NSIDC scientists point out why we shouldn't be reading too much into one summer
of less sea ice decline.
Summer of 2008 shows a large region
of less sea ice than normal over the Beaufort Sea compared to 2005 which had less ice cover than normal in the Eastern Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea.
Not exact matches
Further, the
less time an
ice sheet has to create new layers
of ice each winter, the
less strong
ice is created and built into centuries
of previous strong
sea ice, leaving ever more vulnerable and easy - to - melt
sea ice.
With a shorter season
of sea ice, polar bears have
less access to marine mammals.
But new analyses like this, which show previously undiscovered deep canyons, suggest that a good chunk
of East Antarctica's bed lies below
sea level, rendering the
ice sheet
less stable than previously thought.
For example, Kangerdlugssuaq glacier has lost mass from melting and, in its thinner form, has
less weight to speed the flow
of its
ice toward the
sea.
«We can also combine that data with projections
of sea ice, to predict how much more or
less it will cost these animals to make a living over the next century,» Fischbach says.
As the Arctic summers are getting warmer we may see an acceleration
of global warming, because reduced
sea ice in the Arctic will remove
less CO2 from the atmosphere, Danish scientists report.
In the hot spots
of the Amundsen and Bellinghausen
seas, the
ice shelves lost 18 %
of their thickness in
less than 20 years.
The negative impacts
of warmer winters may be
less evident in Nordic countries than in places like Alaska, where people and animals like polar bears and seals are more dependent on the presence
of sea ice, according to Serreze.
In addition, now that
sea ice blankets the Southern Ocean off the western Antarctic Peninsula far
less than before, more water is evaporating and forming precipitation, largely in the form
of snow.
Political divisions are
less apparent with factual questions that do not infer climate change, such as whether the melting
of Greenland and Antarctic land
ice, or
of Arctic
sea ice, could potentially do the most to raise
sea levels.
In a study published in the actual volume
of Nature Communications, geo - and climate researchers at the Alfred - Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar - and Marine Research (AWI) show that, in the course
of our planet's history, summertime
sea ice was to be found in the central Arctic in periods characterised by higher global temperatures — but
less CO2 — than today.
The East Antarctic
ice sheet has long been considered relatively stable because most
of the
ice sheet was thought to rest on bedrock above
sea level, making it
less susceptible to changes in climate.
The recent string
of record - low winter maximums could be a sign that the large summer losses are starting to show up more in other seasons, with an increasingly delayed fall freeze - up that leaves
less time for
sea ice to accumulate in winter, Julienne Stroeve, an NSIDC scientist and University College London professor, previously said.
In September 2007
less sea ice covered the Arctic than at any point since the U.S. government began keeping records
of its decline.
First
of all,
less sea ice is forming in the region, and secondly, oceanographic recordings from the continental shelf break confirm that the warm water masses are already moving closer and closer to the
ice shelf in pulses,» says Dr Hartmut Hellmer, an oceanographer at the AWI and first author
of the study.
During the later period, when there was
less sea ice, the whales dove significantly longer and deeper than in the earlier period — presumably in search
of prey as the animals, in turn, changed their habits because
of different ocean conditions brought on by
sea ice loss.
Chinstrap and Gentoo penguins, for example, are
less dependent on
sea ice for their survival and have immigrated into some
of the strongholds once dominated by Adélie penguins.
Interestingly, the Antarctic Peninsula supports extremely high krill biomass and predator densities in a region that experiences
less sea ice than colder, adjacent regions
of the Antarctic [6].
The global mean temperature rise
of less than 1 degree C in the past century does not seem like much, but it is associated with a winter temperature rise
of 3 to 4 degrees C over most
of the Arctic in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss
of ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease
of 15 to 20 % in late summer
sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host
of other measured signs
of anomalous and rapid climate change.
The accelerating melting
of land
ice into the
sea makes the surface
of the ocean around Antarctica colder,
less salty and more easily frozen, leading to extensive
sea ice in some areas.
