Sentences with phrase «of loaded dice»

Perhaps I'm biased because I'm a physicist not a statistician, but to me it is clear that physical evidence, like our physical understanding of how CO2 affects SST and how SST affects hurricanes, gives you warning of the loaded dice long before you can prove it from the damage statistics.

The sequence of rolls of loaded dice is random, even if you lose twice as often as expected.

It seems that the individual that wrote this paper was: «Of loaded dice and heated arguments: Putting the Hansen — Michaels global warming debate in context» social epistemology, 2000, vol.

It is very helpful, especially the analogy of loading the dice.

Not exact matches

In this world, where the game is played with loaded dice, a man must have a temper of iron, with armor proof to the blows of fate, and weapons to make his way against men.

(2) Historically it conjures up exactly the wrong ideas — or at the very least loads the dice against an impartial examination of Aristotle's real meaning.

It's made with loads of diced Yukon gold potatoes, plus sweet potatoes, onions, and beets, and almost glows with exquisite color and rich satisfying flavor.

Loaded with fresh baby greens and arugula, the salad features generous servings of diced red and golden beets, crumbles of tangy goat cheese and lots of buttery, toasted pistachios.

With this Loaded Potato and Chicken Casserole recipe, it has a touch of spicy kick from the hot sauce, but this definitely will appeal to chileheads because I've added diced jalapeno chiles to the recipe.

With the additioan of some sauteed red peppers and onions, Italian - style diced tomatoes and chopped pepperoncini, this queso dip was loaded with flavor!

«I think Harley Barker loads the dice far more in favour of Trebell than against him, but he mitigates that by making some of his aspiration naïve, perhaps,» Michell says.

Otto said: «Past greenhouse gas emission and other forms of pollution have loaded the weather dice», adding that she and others were still working on investigating the implications of the results, for river flows, flooding and ultimately the threat to property and lives.

According to Dr. Kevin Trenberth at NCAR in Boulder, Colo., an increase in water vapor floating overhead, triggered by warming of the atmosphere and oceans, is already loading the dice.

Strawberry Baked Oatmeal Cups are loaded with chewy oats, crunchy almonds, sweet coconut, & fresh diced strawberries for a wholesome, perfectly - portioned breakfast ideal for making ahead of time and reheating in the morning!

Despite the loaded dice, Love Orchard is an entertaining and well made picture, with the added attraction of Bruce Dern.

Unlike the real game of craps where the odds of rolling a seven are statistically predictable ahead of time (one in six rolls of two dice), Amazon's dice are loaded.

EA and DICE have been listening to fans and made loads of changes to make just about everyone happy.

There's no arguing, either, that it's an awful lot of fun to switch off your brain and run around a map dicing up a load of enemies.

«The climate dice are now loaded to a degree that a perceptive person old enough to remember the climate of 1951 — 1980 should recognize the existence of climate change, especially in summer.»

Seems to me that if there's a high degree of certainty about loaded rolls of the Wx dice into the future, you can't dismiss out of hand, as he has, that said loaded rolls of the dice have been at least a qualitative factor in prior Wx extremes since the AGW signal appeared.

Pielke, Jr. has already created his «bullshit» button for anyone saying the report be used to attribute the costs of losses (to date) from loaded rolls of the weather dice thanks to climate change.

Fact is, at this point no weather is uninfluenced but no single event is «evidence» in a court of law sense; you can't isolate it but when a whole season is out of whack we're human and note it confirms the loaded dice impression.

We don't know enough to quantify collapse scenarios accurately, but modern society is «loading the dice» towards the collapse of civilisation.

In 1988, James E. Hansen, the NASA climate scientist who, through much of his career, has pressed elected officials to limit greenhouse gas emissions, constructed «loaded» cardboard dice for a Senate hearing, to illustrate that we were, in essence, tipping the climate system toward ever higher odds of unpleasant events like droughts and flooding rains.

The «loaded dice» /» return time» /» frequency of extremes» metrics being used by Hansen, Pall, Rahmstorf & Coumou, Allen etc. are going to be much more useful for anyone who cares about what effects these extremes are having.

