Several people have linked to the NASA site Correcting Ocean Cooling [1], which details the «pencil - whipping»
of ocean heat data which eliminated the «deep sea cooling» of 2003 - 2005.
Using the last 30y
of ocean heat data and simply adopting the official IPCC forcing values rather than his modified versions» I agree that would have been a useful addition to my work.
Not exact matches
The scientists, led by Eric Oliver
of Dalhousie University in Canada, investigated long - term
heat wave trends using a combination
of satellite
data collected since the 1980s and direct
ocean temperature measurements collected throughout the 21st century to construct a nearly 100 - year record
of marine
heat wave frequency and duration around the world.
Figure 3 is the comparison
of the upper level (top 700m)
ocean heat content (OHC) changes in the models compared to the latest
data from NODC and PMEL (Lyman et al (2010), doi).
Rather than use a model - based estimate, as did Hansen (2005) and Trenberth (2009), the authors achieve this by calculating it from observations
of ocean heat content (down to 1800 metres) from the PMEL / JPL / JIMAR
data sets over the period July 2005 to June 2010 - a time period dominated by the superior ARGO - based system.
However, the large - scale nature
of heat content variability, the similarity
of the Levitus et al. (2005a) and the Ishii et al. (2006) analyses and new results showing a decrease in the global
heat content in a period with much better
data coverage (Lyman et al., 2006), gives confidence that there is substantial inter-decadal variability in global
ocean heat content.
To calculate the Earth's total
heat content, the authors used
data of ocean heat content from the upper 700 metres.
Another figure worth updating is the comparison
of the
ocean heat content (OHC) changes in the models compared to the latest
data from NODC.
We present new estimates
of the variability
of ocean heat content based on: a) additional
data that extends the record to more recent years; b) additional historical
data for earlier years.
A total
of 2.3 million salinity profiles were used in this analysis, about one - third
of the amount
of data used in the
ocean heat content estimates in Section 5.2.2.
ECCO model -
data syntheses are being used to quantify the
ocean's role in the global carbon cycle, to understand the recent evolution
of the polar
oceans, to monitor time - evolving
heat, water, and chemical exchanges within and between different components
of the Earth system, and for many other science applications.
The Web GIS tutorial video and the teacher guide also models
data exploration and analysis techniques for using the elevation - profile tool to discover that
ocean bathymetry is related to both surface
heat flow and the age
of the
ocean floor.
And since we don't have good
ocean heat content
data, nor any satellite observations, or any measurements
of stratospheric temperatures to help distinguish potential errors in the forcing from internal variability, it is inevitable that there will be more uncertainty in the attribution for that period than for more recently.
Data collected by a network
of free - floating sensors, known as ARGO floats, show that from January 2006 to December 2013, a lot more
heat has been finding its way to the deep
ocean instead.
More than 95 %
of the 5 yr running mean
of the surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration
of the sunspot
data (as a proxy for
ocean heat content), departing from the average value over the period
of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition
of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
Alternatively, more direct observations
of that radiative imbalance would be nice, or better theoretical and observational understanding
of the water vapor and cloud feedbacks, or more paleoclimate
data which can give us constraints on historical feedbacks, but my guess is that
ocean heat content measurements would be the best near term bet for improving our understanding
of this issue.
Remember too that
ocean heat content increases were a predicted consequence
of GHG - driven warming well before the
ocean data was clear enough to demonstrate it.
Now anyone can see from the
data that the
ocean heat capacity (OHC) has been accumulating energy at a rate on the order
of 0.5 to 1 W / m ^ 2.
«The rate
of ocean heat gain during the past eight years is not unusual — indeed many studies
of ocean data over the past 50 years and longer have produced similar rates.
The next figure is the comparison
of the
ocean heat content (OHC) changes in the models compared to the latest
data from NODC.
... a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades — unprecedented in observations / reanalysis
data and not captured by climate models — is sufficient to account for the cooling
of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface
ocean heat uptake.
A similar question has in a way been posed in NPR's Richard Harris report that Kevin Ternberth
of NCAR speculated that extra
ocean heat may have radiated back into space (re: Argo
data).
The objective
of our study was to quantify the consistency
of near - global and regional integrals
of ocean heat content and steric sea level (from in situ temperature and salinity
data), total sea level (from satellite altimeter
data) and
ocean mass (from satellite gravimetry
data) from an Argo perspective.
Abstract:... Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades — unprecedented in observations / reanalysis
data and not captured by climate models — is sufficient to account for the cooling
of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface
ocean heat uptake.
There have been many explanations put borth inlcluding deep
ocean heating, ozone chemistry, volcanoes reducing incident energy, trade winds and,
of course, Cowtan and Way along with this latest
data set that shows the energy imbalance is still tracking CO2.
Trenberth et al. suggest that even the choice
of a different
data set
of ocean heat content would have increased the climate sensitivity estimate
of Otto et al. by 0.5 degrees.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison
of sea - surface temperatures and upper
ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount
of cooling is observed at the surface, although much less than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no actual
data analysis
of the SST trend is reported.