The findings suggest that while the response
of Antarctic summer
sea ice to human - caused climate change may be
less dramatic than in the Arctic,
sea ice cover may have declined by as much as 14 % over the last 100 years.
Sea ice extent has dropped precipitously as has the amount
of old
ice, which is
less prone to breakup.
The area
of summertime
sea -
ice during 2007 - 2009 was about 40 %
less than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.
The area
of summer
sea ice remaining during 2007 - 2009 was about 40 %
less than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
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of the
Sea» Jared Bush * — «Zootopia,» «Moana» Carlos E. Cabral — «Big Hero 6,» «Frozen» Giacun Caduff — «La Femme et le TGV,» «2B or Not 2B» John K. Carr — «How to Train Your Dragon 2,» «Over the Hedge» Jeeyun Sung Chisholm — «
Ice Age: Collision Course,» «The Peanuts Movie» Jericca Cleland — «Ratchet & Clank,» «Arthur Christmas» Andrew Coats — «Smash and Grab,» «Borrowed Time» John Cohen — «The Angry Birds Movie,» «Despicable Me» Lindsey Collins — «Finding Dory,» «WALL - E» Devin Crane — «Megamind,» «Monsters vs Aliens» Ricardo Curtis — «The Book
of Life,» «Dr. Seuss» Horton Hears a Who» Richard Daskas — «Turbo,» «Sinbad: Legend
of the Seven
Seas» Kristof Deák — «Sing,» «Losing It» Jason Deamer — «Piper,» «Monsters University» David DeVan — «Finding Dory,» «Brave» Walt Dohrn — «Trolls,» «Mr. Peabody & Sherman» Rob Dressel — «Moana,» «Big Hero 6» Stefan Eichenberger — «Heimatland (Wonderland),» «Parvaneh» David Eisenmann — «Pearl,» «Toy Story 3» Patrik Eklund — «Seeds
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of the Fall,» «Instead
of Abracadabra» Arish Fyzee — «The Pirate Fairy,» «Planes» Juanjo Giménez — «Timecode,» «Maximum Penalty» Andrew Gordon — «Monsters University,» «Presto» Jinko Gotoh — «The Little Prince,» «9» Eric Guillon — «Sing,» «The Secret Life
of Pets» Lou Hamou - Lhadj — «Borrowed Time,» «Day & Night» John Hill — «Turbo,» «Shrek Forever After» Steven «Shaggy» Hornby — «How to Train Your Dragon 2,» «Rise
of the Guardians» Steven Clay Hunter — «Brave,» «The Incredibles» Alessandro Jacomini — «Big Hero 6,» «Tangled» Christopher Jenkins — «Home,» «Surf's Up» Sean D. Jenkins — «Wreck - It Ralph,» «Bolt» Phil Johnston * — «Zootopia,» «Wreck - ItRalph» Oliver Jones * — «Kubo and the Two Strings,» «ParaNorman» Mohit Kallianpur — «Frozen,» «Tangled» Max Karli — «My Life as a Zucchini,» «Victoria» Michael Kaschalk — «Big Hero 6,» «Paperman» Karsten Kiilerich — «Albert,» «When Life Departs» Timothy Lamb — «Trolls,» «Mr. Peabody & Sherman» Gina Warr Lawes — «Zootopia,» «Kung Fu Panda 2» Sang Jun Lee — «Rio 2,» «Epic» Meg LeFauve — «The Good Dinosaur,» «Inside Out» Jenny Lerew — «Mr. Peabody & Sherman,» «Flushed Away» Brad Lewis — «Storks,» «Ratatouille» Carl Ludwig — «Rio,» «
Ice Age» Andrew Okpeaha MacLean — «Feels Good,» «Sikumi (On the
Ice)» MaryAnn Malcomb — «Free Birds,» «Spirit: Stallion
of the Cimarron» Anders Mastrup — «Albert,» «When Life Departs» Moon Molson — «The Bravest, the Boldest,» «Crazy Beats Strong Every Time» Dave Mullins — «Cars 2,» «Up» Michelle Murdocca — «Hotel Transylvania,» «Open Season» Christopher Murrie * — «Kubo and the Two Strings,» «Coraline» Ramsey Naito — «The Boss Baby,» «The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie» Damon O'Beirne — «Kung Fu Panda 3,» «Rise
