Today a new set of fundamental holdings
of land surface air temperature records stretching back deep into the 19th Century has been released as a result of several years of effort by a multinational group of scientists.
Further, we are key players in an effort to transform and update our understanding
of land surface air temperatures through the International Surface Temperature Initiative [described in a recent paper, «Guiding the creation of a comprehensive surface temperature resource for twenty - first - century climate science.»
that the warming
of land surface air temperatures is primarily a response to the warming of sea surface temperatures.
Not exact matches
The Tibetan Plateau in China experiences the strongest monsoon system on Earth, with powerful winds — and accompanying intense rains in the summer months — caused by a complex system
of global
air circulation patterns and differences in
surface temperatures between
land and oceans.
Sea -
surface temperature is an important driver
of the weather, and because the oceans change
temperature very slowly compared with the
air and
land, they form a key, predictable component
of seasonal forecasts.
The observed fact that
temperatures increases slower over the oceans than over
land demonstrates that the large heat capacity
of the ocean tries to hold back the warming
of the
air over the ocean and produces a delay at the
surface but nevertheless the atmosphere responds quit rapidly to increasing greenhouse gases.
They wrote that their comparisons
of sea - level pressures, sea -
surface temperatures and
land - based
air temperatures provided «consistent evidence for strong» regulation
of temperatures by changes in ocean cycles «from monthly to century time scales.»
What we think
of as the modern
temperature record is made up
of many thousands
of measurements from the
air above
land and the ocean
surface, collected by ships, buoys and sometimes satellites, too.
There are some various proposed mechanisms to explain this that involve the
surface energy balance (e.g., less coupling between the ground
temperature and lower
air temperature over
land because
of less potential for evaporation), and also lapse rate differences over ocean and
land (see Joshi et al 2008, Climate Dynamics), as well as vegetation or cloud changes.
land surface air temperature) wouldn't cause the whole edifice
of anthropogenic global warming to collapse.
(The specific dataset used as the foundation
of the composition was the Combined
Land -
Surface Air and Sea -
Surface Water
Temperature Anomalies Zonal annual means.)
However, the CRU global mean combined
land air / sea
surface temperature estimates for Jan - Aug 2005 lag behind the 1998 annual mean estimate by 0.08 C (0.50 C vs. 58C for 1998) while GISS indicates a lag
of 0.02 C.
How to avoid problems with most
land - based
temperature weather stations: Use lighthouses as thermometers for accurate and unbiased measurement
of surface air temperature.
Seems to me the debate about AGHG global warming and increasing TC frequency / intensity / duration boils down to the fact that as sea
surface temperatures, as well as deeper water
temperatures rise, the wallop
of any TC over warmer seas without mitigating circumstances like wind sheer and dry
air off
land masses entrained in the cyclone will likely be much more devastating.
where depending on the wind direction and time
of year, the
air that the
temperature sensor monitors may transit a dirt road, crops, or other
land surface varations, each with a different
surface heat budget., before reaching the
temperature observing site.
Animation 1 compares the GISS
land surface air temperature trends to UAH lower troposphere
temperature trends over
land for the period
of 1979 to 2012.
Temperature change from climate models, including that reported in 1988 (12), usually refers to temperature of surface air over both land
Temperature change from climate models, including that reported in 1988 (12), usually refers to
temperature of surface air over both land
temperature of surface air over both
land and ocean.
It's hard to imagine how Cowtan and Way could determine with any degree
of certainty how «the hybrid method works best over
land and most importantly sea ice» when there is so little
surface air temperature data over sea ice.
Aqua's suite
of instruments include devices that will measure cloud properties, the wetness
of land surfaces,
land and sea
temperatures, humidity and
temperature at different levels
of the atmosphere, the properties
of particles in the
air, fluctuations in solar energy absorption and many other parameters.
This warming can be seen in measurements
of troposphere
temperatures measured by weather balloons and satellites, in measurements
of ocean heat content, sea
surface temperature (measured in situ and by satellites),
air temperatures over the ocean,
air temperature over
land.
Effects
of explicit convection on
land surface air temperature and
land - atmosphere coupling in the thermal feedback pathway, in revision for JAMES.
The 2009 State
of the Climate Report
of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tells us that climate change is real because
of rising
surface air temperatures since 1880 over
land and the ocean, ocean acidification, sea level rise, glaciers melting, rising specific humidity, ocean heat content increasing, sea ice retreating, glaciers diminishing, Northern Hemisphere snow cover decreasing, and so many other lines
of evidence.
These issues, which are either not recognized at all in the assessments or are understated, include: - the identification
of a warm bias in nighttime minimum
temperatures - poor siting
of the instrumentation to measure
temperatures - the influence
of trends in
surface air water vapor content on
temperature trends - the quantification
of uncertainties in the homogenization
of surface temperature data, and the influence
of land use /
land cover change on
surface temperature trends.
The annual anomaly
of the global average
surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average
of the near -
surface air temperature over
land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010 average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891.