He used the example you picture here (the dice), saying essentially that anthropogenic forcing could be thought of as loading the climate dice towards undesirable outcomes.

The probability distributions published by Hansen are a logical extention of his «loaded dice» analogy.

Re-read what Jim Hansen of NASA has long said about how the building greenhouse effect was loading the climate dice.

It would be foolish to just play on until the loading of the dice finally becomes evident even in highly noisy statistics.

This is how I understand it (correct me if I am wrong): It's like with increasing GHGs in the atmosphere the dice are increasing loaded for such record - breaking events, but under the null hypothesis (that increasing GHGs have no effect) there is this very long long tail of possibility.

Back in 1988, this was a core message of James Hansen of NASA, who compared the impact of global warming on year - to - year conditions to the progressive loading of a pair of climate «dice» toward hot outcomes.

No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events.

John M. Wallace, a longtime climate scientist at the University of Washington (see my recent post on the loaded climate «dice» for more), wrote:

You may well be right that many of the results we're seeing are because the dice are currently loaded against the science, but in my opinion, that kind of conclusion is simply not scientific.

«Climate dice,» describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively «loaded» in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming.

For many years, one of the most popular metaphors for describing how global warming will influence patterns of extreme weather events has been a progressive loading of dice.

August 19, 8:17 p.m. Updated Make sure to check the loaded climate dice cartoon created by Marc Roberts, my favorite climate blogtoonist (of course, he's probably the only such artist).

Specifically «While natural chaotic variability remains a component of mid-latitude atmospheric variability, recent loss of Arctic sea ice, with its signature on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, may load the dice in favor of snowier conditions in large parts of northern mid-latitudes.»

Again, some of these words are not mine such as «load the dice».

Loaded dice: The perfect analogy for deciding whether our weirdly warm winter was the result of climate change or luck.

[7] Kevin D. Dayaratna and David W. Kreutzer, «Unfounded FUND: Yet Another EPA Model Not Ready for the Big Game,» Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2897, April 29, 2014, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/04/unfounded-fund-yet-another-epa-model-not-ready-for-the-big-game; Kevin D. Dayaratna and David W. Kreutzer, «Loaded DICE: An EPA Model Not Ready for the Big Game,» Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2860, November 21, 2013, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/11/loaded-dice-an-epa-model-not-ready-for-the-big-game; and U.S. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, «Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866,» The White House, July 2015, p. 18, https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/scc-tsd-final-july-2015.pdf (accessed March 25, 2016).

It is equivalent to the loading of dice, leading to one side being heavier, so that a certain outcome becomes more likely.

He said: «Whether or not a flood occurs in any given year is still an act of God but with the help of thousands of volunteers we are beginning to see how human influence on climate may be starting to load God's dice.»

However Flannery et al claim we have now loaded the dice which in gaming parlance means that you weight the dice in a particular way so as to change the chance of probability and skew the results by artificially creating an imbalance in the die itself causing the same number to be rolled over and over again.

He interviews our good friend Gavin Schmidt, and explains how rising greenhouse gases are «loading the climate dice» — changing the relative odds of different extremes, rather than eliminating all cold days entirely.

Heavy snowstorms are not inconsistent with a warming planet... In fact, as the Earth gets warmer and more moisture gets absorbed into the atmosphere, we are steadily loading the dice in favor of more extreme storms in all seasons, capable of causing greater impacts on society... If the climate continues to warm, we should expect an increase in heavy snow events for a few decades, until the climate grows so warm that we pass the point where it's too warm for it to snow heavily.

Part of the thinking here is simply that certain aspects of the storm (lowest barometric pressure for a winter cyclone in the Northeast) and its consequences (worst flooding of the New York City subway system) are «unprecedented,» so what more proof do we need that our fuelish ways have dangerously loaded the climate dice to produce ever more terrible extremes?

That climate change would load the dice in favour of more intense disasters is well established.

So far we've only increased the temperature of the planet about a degree, and that's been enough to set the Arctic to melting, turn the ocean 30 % more acidic and make the atmosphere about 4 % wetter, loading the dice for floods.

It is, however, «loading the dice» by increasing the amount of energy in the atmosphere, making events that would occur naturally all the more powerful and violent.