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Ice Age: Collision Course,» «
Ice Age: Continental Drift» Christine Panushka — «The Content
of Clouds,» «The Sum
of Them» Pierre Perifel — «Rise
of the Guardians,» «Kung Fu Panda 2» Jeffrey Jon Pidgeon — «Monsters University,» «Up» David Pimentel — «Moana,» «Big Hero 6» Elvira Pinkhas — «
Ice Age: Collision Course,» «Rio 2» Kori Rae — «Monsters University,» «Tokyo Mater» Mahesh Ramasubramanian — «Home,» «Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted» Ferenc Rofusz — «Gravitáció (Gravitation),» «The Fly» Vicki Saulls — «The Peanuts Movie,» «
Ice Age: Continental Drift» Brad Schiff * — «Kubo and the Two Strings,» «The Boxtrolls» William Schwab — «Frozen,» «Wreck - It Ralph» Gina Shay — «Trolls,» «Shrek Forever After» Jeff Snow — «Over the Hedge,» «The Road to El Dorado» Peter Sohn — «The Good Dinosaur,» «Partly Cloudy» Debra Solomon — «My Kingdom,» «Getting Over Him in 8 Songs or
Less» David Soren — «Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie,» «Turbo» Cara Speller — «Pear Cider and Cigarettes,» «Pearl» Peggy Stern — «Chuck Jones: Memories
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of Olli Mäki,» «The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo» Christopher Assells — «John Wick: Chapter 2,» «Spectre» David Bach — «13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers
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of the Furious,» «The Hateful Eight» Mohammad Reza Delpak — «The Salesman,» «A Separation» Yann Delpuech — «The Founder,» «Saving Mr. Banks» José Luis Díaz — «Wild Tales,» «The Secret in Their Eyes» Jesse K - D.
Increased melting
of sea ice did occur in the 1920s and 1930s in the Barents Sea (Ifft, Monthly Weather Review, November, 1922, p. 589) and over the Arctic Basin (Ahlmann, 1949, Rapports et Proces - Verbaux des Revions du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer 125, 9 - 16) but it was much less so than in recent yea
sea ice did occur in the 1920s and 1930s in the Barents
Sea (Ifft, Monthly Weather Review, November, 1922, p. 589) and over the Arctic Basin (Ahlmann, 1949, Rapports et Proces - Verbaux des Revions du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer 125, 9 - 16) but it was much less so than in recent yea
Sea (Ifft, Monthly Weather Review, November, 1922, p. 589) and over the Arctic Basin (Ahlmann, 1949, Rapports et Proces - Verbaux des Revions du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer 125, 9 - 16) but it was much
less so than in recent years.
During the melt season the albedo
of seasonal
ice is
less than multiyear Seasonal
ice absorbs and transmits more sunlight to ocean than multiyear Albedo evolution
of seasonal
sea ice has 7 phases
Its simple, winter was much smaller in extent, mimicking directly the
lesser volume
of Arctic
sea ice.
Sea ice in the Arctic, on which arctic animals hunt, rest, and reproduce, now covers 15 %
less area than it did in 1978; it has thinned to an average
of 1.8 meters, compared to 3.1 meters in the 1950s.
However recently I've found myself wavering on the issue
of how fast we'll see a transition to a virtually
sea ice free state (
less than 1M km ^ 2 off the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the north
of Greenland) and it's because
of the PIOMAS volume results.
All
of this reinforces the idea that the basics remain clear, including that a warming world will have
less ice, and that will lead to higher
seas.
