By far most of the heat goes into the ocean and as James Hansen has suggested, «In my opinion, the rate
of ocean heat storage is the most fundamental number for our understanding of long - term climate change.»
«The interannual variability of the net flux anomalies in Fig. 7 from the ERBS Nonscanner WFOV and CERES Scanner agree very well with the interannual variability
of the ocean heat storage data.
From Wong et a. «The interannual variability of the net flux anomalies in Fig. 7 from the ERBS Nonscanner WFOV and CERES Scanner agree very well with the interannual variability
of the ocean heat storage data.
The Longer - term rate
of ocean heat storage is modulated by the total amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which ultimately alter the net overall thermal gradient between ocean heat and space.
R GATES: The Longer - term rate
of ocean heat storage is modulated by the total amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which ultimately alter the net overall thermal gradient between ocean heat and space.
As shown in figure 4, Meehl et al's climate model simulations had the bulk
of the ocean heat storage occurring in the Southern Ocean and the Pacific, but most deep ocean storage during IPO - equivalent decades was in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans.
For example, measurement
of the ocean heat storage doesn't support any slowdown.
In fact, the calculation has been done very carefully by Hansen and co-workers, taking all factors into consideration, and when compared with observations
of ocean heat storage over a period long enough for the observed changes to be reliably assessed, models and observations agree extremely well (see this article and this article.).
Not exact matches
While it is still possible that other factors, such as
heat storage in other
oceans or an increase in aerosols, have led to cooling at the Earth's surface, this research is yet another piece
of evidence that strongly points to the Pacific
Ocean as the reason behind a slowdown in warming.
«Ultimately, we want to know what effect the transportation and
storage of heat has on the
ocean.
The research also supports a theory that a parallel pause in air temperature rise in recent years may result from
storage of heat in the deep
ocean.
[Response: We have estimates
of the imbalance through looking at
heat storage in the
ocean and looking at the surface energy budget, but I'll defer to Gavin on how accurate those estimates are.
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ocean view ** Well maintained
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Ocean Front building on Galt
Ocean Mile ** Walking distance to shopping, grocery, drugstore, and restaurants ** Lobby and hallways have just been redone ** Heated Pool ** Washer and Dryer hookup in kitchen ** Storage Unit on same floor ** BBQ area ** Entire building has impact windows or hurricane shutters ** Tons of St
Ocean Mile ** Walking distance to shopping, grocery, drugstore, and restaurants ** Lobby and hallways have just been redone **
Heated Pool ** Washer and Dryer hookup in kitchen **
Storage Unit on same floor ** BBQ area ** Entire building has impact windows or hurricane shutters ** Tons
of Storage
Future topics that will be discussed include: climate sensitivity, sea level rise, urban
heat island - effects, the value
of comprehensive climate models,
ocean heat storage, and the warming trend over the past few decades.
Guemas et al. (Nature Climate Change 2013) shows that the slower warming
of the last ten years can not be explained by a change in the radiative balance
of our Earth, but rather by a change in the
heat storage of the
oceans, and that this can be at least partially reproduced by climate models, if one accounts for the natural fluctuations associated with El Niño in the initialization
of the models.
It seems to me that they must show deeper mixing than 50 M, since there is not enough mass in the upper 50 meters
of ocean to account for the annual
heat storage changes that are implied by observations for the the full integrated 700 meter volume
of ocean.
Since the
heat storage capacity
of the
ocean is > 1000 times that
of the atmosphere, having a solid handle on all these is crucial to accurately projecting even average mean climate across multi-decadal time.
From the perspective
of the planetary energy balance
heat storage in the
ocean is the key mechanism.
Another 0.5 K
of warming is already «in the pipeline» due to
ocean heat storage no matter what we do.
There continues to be significant excess
heat storage in the Arctic
Ocean at the end
of summer due to continued near - record sea ice loss.
----- On a matter unrelated to the late Sir Arthur: @Thapa (# 5), see NASA's current issue
of The Earth Observer (page 16): «These findings were enough to convince the scientists who initially reported the
ocean cooling [Willis et al. (2007)-RSB- to go back and closely reexamine the recent
ocean heat storage data they had collected.
Others include, the role
of the Sun (being the main
heat source), the vast
oceans which cover over 70 %
of the Earth's surface (and the natural factors which determine the
storage and release
of CO2 back into the atmosphere), water - vapour being the dominant greenhouse gas comprising 98 %
of the atmosphere, the important role
of low - level clouds which is thought to be a major factor in determining the natural variation
of climate temperatures (P.S. Significantly, computer - models are unable to replicate cloud - formation and coverage — which again — injects bias into model).
It seems that those who fear AGW (or at least some
of them) do admit that it is not realistic to expect a planetary atmosphere such as ours to warm up
oceans of water over the timescale required by AGW theory because
of the huge volume and density
of that water and thus the
heat storage differentials.
