Take the multi-model mean of the rest
of models and the observations.
The rank histogram analysis discussed in Sect. 2.2 only considers the rank ordering
of models and observations, and thus information on the distances between observation and ensemble members is missing.
The IPCC Second Draft had cited four articles supposedly supporting the consistency
of models and observations, three of which were also cited in the Government Draft (Mitchell et al 2012b GRL does not exist at GRL nor can an article by its title be located):
QUOTE: He has a weak discussion on the divergence
of models and observations.
He has a weak discussion on the divergence
of models and observations.
As I showed in my Hub, when you consider that metric, the agreement
of models and observations is quite reasonable.
A more comprehensive comparison
of models and observations is shown in Figure 2 of the Santer et al paper, reproduced below.
In contrast to this observational approach, Schmittner (as well as a number of other papers, like reference # 4 in this post) take advantage
of both models and observations, and try to use the observations to constrain which feedback parameters in the model are consistent (e.g., an overly sensitive model with the same forcings as another model will produce too big of a temperature change than observations allow).
The same goes for Judith Curry's long exploration of the mix
of modeling and observations leading to the range of possible warming projections from a doubling of pre-industry carbon dioxide concentrations.
An alternative method would be to set the average values of a short period of time
of model and observations to the same value.
Not exact matches
This
observation is based on our analysis
of each
of the fund's holdings for which we
model the earnings quality
and the future cash flow expectations embedded in the prices
of each
of the holdings.
On the other hand, induction allows us to calculate probabilities from past
observations where theoretical
models are unavailable, possibly because
of a lack
of knowledge about the underlying relation between cause
and effect.
Instead we will adopt a view that we will call
model - dependent realism: the idea that a physical theory or world picture is a
model (generally
of a mathematical nature)
and a set
of rules that connect the elements
of the
model to
observations.
Science quantifies, classifies
and models our
observations of reality.
That said, the case has been made that if the Christian god exists, then «God should be detectable by scientific means simply by virtue
of the fact that he is supposed to play such a central role in the operation
of the universe
and the lives
of humans», with the conclusion that» [e] xisting scientific
models contain no place where God is included as an ingredient in order to describe
observations.»
Other indications
of evolution are too numerous to actually list in full, but a few might be the clear genetic distinction between Neanderthals
and modern man; the overlapping features
of hominid
and pre-hominid fossil forms; the progressive order
of the fossil record (that is, first fish, then amphibians, then reptiles, then mammals, then birds; contradicting the Genesis order
and all flood
models); the phylogenetic relationships between extant
and extinct species (including distributions
of parasitic genetic elements like Endogenous Retroviruses); the real time
observations of speciation in the lab
and in the wild; the real time
observations of novel functionality in the lab
and wild (both genetic, Lenski's E. coli,
and organsimal, the Pod Mrcaru lizards); the
observation of convergent evolution defeating arguments
of common component creationism (new world v. old world vultures for instance);
and... well... I guess you get the picture.
The theoretical terms
of the calculus obtain their meaning indirectly from the
observation terms
and not from the
model.
Some, such as the «double - helix»
model of the DNA molecule, are closer to
observations and can be taken more literally.
A theoretical
model, then, is an imagined mechanism or process, postulated by analogy with familiar mechanisms or processes
and used to construct a theory to correlate a set
of observations.
This dataset contains millions
of genomic sequences from a diverse set
of rice varieties that, when combined with phenotyping
observations, gene expression,
and other information, provides an important step in establishing gene - trait associations, building predictive
models,
and applying these
models to breeding.
Six
models showed favourable effects on primary outcome measures (e.g., standardized measures
of child development outcomes
and reduction in behaviour problems).13 Only studies with outcomes using direct
observation, direct assessment, or administrative records were included.
The programs that were identified as having promise for implementation were kangaroo care, infant message, guided
observation of child behaviour with
modelling and parent - child interaction time along with parent group discussion / support.
Covering the period since 1950, the researchers show how the science has leaped ahead thanks to computerisation, mathematical
modelling and new technologies
of observation.
Working together, they will develop
and test a variety
of learning experiences in which students use online simulations to
model energy - releasing
and energy - requiring reactions, analyze
and interpret data to make predictions about energy phenomena,
and use evidence from their own
observations or from simplified versions
of scientific articles to explain phenomena
and construct
and critique arguments.
By validating
model results against geological
observations, the study indicates that changes in runoff, sea level
and wave energy have profoundly affected the past evolution
of the Great Barrier Reef not only in regard to reefs evolution but also sediment fate from source - to - sink.
They tested high - performance computational
models against known geological
and geophysical
observations of the Central Anatolian Plateau,
and demonstrated that a drip
of lithospheric material below the surface can account for the measured elevation changes across the region.
