With the unemployment rate down to just 4.1 %, any increase in wages as a share of GDP should be expected to diminish profit margins from the extremes they've enjoyed as a result
of labor market slack in this cycle.
A broader measure
of labor market slack, the number of people who are in part - time employment but would like a full - time position (the U-6 underemployment rate), has also been drifting lower (to 10.3 % in August).
When the U-3 unemployment rate suggested that the economy was approaching full employment, Chair Yellen held her ground and directed market participants to look at broader economic indicators for signs
of labor market slack (please see: Yellen's opposition to following «simple monetary policy rules»).
A key measure
of labor market slack - the number of job seekers for every open position - hit its lowest level since 2007 in December.
Not exact matches
The four - week moving average
of continuing claims fell 750, to 1.90 million, the lowest level since Jan. 12, 1974, suggesting a continued decline in
labor market slack.
The Fed last month gave an upbeat view
of the jobs
market, saying that
labor market slack was «gradually diminishing.»
If this attribution were correct, there would be little
labor market slack left in the US economy, and the standard unemployment rate (minus the best - guess nonaccelerating inflation rate
of unemployment [NAIRU]-RRB- would be a nearly sufficient target for that
slack.
«And at this stage
of the game, with inflation BELOW target and plenty
of slack in
labor markets, that could very well be a mistake.
At the same time, Janet Yellen has said that she's willing to tolerate a period
of time in which inflation is above the Fed's 2 % goal, if that stance can help guarantee that
slack is eliminated from the
labor market and full employment is achieved.
Details
of the employment report were upbeat, with most
of the measures Fed Chair Janet Yellen tracks to gauge the amount
of slack in the
labor market showing further improvement.
She said: «But it is my judgment that the lower level
of the unemployment rate today probably does not fully capture the extent
of slack remaining in the
labor market — in other words, how far away we are from a full - employment economy.»
(One third
of inequality is due to lack
of union density, Perez says, and the
labor market still has
slack.)
We've also still got
slack in the
labor market — put all
of these factors together and we're a few years behind the US on rates.»
This potential relaxation
of fiscal constraints is significant, particularly when you consider that the economy, specifically the
labor market, has less
slack than at any point in the post-crisis period.
Our analysis leverages data from the U.S. Census and Bureau
of Labor Statistics to determine how much new housing a metro can build, the amount
of slack in the housing
market and the impact
of an influx
of high - wage workers.
With an energy - related rebound in inflation fading, signs
of improving economic conditions need to be put into perspective, as the output gap across the region as a whole remains large, and so does the
slack in its
labor market.
With an energy - related rebound in inflation fading, signs
of improving economic conditions need to be put into perspective — despite the strong performance
of Germany, the bloc's largest economy — as the output gap across the region as a whole remains large, and so does the
slack in its
labor market.
Economist Jessica Hinds at Capital Economics said there is «still plenty
of slack in the
labor market» with high jobless rates
of 16.1 percent in Spain, 10.9 percent in Italy and 8.9 percent in France.
Because the decline is being driven by unusual
labor - force flows — aging workers retiring, the lure
of government disability payments, discouraged workers and other factors — the jobless rate is a perplexing indicator
of job -
market slack and vigor.
The pace
of wage growth has been restrained amid excess
slack in the
labor markets, but the
labor force participation rate has recently stabilized and
labor markets are currently nearing full employment, supporting core inflation.
We analyzed data from the U.S. Census and Bureau
of Labor Statistics to determine how much new housing a metro can build, the amount
of slack in the housing
market and the impact
of an influx
of high - wage workers.