When I say
heat storage I am aware that the
heat energy is not «trapped» in either atmosphere or
ocean, merely that varying amounts
of solar
heat energy are delayed in the process
of transmission through the
ocean / atmosphere system.
There are several reasons for this; for example, aerosol emissions have risen, there has been a preponderance
of La Niña events at the end
of this timeframe, there has been increased
heat storage in the deep
oceans, and there was also an extended solar minimum.
This problem for AGW proponents is greatly enhanced if one considers the much more dense
oceans as part
of the planetary atmosphere for
heat storage purposes.
As the average depth
of the
oceans is about 3800 m, this geophysical fluid acts as a huge
heat storage system for the planet.
The most reliable source
of information for changes in the global mean net air — sea
heat flux comes from the constraints provided by analyses
of changes in
ocean heat storage.
This was my mental equation dF = dH / dt + lambda * dT where dF is the forcing change over a given period (1955 - 2010), dH / dt is the rate
of change
of ocean heat content, and dT is the surface temperature change in the same period, with lambda being the equilibrium sensitivity parameter, so the last term is the Planck response to balance the forcing in the absence
of ocean storage changes.
And that average depth
of the
oceans is an order
of 3 magnitudes greater, about 3600 meters; changes in
ocean heat storage and ventilation have humongous impacts on global climate.
This technical document speaks
of the
ocean's
storage of heat and carbon and its connection with the rate and degree
of changes in climate and in the Earth climate system.
The response that is computed involves every one
of the items you list — among them terrestrial and
ocean heat storage, convective adjustments, regional and seasonal variations, and a multitude
of feedbacks.
You may have confused the curve labelled «
Ocean Heat Storage» for a representation of heat cont
Heat Storage» for a representation
of heat cont
heat content.
So, despite most
of the
heat entering into the
ocean via the Pacific, there's no realistic expectation that all the
heat storage during the current negative phase
of the IPO would be stored there.
To the extent it matters, «
Ocean heat storage capacity» might best correspond to warming
of the air intakes due to diffusion
of heat from a warm engine.
Have no idea who the «climate clique» is, but the greater energy
storage capacity and greater thermal inertia
of the
oceans combined with the fact that net
heat flow is always from
oceans to atmosphere would dictate that the
oceans would show more consistent long - term warming than the atmosphere.
Me — The Wong reference says — «The drop in the global
ocean heat storage in the later part
of 1998 is associated with cooling
of the global
ocean after the rapid warming
of the
ocean during the 1997 — 98 El Niño event (Willis et al. 2004).»
«Our simulated 1993 - 2003
heat storage rate was 0.6 W / m2 in the upper 750 m
of the
ocean.
«The drop in the global
ocean heat storage in the later part
of 1998 is associated with cooling
of the global
ocean after the rapid warming
of the
ocean during the 1997 — 98 El Niño event (Willis et al. 2004).»
After the extreme 2007 minimum, the ice cover has shown to be capable
of a slight recovery, despite the anomalous
heat storage in the
ocean at the end
of summer.
The vast areas
of open water in 2007 and 2008 increased the amount
of summer
ocean heat storage.
I agree that the specific
heat and
storage capacity
of things like the
oceans (especially) play a role in regulating the Earth, but you have to bear in mind that from the point
of view
of outer space, the Earth is a system with precisely one channel.
Large areas had open water with no indication
of grease ice formation, implying considerable
ocean heat storage.
I guess that if the flux is «disappeared» that would suggest that the true process maybe something like
storage of heat in the
ocean.
The agreement is within the
ocean heat storage sampling uncertainties, with 1 - sigma difference in the anomalies
of 0.4 W m 2.
Given the absence
of large volcanic eruptions in the past two decades (the last one being Mount Pinatubo in 1991), multiple volcanic eruptions would cause a cooling tendency [196] and reduce
heat storage in the
ocean [197].
One
of these was just referred to in connection with the Southern Hemisphere potentially being another location for
ocean heat storage that was not sampled well by Argo.
This is particularly true for a long term response to CO2 forcing, because
of the major role
of the deep
ocean (down to 4000 meters and even below) in long term
heat storage needed for equilibrium.
The Chen and Tung paper is an important link in our understanding, and changes in the Atlantic
Ocean heat storage seem to explain the shape
of the global surface variations since the end
of the Little Ice Age (circa 1850).
-- the atmospheric concentration
of CO2 and other GHG's; — the reflective & absorptive characteristics, as a function
of wavelength, for the GHG's; — the specific
heat and mass
of the earth's intermediate - term
heat -
storage media — the
oceans (primarily) and the atmosphere; — the quantity
of heat absorbed by phase - changes = ice - melt; and by chemical / biological processes.