There is observational evidence for an increase
of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.
• About the past: «There is observational evidence for an increase
of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.
There is observational evidence for an increase
of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases in tropical SSTs.
A team from Korea has found that the threat
of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia has risen since the late 1970s.
Not exact matches
Hurricane Rita is the fourth-most
intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and the most
intense tropical cyclone observed in the Gulf
of Mexico.
Over the past three decades, the incidence
of cyclones in the tropics has actually diminished — because while
tropical cyclones may become more
intense in a warmer climate, it is actually more difficult to generate them.
That signal is translating into all sorts
of events — droughts,
intense rainfall, more
intense tropical cyclone activity, crop stress, heat waves, and so on.
These shifts may include rising sea levels, stronger
tropical cyclones, the loss
of soil moisture under higher temperatures, more
intense precipitation and flooding, more frequent droughts, the melting
of glaciers and the changing seasonality
of snowmelt.
Instead, the report focuses on problems that are likely to disproportionately hit developing countries: coastal inundation from rising sea levels, plummeting food production and associated malnutrition, unprecedented heat waves, increasing fresh water scarcity, more frequent and
intense tropical cyclones, and the loss
of biodiversity.
While some studies consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency
of tropical cyclones, substantial increases are projected in the frequency
of the most
intense cyclones.
Tropical storms can be fairly mighty too... The second grey line gives an indication
of the ratio
intense (category 3 and higher) to weak
cyclones.
According to the IPCC AR5, however, there are little indications
of a change in the number
of tropical cyclones, although they are becoming more intense (p. 107, TS.5.8.4 Cy
cyclones, although they are becoming more
intense (p. 107, TS.5.8.4
CyclonesCyclones):
Alarmed at the pace
of change to our Earth caused by human - induced climate change, including accelerating melting and loss
of ice from Greenland, the Himalayas and Antarctica, acidification
of the world's oceans due to rising CO2 concentrations, increasingly
intense tropical cyclones, more damaging and
intense drought and floods, including glacial lakes outburst loods, in many regions and higher levels
of sea - level rise than estimated just a few years ago, risks changing the face
of the planet and threatening coastal cities, low lying areas, mountainous regions and vulnerable countries the world over,
(2) low to mid-latitude coastal regions are already facing a greater likelihood
of very
intense tropical cyclones that are drawing energy from significantly warmer ocean waters.
A name
of Chinese origin, meaning «great wind» applied to the
intense tropical cyclones which occur in the western Pacific Ocean.
The vulnerable nations declared that they are, «Alarmed at the pace
of change to our Earth caused by human - induced climate change, including accelerating melting and loss
of ice from Greenland, the Himalayas and Antarctica, acidification
of the world's oceans due to rising CO2 concentrations, increasingly
intense tropical cyclones, more damaging and
intense drought and floods, including Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods, in many regions and higher levels
of sea - level rise than estimated just a few years ago, risks changing the face
of the planet and threatening coastal cities, low lying areas, mountainous regions and vulnerable countries the world over...»
And a recent rash
of unusually
intense cyclones may be linked to changes in the
tropical Pacific.
Which forms the basis for the IPCC claim
of high climate sensitivity (mean value
of 3.2 C), resulting in significant global warming (up to 6.4 C warming by 2100), «extreme high sea levels», increased «heat waves», increased «heavy rains» and floods, increased «droughts», increased «
intense tropical cyclones» — which, in turn, lead to crop failures, disappearance
of glaciers now supplying drinking water to millions, increased vector borne diseases, etc. (for short, potentially catastrophic AGW — or «CAGW»).
-- I have listed the «catastrophic results» that are projected to occur, according to IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM, pp. 8 and 13: temperature increase
of up to 6.4 °C, heat waves, floods, droughts, increased
intense tropical cyclones, extreme high sea level, as well as some
of the secondary impacts, which IPCC projects in WG2, WG3: crop failures, disappearing glaciers now supplying drinking water for millions, spread
of vector diseases, etc..
For example, science can identify how much monetary loss might occur if
tropical cyclones grow more
intense or heat waves more frequent, or identify the land that might be lost in coastal communities for various levels
of higher seas.
The largest storm by area
of any storm on record we can confirm by instrumental observations is Sandy, the first
of the frankenstorms formed as a result
of the merging
of a
tropical cyclone and an
intense arctic low.
What the report says about
tropical cyclones and climate change: The frequency
of the most
intense hurricanes is projected to increase in the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific.
He told Thomson Reuters Foundation at the UN-backed climate talks in Warsaw that «the global frequency
of tropical cyclones will change little (as a result
of climate change) but the frequency
of the most
intense cyclones will increase in some regions.»
39) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says «it is likely that future
tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more
intense» but there has been no increase in the intensity or frequency
of tropical cyclones globally
The report cites Bangladesh, already threatened by frequent floods and extreme weather, as just one
of more «potential impact hotspots» threatened by «extreme river floods, more
intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels and very high temperatures».
The possibility
of climate change leading to more
intense tropical cyclone activity, particularly in the North Atlantic, continues to receive significant research attention.
Writing as background for his work, Seo states that alarming predictions
of more
intense hurricanes because
of climate change «are
of great concern,» yet he says there have been «few TC [
tropical cyclone] studies in the Southern Hemisphere,» adding that there has been «no economic assessment
of damages in the past.»
The kind
of things I'm referring to are more frequent and
intense heatwaves, flooding and droughts, sea level rise and its associated impacts, glacier melt, damage to sensitive ecosystems, increased
tropical cyclone activity, increased hurricane strength, ocean acidification.
Global warming «particularly affects formation
of heat waves, droughts,
intense precipitation events, and in the long run most probably also
tropical cyclone intensity,» Munich Re said.
If a noted climate scientist explains multi-year changes in ocean heat storage in terms
of «
tropical variablity» or «weather», I would suspect that any particularly
intense tropical cyclone (or season, or multiple seasons) would surely also fall into this category
of «
tropical variability».
... Trend analyses for extreme
tropical cyclones are unreliable because
of operational changes that have artificially resulted in more
intense tropical cyclones being recorded, casting severe doubts on any such trend linkages to global warming.
Re # 112: «If a noted climate scientist explains multi-year changes in ocean heat storage in terms
of «
tropical variablity» or «weather», I would suspect that any particularly
intense tropical cyclone (or season, or multiple seasons) would surely also fall into this category
of «
tropical variability».»
Based on our published results and as well as those
of other modeling groups, we conclude that at the global scale: a future increase in
tropical cyclone precipitation rates is likely; an increase in
tropical cyclone intensity is likely; an increase in very
intense (category 4 and 5)
tropical cyclones is more likely than not; and there is medium confidence in a decrease in the frequency
of weaker
tropical cyclones.
Key findings from these experiments include: fewer
tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late - twenty - first - century climate (Figure 8), but also an increase in average
cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days
of very
intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in
tropical cyclone precipitation rates (Figure 10).
Anthropogenic warming by the end
of the 21st century will likely cause
tropical cyclones globally to be more
intense on average (by 2 to 11 % according to model projections for an IPCC mid-range scenario).