Most likely we are already committed to at least some of these climate changes, and even if the models are wrong and these increased
numbers of intense hurricanes fail to emerge in the future, Knutson and his colleagues believe that society still needs to work harder at minimizing the damage hurricanes cause.
The episode also features the actor Ian Somerhalder, who journeys to the Bahamas to investigate the prospect that warming oceans could spawn a
period of intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Aerosols in the lower atmosphere have reduced global warming and the frequency
of intense hurricanes by reflecting a small fraction of sunlight back to space.
Let's unpack them and explore what they mean not just for Texas and Florida, but for all communities at
risk of intense hurricanes in the future.
In the
midst of an intense hurricane season, a historical perspective published in WIREs Climate Change looks at adaptation to hurricanes in New Orleans over nearly three centuries, from its foundation in 1718 to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
That trend is likely to continue and scientists project that it could help increase the number
of intense hurricanes while possibly reducing the overall number of all storms.
The most recent study on the issue, published this month in the journal Science, found that while the incidence of hurricanes and tropical storms has remained roughly constant over the last 30 years, there has been a rise in the number
of intense hurricanes with wind speeds above 211km / h (131mph).
The periods
of intense hurricanes uncovered by the new research were driven in part by intervals of warm sea surface temperatures that previous research has shown occurred during these time periods, according to the new study.
«An important finding is that the
proportion of intense hurricanes appears to initially increase in response to warming oceans, but then approach a saturation level after which no further increases occur.
While Grinsted predicts that the most intense hurricanes will continue to become more and more frequent in a warming world, the results of Holland and Bruyère suggest that we may be near the
peak of intense hurricane frequency.
A few weeks after Landsea received his third IPCC invitation he was surprised to hear that Trenberth intended to participate in a press conference that would claim that experts believe global warming will continue to spur «more
outbreaks of intense hurricane activity.»
A group of climatologists at Georgia Tech claim that a rise in sea surface temperatures over the last 30 years is «directly linked» to increases in the number
of intense hurricanes.
You can see a number
of intense hurricanes were still able to form in the western Atlantic away from the constant stream of Saharan dust.