Sentences with phrase «of observational»

To better assess confidence in the different model estimates of climate sensitivity, two kinds of observational tests are available: tests related to the global climate response associated with specified external forcings (discussed in Chapters 6, 9 and 10; Box 10.2) and tests focused on the simulation of key feedback processes.

When the bottom - up approach is used to extrapolate the emissions to larger scales, uncertainty results from the inherent large temporal and spatial variations of fluxes and the limited range of observational conditions.

In my (very humble) view, the beauty of the observational approach to calculating the climate sensitivity, as opposed to paleo or GCMs, is that most terms of the equation are solved with values that we can be quite confident about.

The relation between radiative forcing and temperature: What do statistical analyses of the observational record measure?

The predictions of the observational scientists are documented and available for review.

Therefore the complete list of observational constraints toward which a particular model is tuned is generally not available.»

Somebody like the rapper lil kim who doesn't deal with the data makes those kinds of observational errors.

For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.

Provided that rapid losses in sea ice may be predictable, there is additional uncertainty regarding what is required in terms of an observational network and modeling system to predict such events.

A large amount of observational evidence besides the temperature records shows that Earth's climate is changing.

The highest - resolution ice - core CO2 record, Law Dome, the CO2 record (MacFarling - Meure et al., 2006) provides independent validation of the observational record where the two overlap in time.

A serious concern is the decline of observational networks.

... But by placing the null hypothesis in a priviledged position from which it can only be dislodged by a mountain of observational evidence, this approach provides a strong inbuilt bias for the status quo which can not be justified on any rational decision - theoretic grounds.»

Reverse the decline of observational networks in many parts of the world.

The scenario encapsulates so much BS from assumptions, ignorance of observational trends, rational action on big and apparent dangers, and then there is the data sets, the models, the potential for bias, did I mention the assumptions.

To reach their conclusions, the researchers analyzed nearly 30 years of observational temperature and precipitation data and also used computer model simulations that considered soil, atmospheric, and oceanic conditions and projected changes in greenhouse gases.

Such proxy material as tree rings can not be as accurate as instrumental records or detailed reconstructions using a variety of observational material - but there are nevertheless a number of obvious consequences that those who debate climate as either «realists» or «sceptics» need to face when considering this data;

Estimates of natural variability from an AOGCM provide a critical input in deriving, by comparing temperature estimates from the simple model with observations, a likelihood function for the parameters jointly at each possible combination of parameter settings (and in one or two cases AOGCMs provide surrogates for some of the observational data).

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics (AAPG Bulletin, Vol.

Every person that has ever flown in a jet plane knows that air pressure and air temperature decreases with altitude, yet they can't grasp the elegant simplicity of this observational model in explaining the temperature profile from the tropopause to the near surface.

There are also a substantial number of observational climate sensitivity estimates below 1 C, e.g. Lindzen & Choi (2009) at 0.5 C..

Thus, while these principles are constraints that are external to the observational data, they are not external to the system that is comprised of the observational data plus the probabilistic logic.

There are also a substantial number of observational climate sensitivity estimates below 1 C. e.g. Lindzen & Choi (2009) at 0.5 C. See my comment on apparent bimodal distribution of climate sensitivity estimates.

-- Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics: Reply (AAPG Bulletin, v. 90, no. 3, p. 409 - 412, March 2006)-- Lee C. Gerhard

Yes, Joe, Nicholas Lewis has discovered in climate science what I first encountered in space science in 1972 — manipulation of observational data in order to promote a particular point of view.

One reason is the incompleteness of observational data sets upon which such a coupled model could be constructed.

The observed rate of warming given above is less than half of this simulated rate, and only a few simulations provide warming trends within the range of observational uncertainty.

Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones (2012), Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset, J. Geophys.

We could, of course, hit some bifurcation in the system where we lose all the summer Arctic sea ice or the Amazon forest, which is bad enough, and could possibly transition the climate to a different «solution» on a hysteresis diagram... this to me would represent more of a step-wise jump (akin to a larger bifurcation that you get in a snowball Earth as you gradually reduce CO2 or the solar constant); but ultimately these represent different behavior than «the interannual variability of the large scale dynamics will increase» or that for some reason the climate should be susceptible to more «flip flops» (as in the glacial Heinrich / D - O events), of which I am aware of no observational or theoretical support.

A single decade of observational TLT data is therefore inadequate for identifying a slowly evolving anthropogenic warming signal.

The fact that our pf ′ values (even for 30 - year TLT trends) are sensitive to the addition of a single year of observational data indicates the dangers of ignoring the effects of interannual variability on signal estimates, as was done, for example, in Douglass et al. [2007].

«In summary, given the lack of observational robustness of minimum temperatures, the fact that the shallow nocturnal boundary layer does not reflect the heat content of the deeper atmosphere, and problems global models have in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.»

The best proxy records contain far fewer observations than the worst periods of the observational record.

-LSB-...] my reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of observational evidence and understanding of natural internal variability of the climate system, whereas the IPCC's reasoning is weighted heavily in favor of climate model simulations and external forcing of climate change.

In light of this lack of observational constraints, we do not feel confident in relying upon the simple model's simulations long after the time at which temperatures peak.

By these measures, the CESM - LE produces a credible NAO, given the length of the observational record available for assessment.

Based on our assumptions of observational values, we conclude the AR4 model - mean or — best estimate ‖ of the SR (1.38 ± 0.08) is significantly different from the SRs determined by observations as described above.

His research group uses a combination of observational and computational techniques to study the characteristics, dynamics, and forecasting of certain weather phenomena.

To restate just one more time before I conclude that — since you consistently choose to ignore any sort of observational data — you have no right to call yourself any sort of a «scientist», you need to be able to explain, preferably quantitatively, how

Based on extensive evidence, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extend of the observational evidence, that anything other than human activity is the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

The suggested «correction» of sunspot numbers by roughly 30 % goes far beyond the traditional estimates of observational uncertainties of sunspots.

This time round we have had some minor concessions to observational estimates, but a significant proportion of the probability density of the observational studies remains outwith the IPCC's likely range of 1.5 - 4.5 °C.

It would be extremely unlikely for the dearth of observational data.

The strongest support for the upward trend in air - borne particulates derives from the failure of observational data to support our understanding of the CO2 effect.

I think it much preferable to combine evidence from all lines of observational evidence and to use an appropriate uninformative prior than to use a supposedly expert prior.

Please provide the literature citation for this finding, along with a summary of its observational validation.

I agree an observation / model mix is required (e.g. such as with the reanalyses), but the absence of observational validation is what is a fundamental flaw in the use of Type 4 downscaling for multi-decadal impact assessments, as I have explained in detail in my posts.

In one method, a statistical analysis of observational records was performed (using the KNMI Climate Explorer) to compare this summer's heat with summers during the early part of the century, before global warming played a significant role in our climate.

The characterization of past changes is severely limited by the availability of observational data.

«To some extend», because the limited length of the observational record does not allow any estimate of very rare events, which in contrast can be done by a long model integration.