Water takes longer to heat up and cool down than does the
air or
land, so ocean warming is considered to be a better indicator
of global warming than measurements
of global atmospheric
temperatures at the Earth's
surface.
Surface warming: «Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset
Surface warming: «Global
temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4
temperature series and its impact on recent
temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability
of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global
land -
surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset
surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset»
For example, let's say that evidence convinced me (in a way that I wasn't convinced previously) that all recent changes in
land surface temperatures and sea
surface temperatures and atmospheric
temperatures and deep sea
temperatures and sea ice extent and sea ice volume and sea ice density and moisture content in the
air and cloud coverage and rainfall and measures
of extreme weather were all directly tied to internal natural variability, and that I can now see that as the result
of a statistical modeling
of the trends as associated with natural phenomena.
They avoid some
of the issues in Millar by using more globally - representative
surface temperature records, though they still use series that blend
surface air temperatures over
land with slower - warming sea
surface temperatures over the ocean.
According to NOAA's 2016 Arctic Report Card, the average annual
surface air temperature anomaly (+3.6 °F / 2.0 °C relative to the 1981 - 2010 baseline) over
land north
of 60 ° N between October 2015 and September 2016 was by far the highest in the observational record beginning in 1900.
Figure 1: Global
temperatures from models are calculated using
air temperatures above the
land surface and also from the upper few meters
of the ocean.
To get a complete picture
of Earth's
temperature, scientists combine measurements from the
air above
land and the ocean
surface collected by ships, buoys and sometimes satellites, too.
While consistent with the IPCC assessments
of historical warming, it lacks coverage
of much
of the fast - warming Arctic region and blends
surface air temperatures over
land with slower - warming sea
surface temperatures over the ocean.
Since then there are a number
of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a global tas (
temperature air surface) but the actual observations are a combination
of tas (
land) and SST oceans, meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
• You are possibly aware that the
land surface temperatures are not actually
of the
land, but the near
surface air temperatures, and I seem to recall that in the past you believed that they are strongly influenced by atmospheric CO2 levels which you claimed are evenly mixed globally including at ~ 3,000 metres altitude at Moana Loa.
These are created by combining ship - and buoy - based measurements
of ocean sea
surface temperatures with
temperature readings
of the
surface air temperature from weather stations on
land.
The changes produced a decrease
of 0.006 °C / decade for the 1880 to 2014 trend
of the annual mean
land surface air temperature rather than the 0.003 °C / decade increase reported by NCEI.
HadSST3, HADISST and ERSST.v3b, all include bucket model adjusted ICOADS data, and HADCRUT4 is «a blend
of the CRUTEM4
land -
surface air temperature dataset and the HadSST3 sea -
surface temperature (SST) dataset.»
I'm inclined to think that Ocean Heat Content, trends in
land ice and Sea levels are more appropriate indicators
of global climate change than
surface air temperatures, but that's another issue.
And the impacts
of the North Atlantic on
land surface air temperatures of the northern hemisphere are well studied.
They wrote that their comparisons
of sea - level pressures, sea -
surface temperatures and
land - based
air temperatures provided «consistent evidence for strong» regulation
of temperatures by changes in ocean cycles «from monthly to century time scales.»
The fact this is seemingly not fully recognized — or here integrated — by Curry goes to the same reason Curry does not recognize why the so called «pause» is a fiction, why the «slowing»
of the «rate»
of increase in average ambient global
land and ocean
surface air temperatures over a shorter term period from the larger spike beyond the longer term mean
of the 90s is also meaningless in terms
of the basic issue, and why the average ambient increase in global
air temperatures over such a short term is by far the least important empirical indicia
of the issue.
The
surface data (left panel) are comprised
of surface air temperature over
land and the
temperature of water at the ocean's
surface, and have been subjected to a slight additional smoothing to simplify the pattern (Jones et al., 1999).
Running four - month averages
of anomalies over
land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity
of surface air, the volumetric moisture content
of the top 7 cm
of soil and
surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running four - month averages
of anomalies over
land areas for NE Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity
of surface air, the volumetric moisture content
of the top 7 cm
of soil and
surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running four - month averages
of anomalies over
land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity
of surface air, the volumetric moisture content
of the top 7 cm
of soil and
surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
It may be a consequence
of a period in which
surface air temperature rose faster over
land than it did over sea.
Running four - month averages
of anomalies over
land areas for NW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity
of surface air, the volumetric moisture content
of the top 7 cm
of soil and
surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
«Causes
of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates» «Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data» «Robust comparison
of climate models with observations using blended
land air and ocean sea
surface temperatures» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4
temperature series and its impact on recent
temperature trends» «Reconciling warming trends» «Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled» «Reconciling controversies about the «global warming hiatus»»
The time series uses - an area - weighted average
of the
surface air temperature over
land and the
temperature of water at the ocean's
surface.
Figure 2.4 (Folland et al., 2001) shows simulations
of global
land -
surface air temperature anomalies in model runs forced with SST, with and without bias adjustments to the SST data before 1942.