One near - term step researchers could take, it says, «is defining the scale
and scope
of observations and modeling capabilities necessary to detect the signal
of any future field experiments»
of geoengineering techniques,
and ways «to evaluate their consequences.
«Using Streptozotocin - induced type I diabetes
and cornea epithelial wounding experimental
models, we made novel
observations that may soon lead to innovative therapies to treat DPN
and ulcerations
of the cornea
and skin in diabetic patients,» said Yu.
Computer
modeling and satellite
observations suggest that these tiny particles can increase storm - cloud cover over certain regions
of the North Pacific by 20 to 50 percent, enough to alter storm tracks in some cases.
Starting from the
observation that the properties
of water seem to appear fine - tuned, a collaboration between Dr John Russo from the University
of Bristol's School
of Mathematics
and Professor Hajime Tanaka from the University
of Tokyo, harnessed the power
of powerful supercomputers, using computational
models to slowly «untune» water's interactions.
Previous research has suggested a connection between coal - burning
and the Sahel drought, but this was the first study that used decades
of historical
observations to find that this drought was part
of a global shift in tropical rainfall,
and then used multiple climate
models to determine why.
Combining
observations from satellites
and ground stations with climate
models, they evaluated different factors that affect telescope vision, such as the amount
of water vapour, wind speeds
and atmospheric turbulence.
They also used a physically based computer
model of the hydrologic cycle, which takes daily weather
observations and computes the snow accumulation, melting,
and runoff to estimate the total snowpack in the western U.S.
Mausumi Dikpati
and her colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., used new
observations of the sun's interior
and new computer simulations to
model the flow
of plasma, or electrically charged gas, that carry the sunspots like a conveyor belt until they become powerful enough to burst free
and erupt on the sun's surface.
The
model matches the
observations of slow - moving nebulae by Romanowsky's team, Dekel says, because telescopes would see most
of the nebulae at the farthest
and slowest points
of their long orbits.
A detailed ozone
model budget analysis was performed with simultaneous
observations of O3, HCl, H2O, CH4, NO,
and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) under conditions with the strongest photochemical control
of ozone.
The meters produce data for the estimation
and development
of calculated flow
models,
and the
observations are also part
of the Gulf
of Finland 2014 research,» points out the tour leader, Riikka Hietala, Head
of Group from the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
Without any detailed
observations of what reionization looked like, many
models of the early universe «just kind
of pick one time
and say, «The universe is reionized now!»
Survey data gathered voluntarily from homeless youth in Los Angeles, as well as behavioral theories
and observations of previous interventions, were used to build a computational
model of the interventions.
The CRaTER
observations have validated the
models and the ground - based measurements, meaning that lightweight shielding materials could safely be used for long missions, provided their structural properties can be made adequate to withstand the rigors
of spaceflight.
Two
of the major projects for this IPY will be the creation
of permanent permafrost
observations and an expansion
of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), a
model experiment that uses easily constructed greenhouses to artificially warm portions
of the tundra.
Nadeau also studies the potential impacts
of climate change on species around the globe, using
modeling, field
observation and experiments to predict where species are most vulnerable
and determine how conservation groups can best mitigate the negative impacts
of climate change on animal populations.
Mission leaders were relieved
and eager to begin their studies
of cloud
and haze effects, which «constitute the largest uncertainties in our
models of future climate — that's no exaggeration,» says Jens Redemann, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California,
and the principal investigator for
ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds
and their IntEractionS (ORACLES).
«There have been some idealized studies using
models,
and even some indirect
observations off the ice shelves, suggesting that El Niño might significantly affect some
of these shelves, but we had no actual ice - shelf
observations.
The authors then
modelled counts
of golden eagle
observations based on land cover
and other environmental factors.
And if enough people send in data, NASA researchers creating models of Earth's energy budget — the balance between the energy our planet receives from the sun and sends back out into space — could also analyze the observatio
And if enough people send in data, NASA researchers creating
models of Earth's energy budget — the balance between the energy our planet receives from the sun
and sends back out into space — could also analyze the observatio
and sends back out into space — could also analyze the
observations.
Bajcsy uses non-invasive
observations of movement
and devises algorithms to
model the features
and properties
of patients» movements, known as kinematics.
Much
of this research builds on the past work
of the team members,
and the
modeling results help put together some
of the
observations that seemed contradictory.
NOAA's Coral Reef Watch uses satellite
observations of sea surface temperatures
and modeling to monitor
and forecast when water temperatures rise enough to cause bleaching.
The most difficult thing here is the construction
of reliable
models based on our current studies
and observations.