The Writing Team's choice
of the marker scenarios «was based on extensive discussion» that included «preference of some modelling teams».
Harmonized: harmonized scenarios within a family share common assumptions for global population and GDP while fully harmonized scenarios are within 5 % of the population projections specified for the respective marker scenario, within 10 % of the GDP and within 10 %
of the marker scenario's final energy consumption.
Not exact matches
Instead
of stemming the tide
of HTAFC chances, the home side couldn't get to grips with the set - piece
scenarios; Mathias Zanka the next man to beat his
marker and head towards goal, but this time the central defender had to watch his effort whistle agonisingly wide
of the target.
As the person acts out different
scenarios — walking down the street, taking part in an angry mob, running into a wall — a bank
of high - res cameras records the position
of the
markers (the red circles in the diagram), a technique called motion capture.
In our studies, we applied six independent
scenarios to the assessment
of potential causes or
markers of CCD and got the same answer, giving us confidence in the results, since this inference approach is approximately analogous to applying the same technique to six different assessments [53].
Nissan noted a long list
of scenarios where ProPilot Assist won't work, including faded lane
markers, sharp curves, the tail end
of traffic jams, and direct sunlight.
Remember though that there is a wide range
of scenarios, and whether the C&H criticisms actually lead to a substantially different set
of «
marker»
scenarios (the ones the modellers actually use) is unknown at this point.
RCP4.5 and the CCSP
Marker Scenario both fall in the lower part
of this price range.
Then, emissions from the
marker scenarios for six regions (OECD90, REF, Centrally Planned Asia, Rest
of Asia, Latin America, and Africa / Middle East, scaled to match the standardized emissions) were used for gridding purposes.
They have declared six
of these
scenarios to be «
marker scenarios» that collectively provide a representative spread
of realistic possibilities.
None
of these are assumed in any IPCC
marker scenario.
The big problem with this argument,
of course, is that the IPCC has already developed probability distributions for potential warming that include no measurable probability for warming anywhere near this level for any
marker scenario.
The spread
of IPCC projections for sea level rise through about 2100 across all six
marker scenarios ranges from a low
of 0.18 meters to a high
of 0.59 meters.
However, the relative cooling effect
of sulphate aerosols is dominated by the effects
of increasing greenhouse gases by the end
of the 21st century in the SRES
marker scenarios (Figure 10.26), leading to the increased monsoon precipitation at the end
of the 21st century in these
scenarios (see Section 10.3.2.3).
For example, under the B2 storyline, the change in the global area
of grassland between 1990 and 2050 varies between -49 and +628 million ha (Mha), with the
marker scenario giving a change
of +167 Mha (Naki» cenovi» c et al., 2000).
Results from both sets
of scenarios are discussed here since the preliminary
marker scenarios (December 1998) were used in this report:
The Chapter says, «the
markers are not necessarily the median or mean
of the
scenario family, but are those
scenarios considered by the SRES writing team as illustrative
of a particular storyline».
In accordance with a decision
of the IPCC Bureau in 1998 to release draft
scenarios to climate modelers for their input in the Third Assessment Report, and subsequently to solicit comments during the open process, one
marker scenario was chosen from each
of four
of the
scenario groups based on the storylines.
Marker scenarios are no more or less likely than any other
scenarios, but are considered by the SRES writing team as illustrative
of a particular storyline.
9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections
of future climate from forcing
scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3
Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns
of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range
of Temperature Response to SRES Emission
Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature
of stabilisation
of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role
of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales
of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes
of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes
of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions
One
of the harmonized
scenarios, originally posted on the open - process web site, is called a «
marker scenario.»
These six groups all have «illustrative
scenarios,» four
of which are
marker scenarios.
For example, the comparison
of the A1B and B2
marker scenarios indicates that they have similar emissions
of about 13.5 and 13.7 GtC by 2100, respectively.