Sentences with phrase «of observational trends»

The scenario encapsulates so much BS from assumptions, ignorance of observational trends, rational action on big and apparent dangers, and then there is the data sets, the models, the potential for bias, did I mention the assumptions.

Not exact matches

This type of observational study can identify a trend among the participants but can not prove cause and effect.

No, that is not correct, both papers seek to determine whether the observational data are consistent with the models, however Douglass et al use a statistical test that actually answers a different question, namely «is there a statistically significant difference between the mean trend of the ensemble and the observed trend».

Internal variability as estimated from observations can't explain sea - ice loss Superposition of a linear trend and internal variability explains sea - ice loss Observational sea - ice record shows no signs of self - acceleration

In fact our real argument turned around is that we reject a model amplification of 1.2 and even 1.0 over land since that is inconsistent with the observational analysis of observed ratios of surface and lower troposphere trends.

Here we analyze a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans - basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centers were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea - level rise.

Projections are aligned in the graph so that they start (in 1990 and 2000, respectively) on the linear trend line of the (adjusted) observational data.

«A one dimensional model of heat conduction is used to show that surface trends are attenuated as a function of depth within conductive media on time scales of decades to centuries, therefore invalidating the above assumption given practical observational constraints.

«despite increased observational uncertainty in the pre-satellite era, the trend in [Arctic sea ice extent] over this longer period [1953 — 2010] is more likely to be representative of the anthropogenically forced component.»

As of this writing, there is observational and modeling evidence that: 1) both annular modes are sensitive to month - to - month and year - to - year variability in the stratospheric flow (see section on Stratosphere / troposphere coupling, below); 2) both annular modes have exhibited long term trends which may reflect the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and / or increased greenhouse gases (see section on Climate Change, below); and 3) the NAM responds to changes in the distribution of sea - ice over the North Atlantic sector.

In a new study, Box and a team of researchers describe the decline in ice sheet reflectivity and the reasons behind it, noting that if current trends continue, the area of ice that melts during the summer season is likely to expand to cover all of Greenland for the first time in the observational record, rather than just the lower elevations at the edges of the continent, as is the case today.

The strongest support for the upward trend in air - borne particulates derives from the failure of observational data to support our understanding of the CO2 effect.

Depending on the observational data set, the GMST trend over 1998 — 2012 is estimated to be around one - third to one - half of the trend over 1951 — 2012 (Section 2.4.3, Table 2.7; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c).

While the statistics of 30 - year (or longer) NAO trends and associated surface climate impacts can not be reliably determined from the short observational record, we have made use of a simple relationship between the statistics of trends of any length and the statistics of the interannual variability, provided the time series is Gaussian (Thompson et al. 2015).

«In summary, given the lack of observational robustness of minimum temperatures, the fact that the shallow nocturnal boundary layer does not reflect the heat content of the deeper atmosphere, and problems global models have in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.»

The fact that our pf ′ values (even for 30 - year TLT trends) are sensitive to the addition of a single year of observational data indicates the dangers of ignoring the effects of interannual variability on signal estimates, as was done, for example, in Douglass et al. [2007].

For the thirty - year period 1979 to 2009 the observational datasets find in the tropical lower troposphere (LT) a warming trend of 0.07 °C to 0.15 °C per decade.

The CMIP3 models show a 1979 — 2010 tropical SST trend of 0.19 °C per decade in the multi-model mean, much larger than the various observational trend estimates ranging from 0.10 °C to 0.14 °C per decade (including the 95 % confidence interval, (Fu et al., 2011)-RRB-.

The observed rate of warming given above is less than half of this simulated rate, and only a few simulations provide warming trends within the range of observational uncertainty.

His most highly cited papers are in observational studies of long term variability and trends in atmospheric water vapor and clouds.

Finally, unlike precipitation, for which long and reliable historical records exist in some parts of the world, records for other aspects of weather are too short to detect trends or contain observational biases that render trends meaningless.

«However, the global mean SST is 0.06 °C warmer after 1980 in ERSST.v4 because of the buoy adjustments (not shown) and there are therefore impacts on the long - term trends compared to applying no adjustment to account for the change in observational platforms.»

The simulations also produce an average increase of 2.0 °C in twenty - first century global temperature, demonstrating that recent observational trends are not sufficient to discount predictions of substantial climate change and its significant and widespread impacts.

