Precipitation patterns
of increased water vapour in clouds are generating massive water dumps and prolonged precipitation.
Not exact matches
One
of the most interesting findings was that stomatal pores on the surface
of the leaf (small holes that control the uptake
of CO2 for photosynthesis and the loss
of water vapour)
increase in number after multi-generation exposure to future CO2.
The result is that when
water vapour processes are correctly represented, the sensitivity
of the climate to a doubling
of carbon dioxide — which will occur in the next 50 years — means we can expect a temperature
increase of at least 4 °C by 2100.
In addition, around the tropopause the air is close to saturation with
water and a small
increase of vapour from aircraft can create wide expanses
of thin cirrus clouds that cause even stronger warming.
At temperate latitudes in the northern hemisphere, air traffic has
increased the amount
of water vapour in the lower stratosphere by about 10 per cent over the past thirty years.
This is a function
of the
increase in fractionation as
water vapour is continually removed from the air.
Recent studies have shown a doubling
of stratospheric
water vapour, likely from
increasing atmospheric heights due to global warming, overshooting thunderstorm tops from stronger tropical cyclones and mesoscale convective systems etc...
I would assume that the
increase in stratospheric
water vapour would make for a thicker vail
of sulfuric acid given a large volcanic eruption.
And that additional
water vapour would in turn cause further warming - this being a positive feedback, in which carbon dioxide acts as a direct regulator
of temperature, and is then joined in that role by more
water vapour as temperatures
increase.
Observational evidence indicates that the frequency
of the heaviest rainfall events has likely
increased within many land regions in general agreement with model simulations that indicate that rainfall in the heaviest events is likely to
increase in line with atmospheric
water vapour concentration.
Simulations and observations
of total atmospheric
water vapour averaged over oceans agree closely when the simulations are constrained by observed SSTs, suggesting that anthropogenic influence has contributed to an
increase in total atmospheric
water vapour.
2) In a confined volume, an
increase in evaporation will result in an
increased vapour pressure
of H2O in the atmosphere above the
water surface.
Source: Lyman 2010 The reaction
of the oceans to climate change are some
of the most profound across the entire environment, including disruption
of the ocean food chain through chemical changes caused by CO2, the ability
of the sea to absorb CO2 being limited by temperature
increases, (and the potential to expel sequestered CO2 back into the atmosphere as the
water gets hotter), sea - level rise due to thermal expansion, and the amount
of water vapour in the atmosphere.
Scientists agree that a doubling
of atmospheric CO2 levels could result in temperature
increases of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C, caused by rapid changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour
of clouds and
water vapour.
The
increase in
water vapour as the surface warms is key, but so might be changes in boundary layer stability, rossby wave generation via longitudinally varying responses at the surface, impacts
of the stratopshere on the steering
of the jet, and the situation is completely different again for tropical storms.
1998 was so warm in part because
of the big El Niño event over the winter
of 1997 - 1998 which directly warmed a large part
of the Pacific, and indirectly warmed (via the large
increase in
water vapour) an even larger region.
So we've nailed the Arctic after a fashion & Rondonia for three months
of the year, both instances with quite extreme
increases in
water vapour.
Alastair notes that
increased water vapour will carry more energy to the surface
of the glaciers, likewise these
increased water flows over, through and under the glaciers is also transferring vast amounts
of energy into the ice.
Given the lower temperatures and lower
water vapour content at higher altitudes and a need for high supercooling to initiate condensation (in the absence
of sufficient normal CCN), wouldn't an
increased source
of nuclei, in the form
of GCRs, enhance high - and middle - altitude cloud formation?
Indeed, there is a clear physical reason why this is the case — the
increase in
water vapour as surface air temperature rises causes a change in the moist - adiabatic lapse rate (the decrease
of temperature with height) such that the surface to mid-tropospheric gradient decreases with
increasing temperature (i.e. it warms faster aloft).
As I understand all models they all predict a
water vapour based forcing caused by
increased temperatures leading to
increased levels
of water vapour and hence an
increased greenhouse effect.
Other feedbacks include forests, and most importantly,
water vapour, which as the temperature
of the atmosphere rises
increases in the atmosphere (think tropical rain forest), and
water vapour is a potent greenhouse gas (but it is not the «controller»
of our climate because it does not accumulate in the atmosphere, only gases like CO2, methane and nitrous oxide do this) See Skeptical Science https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
For reference, the amplification is related to the sensitivity
of the moist adiabat to
increasing surface temperatures (air parcels saturated in
water vapour move up because
of convection where the
water vapour condenses and releases heat in a predictable way).
and first mention
of «global warming» on pg xi The main greenhouse gas,
water vapour, will
increase in response to global warming and further enhance it»
(c) The level
of water vapour depends on the global temperature, so it is roughly fixed until something else warms the atmosphere when it
increases in amount producing more warming.
