Physical Basis
of Ice Sheet Modelling, Vancouver), p. 313 - 322, 1987.
In The Physical Basis
of Ice Sheet Modelling, pp. 81 - 91.
These simulations were subsequently used as forcing
of an ice sheet model.
We used an ensemble
of ice sheet model runs and plausible Earth models to place bounded constraints on our mass change estimate.
Thus, our simple transparent calculation may provide a useful comparison with geological data for sea - level change and with results
of ice sheet models.
Hansen & Sato [60] point out the sudden change in the responsiveness
of the ice sheet model of Bintanja et al. [59] when the sea level reaches today's level (figs 3 and 4 of Hansen & Sato [60]-RRB- and they note that the empirical sea - level data provide no evidence of such a sudden change.
Little, C.M., M. Oppenheimer, R.B. Alley, V. Balaji, G.K.C. Clarke, T.L. Delworth, R. Hallberg, D.M. Holland, C.L. Hulbe, S. Jacobs, J.V. Johnson, H. Levy, W.H. Lipscomb, S.J. Marshall, B.R. Parizek, A.J. Payne, G.A. Schmidt, R.J. Stouffer, D.G. Vaughan, and M. Winton, 2007: Toward a new generation
of ice sheet models.
Not exact matches
«The widespread loss
of Antarctic
ice shelves, driven by a warming ocean or warming atmosphere, could spell disaster for our coastlines — and there is sound geological evidence that supports what the
models are telling us,» said Robert M. DeConto
of the University
of Massachusetts Amherst, a co-author
of the study and one
of the developers
of the
ice -
sheet model used.
Another promising approach involves combining physics, statistical
modeling and computing to derive sound projections for the future
of ice sheets.
Murali Haran, a professor in the department
of statistics at Penn State University; Won Chang, an assistant professor in the department
of mathematical sciences at the University
of Cincinnati; Klaus Keller, a professor in the department
of geosciences and director
of sustainable climate risk management at Penn State University; Rob Nicholas, a research associate at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State University; and David Pollard, a senior scientist at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State University detail how parameters and initial values drive an
ice sheet model, whose output describes the behavior
of the
ice sheet through time.
This gives confidence in the predictions
of the current generation
of ice -
sheet models which are used to forecast future
ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»
While satellite measurements and climate
models have detailed this recent
ice loss, there are far fewer direct measurements
of melt collected from the
ice sheet itself.
Computer
model simulations have suggested that
ice -
sheet melting through warm water incursions could initiate a collapse
of the WAIS within the next few centuries, raising global sea - level by up to 3.5 metres.»
Yet these
model - based estimates do not include the possible acceleration
of recently observed increases in
ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets.
Recent
modelling by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, as well as studies
of past climate, suggest that the planet will soon have warmed enough to melt Greenland's
ice sheet entirely — if it hasn't already become warm enough.
«Time and again, the
models are conservative, and they're underestimating the magnitude
of change,» says Robert DeConto, an
ice sheet modeler at the University
of Massachusetts Amherst.
Materials scientists hope their computer
model results will spark further research into the effects
of carbon dioxide on fracturing in glaciers and
ice sheets
This allowed them to calculate the redistribution
of mass on Earth's surface due to the melting
of the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets and mountain glaciers, and
model the shift in Earth's axis.
Modeling studies on geoengineering to reflect sunlight away from the Earth suggest that modifying the planet's reflectivity could slow the meltdown
of the Greenland
ice sheet in the short term, but not stop it entirely, and could still allow an eventual total meltdown in the next millennia or so.
The paper also describes an atmosphere - ocean
modeling study
of feedback loops caused by
ice sheet melting under 2 °C conditions.
Research by the UK Centre for Polar Observation and
Modelling (CPOM) at the University
of Leeds has produced the first complete map
of how the
ice sheet's submarine edge, or «grounding line,» is shifting.
Our global climate
models zoom down to finer and finer resolutions; our satellites reveal remote corners
of the globe; we increase our understanding
of the response
of giant
ice sheets and deep ocean currents to a warming planet.
Several
of the PlioMIP2 research groups are
modeling how the polar
ice sheets responded in the heat
of the Pliocene.
The international team
of co-authors, led by Peter Clark
of Oregon State University, generated new scenarios for temperature rise, glacial melting, sea - level rise and coastal flooding based on state -
of - the - art climate and
ice sheet models.
