Sentences with phrase «of marginal seat»

I have my doubts about the reliability of marginal seat polls since the average number of voters polled per constituency is only about 10.

Lord Ashcroft put another batch of marginal seat polls out earlier on today.

But in post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat is rather obsolete.

Not only can the state of play in the marginals look rather different from the national polls, different kinds of marginal seat can look rather different from each other.

The second issue was the decision of John Howard to take over the Mersey Hospital in Latrobe, then located at the eastern end of the marginal seat of Braddon.

Loss of his marginal seat in 1945, followed a few months later by his re-election for the safe seat of Bromley, was the base for his successful ministerial career after 1951 - housing, the Foreign Office and the Treasury.

@Don: cut defence spending or Trident and lose a bunch of marginal seats — most of the $ on Trident goes to the US, so you could always announce conventional weapons programmes providing the same jobs in whichever docks would lose out.

cut defence spending or Trident and lose a bunch of marginal seats.

One recent poll of marginal seats found 74 % of Labour voters and 75 % of Ukip voters backed their local service being bought by the state.

The 1992 election saw the pinnacle of Conservatives Abroad's history, with the expat vote recognised as helping the party win a number of marginal seats.

A little - reported result of the 2015 general election was a substantial reduction in the number of marginal seats, and a consequent increase in the number of very safe ones for both the Conservatives and Labour.

I don't have a table for how they break down in terms of marginal seats.

The ALP's re-election chances hinge on the results in a number of marginal seats across Australia.

The first was detailed information about every potential Conservative voter in each of the marginal seats.

In many of the marginal seats that Conservatives have to win to gain an overall majority in 2015, trade union members could hold the balance of power.

In many ways, the same ingredients and electoral logic exist to make 2015 as compelling a contest in FST as 2010 — and there is every chance that the constituency will top the UK league table of marginal seats once again.

At the weekend they upped the ante with Alan Partridge's alter ego not only starring in an ad, but also hitting the campaign trail in a number of marginal seats with Labour MP Tom Watson.

The polling by Lord Ashcroft found that despite the dreadful national figures, the party is actually running level with the Conservatives in most of the marginal seats that David Cameron needs to win a majority next year.

Note that this wasn't what we've often called a «marginal poll» in the past (a single poll of a group of marginal seats), it was 14 separate polls, one in each seat, individually sampled and weighted.

Finally ComRes have released the second of their regular polls of marginal seats.

On Saturday night we noted the huge PoliticsHome survey of marginal seats and its projection of a 146 Tory majority.

ComRes have a poll of marginal seats out tonight covering the forty most marginal seats with Labour and Conservative in first and second place (so 25 with Tory incumbents, 15 with Labour incumbents).

Lord Ashcorft has published some new polling of marginal seats, full details here.

Fair enough if you include other seats in the West Midlands - but then of course the same can be said about Lancashire where there's a whole swathe of marginal seats.

We've seen an increase in marginal polls and, more importantly, we've seen an increase in regular marginal polls — Lord Ashcroft and ComRes are both doing regular polls of the same groups or group of marginal seats.

If they behave differently to the national polls, and if different groups of marginal seats behave differently to one another, it's obviously a very big deal.

About nine police forces have been investigating the accusations of higher - than - permitted spending in a number of marginal seats, which could have helped the Tories gain a majority at the election.

All the evidence I'm aware of (polling of marginal seats, local election results, membership figures etc.) points to FPTP helping us to do better in the seats that matter, not worse.

Curiously they did not express the same view in their press release highlighting my survey of marginal seats in March, which showed a number of potential SNP gains from the Lib Dems, or when they welcomed my «super poll» at the end of last year which gave the SNP a 6 - point lead over Labour.

«Campaign teams will be sent to work relentlessly in a range of marginal seats which Tories now feel are within their grasp.»

Over the course of the last month, the voluntary party's tour of marginal seats has clocked up campaign visits to no fewer than 72 constituencies across England, from St Ives in the South West to Tynemouth in the North East.

Certainly, the recent poll of marginal seats by Lord Ashcroft gave no grounds for believing that the Party is making progress in them.

The Liberal Party appears to have engaged in «sandbagging», concentrating its campaign on keeping the rising Labor electoral flood out of its marginal seats of Boothby and Sturt.

The giant PoliticsHome poll of marginal seats last year also suggested that London was one of the Conservatives weaker areas.

Unlike Lord Ashcroft's marginal polls (which are actually a series of individual constituency polls in seats that are marginals, which we can aggregate together to get an extremely large sample across a group of marginal seats) ComRes's poll is a more traditional marginals poll — a single poll of a group of marginal seats, meaning it gives us a measure of those seats as a whole, but has far too few people to tell us anything about the individual seats within that group.

In the marginal seats, the poll used the same trick I did back in the PoliticsHome polling of marginal seats from 2008.

This is something that was first used in the big PoliticsHome polls of marginal seats back before the last election — it makes hardly any difference when you ask people in most seats, but makes the world of difference when you ask people living in seats where the Lib Dems are in contention, presumably picking up tactical voting considerations.

The prime minister is certainly demonstrating he has the energy to carry on with a round of regional and national TV radio appearances today and a tour of marginal seats in northern England and Scotland.

We have polls of marginal seats, but what about safe conservative seats where UKIP might do well?

Evidence from John Curtice at Strathclyde University shows that the decline in the number of marginal seats and the reduced share of the vote for the two main parties means coalition government is now much more likely in the future.

AV would increase the number of marginal seats — a good thing.

The number of marginal seats is shrinking, from more than 150 before 1974 to 85 in 2010.

Their analysis of marginal seats presented here is based on a paper about to appear online in the journal British Politics.

A major feature — not always recognised by commentators — of the 2015 election was a substantial reduction in the number of marginal seats, largely as a consequence of the collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats.

Combine this with falling membership of parties and an increasingly volatile party funding base, and it suggests that targeting of marginal seats will become even more prolific in the future.

One senior Tory said the party faces a «devastating pincer movement» from Ukip in a string of marginal seats where Conservatives won in 2010 with narrow majorities over Labour: «If more Tory votes are siphoned off to Ukip, and Lib Dems switch to Labour, we will be done for in those seats and our position in the north of England will be terrible.

The final outcome of the 2015 general election will be shaped by the results in dozens of marginal seats, where relatively modest shifts in voting patterns will be enough to change the result.

Labour had been ahead in the polls for 47 of the last 48 months, with the Conservatives below 33 % since 2012, and analyses of marginal seats were encouraging.

Today's survey of marginal seats reveals the sort of data usually only seen by campaign strategists deep inside party headquarters.

The 2007 election raised the number of marginal seats to 10, with Chaguanas East, Lopinot / Bon Air West, Princes Town South / Tableland (renamed Moruga / Tableland for the 2010 election), Pointe - à - Pierre and Tobago East ending up among the marginals.