Sorry, I was comparing
heat content (not SST, neither SAT)
of different parts
of the
oceans down to 300 m depth (where most
of the variation is visible), based on the
data of Levitus e.a. which can be downloaded from the NOAA web site.
----- On a matter unrelated to the late Sir Arthur: @Thapa (# 5), see NASA's current issue
of The Earth Observer (page 16): «These findings were enough to convince the scientists who initially reported the
ocean cooling [Willis et al. (2007)-RSB- to go back and closely reexamine the recent
ocean heat storage
data they had collected.
There's important work to be done on this question but — as the oceanographer Carl Wunsch notes at the end
of this post — the paucity
of data on
ocean heat makes it tough to get beyond «maybe» answers.
In situ and reanalyzed
data are used to trace the pathways
of ocean heat uptake.
Data from 3,000 scientific robots in the world's
oceans show there has been slight cooling in the past five years, never mind that «80 % to 90 %
of global warming involves
heating up
ocean waters,» according to a report by NPR's Richard Harris.
This makes perfect sense since there is little to no evidence
of an anthropogenic global warming effect on global
Ocean Heat Content (OHC)
data.
Which implies that since the late» 40's - early» 50's we have had a
data collection system deployed capable
of measuring and tracking the annual TEMPERATURE
of the top 2000 meters
of the
oceans of the world (necessary to calculate its
heat content)-- all
of them — with a precision and accuracy in the millidegree range.
Unfortunately we do not have any reliable and comprehensive measurements
of upper
ocean temperature and
heat content prior to 2003, when ARGO measurements replaced the old expendable and spotty XBT
data.
The RF time series are linked to the observations
of ocean heat content and temperature change through an energy balance model and a stochastic model, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS from the
data.
We asked you to support your claim that the resolution
of the oceanic temperature
data is not sufficient to make a determination
of a trend in
ocean heat content, which you have yet to provide.
You made a specific claim, that the resolution
of the
data is not sufficient to make a determination
of a trend in
ocean heat content.
This is at least ten additional years compared to the majority
of previously published studies that have used the instrumental record in attempts to constrain the ECS.We show that the additional 10 years
of data, and especially 10 years
of additional
ocean heat content
data, have significantly narrowed the probability density function
of the ECS.
I don't know about all
of you, but I do find that the uncertainty around e.g. the various issues related to
ocean heat content or issues regarding connecting the Argo float network to other
data networks is SO much better covered in Judith's bizarre and uniquely repetitive mischaracterizations
of other scientists» comments, than by the published science and its critical review.
Then there appears to be some difference in the rate
of ocean heat lost and the rate
of ocean heat uptake but absolutely no way
of determining either because
of limits
of data.
Of the heat accumulating in the upper 1,800 meters of oceans for 2004 — 2011, 46 percent was sequestered in the deep oceans (below 700 meters) in the Lyman & Johnson data se
Of the
heat accumulating in the upper 1,800 meters
of oceans for 2004 — 2011, 46 percent was sequestered in the deep oceans (below 700 meters) in the Lyman & Johnson data se
of oceans for 2004 — 2011, 46 percent was sequestered in the deep
oceans (below 700 meters) in the Lyman & Johnson
data set.
For example, as discussed in Nuccitelli et al. (2012), the
ocean heat content
data set compiled by a National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of ocean heat absorption has occurred in the deeper ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (20
data set compiled by a National Oceanographic
Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of ocean heat absorption has occurred in the deeper ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (20
Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent
of ocean heat absorption has occurred in the deeper
ocean layers, consistent with the results
of Balmaseda et al. (2013).
Temperatures measured by the ARGO floats and the XBTs before them are rising in the raw
data, and the
ocean heat content (OHC) is simply observed temperature change scaled by the thermal mass
of the
ocean layer in question - not some kind
of complex model.
The «puzzling» facts triggered the predictable alarmist tactic
of attacking the
data and claiming the
heat was hiding in the really deep
ocean.
When the first studies
of the XBT
data were produced in then early 2000's, showing just how much
heat had been added to the
oceans, the climate science community labelled this «The Smoking Gun».
Comparisons
of direct measurements with satellite
data and climate models suggest that the
oceans of the southern hemisphere have been sucking up more than twice as much
of the
heat trapped by our excess greenhouse gases than previously calculated.
In contrast, closure
of the global
ocean mean net surface
heat flux budget to within 20 W m — 2 from observation based surface flux
data sets has still not been reliably achieved (e.g., Trenberth et al., 2009).
DK12 used
ocean heat content (OHC)
data for the upper 700 meters
of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate
of OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe
of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods
of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC
data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount
of global warming in response to a doubling
of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
There also was a discussion (p 11)
of the uncertainty
of ocean heat flux
data being 10 - 20 % (or 20 W / m2) versus the change in global
heat flux due to AGW since 1900 being less that 2 W / m2 (a factor
of 10 less).