To investigate this, DeConto and Pollard developed a new
ice sheet - climate
model that includes «previously under - appreciated processes» that emphasize the importance
of future atmospheric warming around Antarctica.
By 2100, the choice
of driving climate
model conditions dominates the uncertainty, but by 2200, the uncertainty in the
ice sheet model and the elevation scheme are larger.
By combining satellite images
of the
ice sheet and wind stress data from observations and computer
modeling, Greene and his collaborators were able to study the chain
of events that brings the warm water to Totten.
Climate
models are not yet able to include full
models of the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets and to dynamically simulate how
ice sheet changes influence sea level.
«Sea - level rise could nearly double over earlier estimates in next 100 years: Researchers
model effects
of melting Antarctic
ice sheets.»
The revised estimate for sea - level rise comes from including new processes in the 3 - dimensional
ice sheet model, and testing them against past episodes
of high sea - levels and
ice retreat.
«It's a major impediment to developing realistic
ice sheet models when you don't even know how thick some
of these outlet glaciers are,» says Eric Rignot, a remote - sensing glaciologist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
The results provide insights to guide ongoing development
of fully dynamic coupled
ice sheet models.
A new method that includes the effects
of elevation and region was developed using a detailed regional
model of the Greenland
ice sheet.
Surprise find The team's actual mission was to survey ocean currents near the Ross
Ice Shelf, a slab of ice extending more than 600 miles (970 kilometers) northward from the grounding zone of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet into the Ross Sea, to model the behavior of a drill string, a length of pipe extending to the seafloor which delivers drilling fluids and retrieves sediment sampl
Ice Shelf, a slab
of ice extending more than 600 miles (970 kilometers) northward from the grounding zone of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet into the Ross Sea, to model the behavior of a drill string, a length of pipe extending to the seafloor which delivers drilling fluids and retrieves sediment sampl
ice extending more than 600 miles (970 kilometers) northward from the grounding zone
of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet into the Ross Sea, to model the behavior of a drill string, a length of pipe extending to the seafloor which delivers drilling fluids and retrieves sediment sampl
Ice Sheet into the Ross Sea, to
model the behavior
of a drill string, a length
of pipe extending to the seafloor which delivers drilling fluids and retrieves sediment samples.
The international research initiative IceGeoHeat led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences establishes in the current online issue
of Nature Geoscience that this effect can not be neglected when
modeling the
ice sheet as part
of a climate study.
But most
of all, she wanted to know whether Pappalardo's
model of Europa's
ice sheet jibed with all he had learned from almost 30 years
of studying
ice on Earth.
Her
model describes the
ice sheet as a heat - driven conveyor belt enabling the three requirements
of life — water, energy, and chemistry — to exist in the same place at the same time.
«Our
model experiments show that from 15000 to 13000 years ago, the Eurasian
ice sheet lost 750 cubic kilometres
of ice a year.
In other words, the losses
of mass
of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet will intensify — just like the
models predict.»
The long - term evolution
of an
ice sheet «is a very complex
modeling problem.
Based on the southern core we thought this was a localized low heat - flux region — but our
model shows that a much larger part
of the southern
ice sheet has low heat flux.
A new
model, investigating the retreat
of this
ice sheet and its many impacts has just been published in Quaternary Science Reviews.
Indeed, many numerical
ice sheet models of Greenland assume that a uniform value
of geothermal heat flux exists everywhere across Greenland.
When the researchers compared their results with the output
of a number
of climate
models, they found that several
of the newer
models that have higher resolution and use updated
ice sheet configurations do «a very good job»
of reproducing the patterns observed in the proxy records.
Many older
models of Greenland assumed that its massive
ice sheet sat on bedrock that was relatively flat, even though scientists did not know the full thickness
of the
ice.
The researchers then used a computer
model of Earth that simulated growth in the Antarctic
ice sheet to see what geophysical impacts this would have aside from generally lowering the sea level.
Dr Ian Joughin at the University
of Washington, author
of a recent study simulating future Antarctic
ice sheet losses added: «This study does a nice job
of revealing the strong thinning along the Amundsen Coast, which is consistent with theory and
models indicating this region is in the early stages
of collapse.»
Researchers used geologic evidence and
ice sheet models to construct a timeline
of the Cordilleran's advance and retreat.