The rise
of CO2 from 270ppm to now over 400ppm, the extent
of equatorial and sub tropical deforestation, the soot deposits on the polar ice caps, the
increase in atmospheric
water vapour due to a corresponding
increase in ocean temps and changes in ocean currents, the extreme ice albedo currently happening in the arctic etc, etc are all conspiring in tandem to alter the climate as we know it.
And the other sort
of latent heat, a decrease in atmospheric
water vapour is also the stuff
of fantasy requiring a change
of 50,000 cu km when the atmosphere only contains (and only can contain) ~ 13,000 cu km without crazy temperature
increases.
[10] All
of the models used by the IPCC assume that this
increase in
water vapour will result in a positive feedback in the order
of 3 - 4 times the
increase in temperature that would be caused by the
increase in CO2 alone.
The
increased water vapour blocks long wave radiation which causes an
increase in temperature
of tropical troposphere at around 8K and an
increase in long wave radiation, a portion
of which is emitted back down to the surface
of the planet to amplify the CO2 forcing.
The observed regional changes are consistent in pattern and amount with the changes in SST and the assumption
of a near - constant relative humidity
increase in
water vapour mixing ratio.
Much
of the warming feared by the alarmists relies upon a positive feedback involving
increased water vapour exaggerating any CO2 warming effect.
Higher modelled temperature in the troposphere enables the general circulation model to assume there is more
water vapour in the troposphere which amplifies the CO2 forcing by
increasing the amount
of water vapor in troposphere.
Empirical data show clearly that the IPCC's deterministic models overestimate the amount
of warming associated with
increases in
water vapour (see paper summaries in NIPCC - II, Chapter 1).
We have far more data about
increasing CO2 than
increasing water vapor, hence if we want to test this hypothesis by looking for a correlation between global warming and the combined effect
of CO2 and H2O, a correlation with CO2 alone is more feasible than one involving
water vapour.
Thus a change
of water vapour, sky radiation and tempcrature is corrected by a change
of cloudiness and atmospheric circulation, the former
increasing the reflection loss and thus reducing the effective sun heat.
If an
increase of 5 % in CO2 results in an
increase of 1 % in
water vapour, and if
water vapour has say 30x the influence
of CO2 on heat trapping, then a 1 %
increase in CO2 will result in an
increase of 30/5 = 6 % in the heat trapping impact
of water vapour.
However, you have avoided my last comment that without a positive feedback from
water vapour there is no chance
of runaway global warming arising from
increasing atmospheric CO2 levels.
The IPCC's AR5 indicates that, apart from the
Water Vapour Increase feedback, permafrost melt and the other main feedbacks were viewed as being insignificant to the outcome
of the RCP scenarios.
Moreover, the study excluded the direct reinforcements
of the rate
of melting by all other feedbacks and its delayed reinforcement by all but the
Water Vapour Increase feedback.
Ocean Heating & Acidification —
of which the heating component has to have preceded the raised surface air temperature around 1800 that drove the first
water vapour increase.
The sum
of the warming potential
of all gases emitted (including CO2, methane and
water vapour) which influence the energy balance
of the atmosphere leading to
increased average temperatures.
The atmosphere now holds 4 % more
water vapour than it did 40 years ago as a result
of increasing temperatures.
It is noteworthy that the influence
of warmer temperatures and
increased water vapour in the atmosphere (Section 2.5.3) are not independent events, and are likely to be jointly related to
increases in heavy and extreme precipitation events.
The so - called
water vapour feedback, caused by an
increase in atmospheric
water vapour due to a temperature
increase, is the most important feedback responsible for the amplification
of the temperature
increase.
Since then, satellite reading
of temperatures and the occlusion
of numerous infrared bands, ground based, aircraft and balloon measurements
of same, and an ever -
increasing data base
of the optical properties
of CO2 (and other gases, like
water vapour), have helped refine radiation calculations towards determining the atmospheric heat budget.
Here's a study which highlights the importance
of increased tropospheric humidity (
water vapour) in amplifying a warming effect during the afforementioned Paleocene — Eocene Thermal Maximum — ttp: / / www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7016/full/nature03115.
«The pervasive
increase in
water vapour changes the intensity
of precipitation events with no doubt whatsoever,» Kevin Trenberth
of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research told a meeting in January.
While what I have described is a bit simplistic, it gives the gist
of why the CO2 emissions are significant: not only is CO2 a greenhouse gas, but its effect causes other significant changes to take place, such as
increased uptake
of water vapour into the atmosphere.
To date, while various effects and feedbacks constrain the certainty placed on recent and projected climate change (EG, albedo change, the response
of water vapour, various future emissions scenarios etc), it is virtually certain that CO2
increases from human industry have reversed and will continue to reverse the downward trend in global temperatures that should be expected in the current phase
of the Milankovitch cycle.
This temp
increase will eventually cause more
water vapour to be released and so you have a runaway effect (assuming
of course that the
water vapour can cause a larger
increase in temp then the original forcing).