The model temperature trend is 560 % of the average of the two observational trends.

Relatively few studies have focused on temperature trends west of the Peninsula due to the comparative remoteness of this area and to the even sparser observational network.

The model temperature trend is 300 % of the average of the three observational trends.

He also presented evidence that much of the discrepancy was due to observational uncertainty, resulting from stratospheric cooling contaminating satellite measurements of tropospheric temperature (a point that's been noted by the NOAA satellite analysis team since at least 2004; see: «Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite - inferred tropospheric temperature trends»).

A low confidence in climate attribution results mainly from lack of monitoring, lack of a clear precipitation response, and inconsistency between the direction of reported trends and trends documented in global observational products over the default period.

The observational and model results broadly support our hypothesis, but suggest that further work is needed to diagnose the causes of the high - latitude circulation trends in models and observations.

The very high significance levels of model — observation discrepancies in LT and MT trends that were obtained in some studies (e.g., Douglass et al., 2008; McKitrick et al., 2010) thus arose to a substantial degree from using the standard error of the model ensemble mean as a measure of uncertainty, instead of the ensemble standard deviation or some other appropriate measure for uncertainty arising from internal climate variability... Nevertheless, almost all model ensemble members show a warming trend in both LT and MT larger than observational estimates (McKitrick et al., 2010; Po - Chedley and Fu, 2012; Santer et al., 2013).

[Page 27] The idea that observational trends should be compared to the extrema of model trends, rather than to the confidence interval around the mean of model trends, is statistically and methodologically incoherent.

Observational and numerical evidence of a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere middle latitude jetstream (a positive trend in the Southern Annular mode) in response to Antarctic ozone depletion (Gillett and Thompson, 2003; Arblaster and Meehl, 2006; Son et al., 2010; Polvani et al., 2011; McLandress et al., 2011; Thompson et al., 2011).

Laurence Hecht writes: This review in the 19 Jun 2015 issue of Science reported solid observational evidence (not proxies and modeling à la Rahmstorf and Mann) of a 10 - year trend of decline in the Atlantic Conveyor.

• These results could arise due to errors common to all models; to significant non-climatic influences remaining within some or all of the observational data sets, leading to biased long - term trend estimates; or a combination of these factors.

In fact urban heat island effect is clearly seen — the ground based observational trend takes into account primarily urban heat island effect and not much of the rural cold island effect [satellite data takes in to account both].

Using data from 2,254 locations that they obtained from the Chinese National Meteorological Information Center, the eight researchers examined trends in both the occurrence of hail days (frequency) and the mean size of hail (intensity) over the period 1980 - 2015»... «Ni et al. conclude that these observational changes «imply a weakened [frequency and] intensity of hailstorms in China in recent decades.»

Efforts under way by climate researchers — including reanalyses of existing tropical cyclone databases (20, 21)-- may mitigate the problems in applying the present observational tropical cyclone databases to trend analyses to answer the important question of how humankind may (or may not) be changing the frequency of extreme tropical cyclones.

As a 4th year geography student I have read into covered observational trends in a fair bit for my course at the University of Bristol.

As I've noted above, Judith doesn't appear to show any like - for - like comparison which suggests inconsistency between the reanalysis and observational data (keeping with the convention of separating the two in these terms despite what I've said above) for recent upper and lower ocean comparative trends.

The State of the UK Climate report is an annual publication which provides an accessible, authoritative and up - to - date assessment of UK climate trends, variations and extremes based on the latest available climate quality observational datasets.

Balmaseda et al. shows a large increase from 1983 - 1992 (between the two volcanoes), whereas most of the observational climatologies show little trend during this period and none show a large trend during this entire period.

However, although this trend appeared in the observational data, it isn't seen in all the reanalyses or regional models, leaving open a possibility that the trend is an artifact of some sort (instrumental changes, urbanization etc.).

They performed a three - pronged analysis, investigating both recent observational data and long - term CMIP5 projections of drying trends over the midlatitudes of the northern continents in summertime.

While this trend is not evident in observational data to date, our research highlights the immediate importance of understanding how climate variability and disturbance affects savanna dynamics if landscapes in this region are to be used as enhanced carbon sinks in emission offset schemes.