Of course, during winter as the water freezes on the surface, the resulting
sea -
ice is
less dense, so it floats.
These wildfires release soot into the atmosphere, which accelerates the rate
of melting
of glaciers, snow and
ice it lands upon, which can lead to
less reflectivity, meaning more
of the sun's heat is absorbed, leading to more global warming, which leads to even more wildfires, not to mention greater
sea level rise, which is already threatening coastal areas around the world.
My take is that the tug
of war over what's causing today's telegenic heat waves, floods, tempests — and even Arctic
sea -
ice retreats — distracts from the high confidence scientists have in the long - term (but
less sexy) picture: that more CO2 will lead to centuries
of climate and coastal changes with big consequences for a growing human population (for better and worse in the short run, and likely mostly for the worse in the long run).
During the so - called Holocene Climate Optimum, from approximately 8000 to 5000 years ago, when the temperatures were somewhat warmer than today, there was significantly
less sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, probably
less than 50 %
of the summer 2007 coverage, which is absolutely lowest on record.
I've been criticized by some environmentalists in recent years for writing that the long - term picture (more CO2 = warmer world =
less ice = higher
seas and lots
of climatic and ecological changes) is the only aspect
of human - caused global warming that is solidly established, and that efforts to link dramatic weather - related events to the human influence on climate could backfire should nature wiggle the other way for awhile.
Andy, yes it is true that you have been criticized for writing that the only firm impact
of climate change is more CO2 = warmer world =
less ice = higher
seas.
The established icons
of Arctic climate change are the polar bear and, to a
lesser extent, those indigenous communities that are trying to maintain traditional ways in the face
of slushy floes and the relentless erosion
of coasts exposed to waves as
sea ice retreats.
The good news is that even with a reduction to
less than 50 %
of the current amount
of sea ice the
ice will not reach a point
of no return: a level where the
ice no longer can regenerate itself even if the climate was to return to cooler temperatures.
If polar bears have been around for few hundred thousand years they have experienced a variety
of environmental changes in the Arctic, including periods when there was more
sea ice than present as well as periods when seasonal
sea ice was considerably
less than at present.
The Healy, a younger, larger, but
less sturdy
ice - breaking ship, just headed out on a surveying cruise charting new stretches
of the Chukchi Cap, an extension
of the continental slope off Alaska that could — if the Senate ever approves the Law
of the
Sea Treaty — add a big swath
of Arctic Ocean seabed as a potential economic resource.
The denialist cut - paste attempts to — via logical fallacy, hand - waving and dissembling — make it appear that... that... well, who knows but it isn't germane nor does it refute eroding coastlines due to
less ice, nor does the denialist cut - paste refute the facts
of melting permafrost, CH4 release, warmer Arctic temps, birds moving north into the Arctic, increased freshwater flow into the northern
seas, and numerous other indicators.
So here we are, still facing a clear long - term picture (more CO2 = warming world =
less ice + higher
seas + lots
of changing climate patterns), but sufficient murk in the short run to fuel the «green noise» and «destructive interference» in climate discourse.
[Andy Revkin — On Arctic
ice trends, I have a post coming shortly on the latest update from the world's leading teams
of sea ice experts, showing this year's retreat is unlikely to match last year's, while the long - term trend is still heading toward ever
less summer
ice.
This is far from a settled story, but most
of the scientists I know now have the feeling that in a high CO2 world with
less sea ice, the chill from a THC shutdown would be a lot
less.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «For the Bering
Sea, median March
ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent
less than the 1979 — 1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent
less by the end
of the century» But if Bering
ice is driven by the PDO I suspect that prediction will fail.
o 8000
of the 10000 years since the last
ice age were warmer than now and generally had
less CO2 and lower
sea levels o For 3000 years (from 5000 BP to 2000 BP) world temperatures were falling whilst CO2 levels were rising o Manâ??
A scenario with this rate
of ice reduction suggests that the Arctic
Sea will be completely
ice - free in summer time in
less than two decades.