Long - term animations
of ocean temperature anomalies show it well.
Environmental variables estimated over larger spatial and temporal scales included the upwelling index (UI) for 48 ° N, 125 ° W (http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov), an indicator of upwelling strength based on wind stress measurements, as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest), a composite indicator
of ocean temperature anomalies [33], seawater temperature from Buoy 46041 ∼ 50 km to the southwest from Tatoosh (www.ndbc.noaa.gov), and remote sensing of chl a (SeaWiFS, AquaModis).
However, it is unknown if the temporal variability of these aerosols is a key factor in the evolution
of ocean temperature anomalies.
[Response: Short term seasonal forecasting is very much an experimental endeavour and relies not on the predictability due to changes in forcings, but the persistence
of ocean temperature anomalies.
We find that over a wide range of values of diapycnal diffusivity and Southern Ocean winds, and with a variety of changes in surface boundary conditions, the spatial patterns
of ocean temperature anomaly are nearly always determined as much or more by the existing heat reservoir redistribution than by the nearly passive uptake of temperature due to changes in the surface boundary conditions.
Not exact matches
«The data showed that both greenhouse gases and sea surface
temperature anomalies contributed strongly to the risk
of snow drought in Oregon and Washington,» said Mote, a professor in OSU's College
of Earth,
Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Time series
of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14 °C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper
ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm − 2 on average) than previous results.
The westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere, which increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but which have since returned to about normal as part
of NAO and NAM changes, alter the flow from
oceans to continents and are a major cause
of the observed changes in winter storm tracks and related patterns
of precipitation and
temperature anomalies, especially over Europe.
During the year, the global monthly
ocean temperature anomaly ranged from +0.58 °C (+1.04 °F; February) to +0.86 °C (+1.55 °F; October), a difference
of 0.28 °C (0.51 °F).
See e.g. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/ZonAnn.Ts+dSST.txt — at 64 - 90N the GISS land -
ocean temperature index for 1937 - 8 reached an average
anomaly of +1.29 C, which was not surpassed again for a 2 - year period until 2002 - 3 (+1.33 C)
(1) The warm sea surface
temperatures are not just some short - term
anomaly but are part
of a long - term observed warming trend, in which
ocean temperatures off the US east coast are warming faster than global average
temperatures.
Using the adjoint
of an
ocean general circulation model, I try to understand the local and remote processes that generate
temperature anomalies in the Nordic Seas on different timescales and their potential contribution to decadal climate predictability.
Of the sort: thermal expansion rate ~ heat flow rate into the
ocean ~
temperature anomaly.
«In the global [land and
ocean]
temperature anomaly data series
of 1880 to 2010, the trend presented an increase
of 0.6 oC per Century.
All siding with its infinite growth paradigm, so I'm not surprised to see you writing counter-pieces to the harsh truth, which, as it stands, is that we have a pretty much dead and severely warming
ocean, daily record - breaking jet - stream related weather incidents, which in turn are caused by polar
temperature anomalies of +20 C as
of late.
And a study by Evan et al (2009) The Role
of Aerosols in the Evolution
of Tropical North Atlantic
Ocean Temperature Anomalies
Why would the DERIVATIVE
of the sea level be similar to the
temperature anomaly when (at least according to the IPCC report, the sea level rise is largely due to the thermal expansion
of the
oceans (1.6 + -0.5 mm / yr).
«Borehole
temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the last 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa... The phenomena has been called the polar see - saw... Attempts to account for it have included the hypothesis
of a south - flowing warm
ocean current with a built in time lag... There is (however) no significant delay in the Anarctica climate
anomaly...
The behavior
of the
anomalies of temperature and salinity in the central Arctic
Ocean follow a first - order linear response to the AO with time constant
of 5 years and a delay
of 3 years.
The 2005 Jan - Sep land data (which is adjusted for urban biases) is higher than the previously warmest year (0.76 °C compared to the 1998
anomaly of 0.75 °C for the same months, and a 0.71 °C
anomaly for the whole year), while the land -
ocean temperature index (which includes sea surface
temperature data) is trailing slightly behind (0.58 °C compared to 0.60 °C Jan - Sep, 0.56 °C for the whole
of 1998).
England et al. suggest that the recent Pacific
Ocean surface
temperature anomalies are related to a strengthening
of Pacific trade winds in the past two decades, and that warming is likely to accelerate as the trade wind
anomaly abates.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination
of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air
Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
The entire OHC content
anomaly when converted from Joules back to
temperature in the
ocean is on the order
of 0.09 C (I assume you can do the math and conversion, but if not let me know and I'll show my work).
The same holds true for a remarkable positive
temperature anomaly in the northern part
of the Atlantic
Ocean.
While
temperatures remained elevated across the equatorial Pacific during the winter
of 2014 - 15, the atmosphere never coupled to the changes in the
ocean, failing to bring further westerly wind
anomalies, and an El Niño did not occur.
to be consistent, either we should have 100 points measuring the
temperature on a specific hour
of the day on mountains and in the
ocean, and no average world
temperature, or we should do the same with CO2, measure high for the day, low for the day, average, and make a global average from many regions, and then define an
anomaly on the same interval as the
temperature anomaly in order to be consistent.
Air
temperatures at 925 millibar (about 3,000 ft above the surface) were mostly above average over the Arctic
Ocean, with positive
anomalies of 4 to 6º Celsius over the Chukchi and Bering seas on the Pacific side
of the Arctic, and over the East Greenland Sea on the Atlantic side.
«In response to the increase in greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the positive
temperature anomaly initially appears in the well - mixed surface layer
of the
ocean called the «mixed layer».
«However, the detailed analysis
of the numerical experiment reveals that the absence
of substantial surface warming in the Circumpolar
Ocean is attributable not only to the large fraction
of the area covered by the
oceans but also to the deep penetration
of positive
temperature anomaly into the
oceans.»
Bjerknes, 1966: A possible response
of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial
anomalies of ocean temperature.
Key factors expected to influence the regional climate during the OND 2016 season include the evolution
of Sea Surface
Temperature (SST)
anomalies over the tropical
Oceans.
Overall
of course, we do see higher
temperature anomalies over land on a historical basis, owing to the huge modulation role that the
ocean plays in the storage
of excess energy and the higher humidity levels over the
ocean.
Given the fact the the bulk
of the energy in the TOA imbalance is getting stored in the
ocean, yet
temperature anomalies over the
ocean are less than over the land, for the above stated reasons, the global combined land and
ocean (that is, air over the
ocean)
temperature anomalies actually tend to greatly understate to a the actual effects
of the anthropogenic caused TOA
anomaly.
Figure 5.3 shows the linear trends (1955 to 2003)
of zonally averaged
temperature anomalies (0 to 1,500 m) for the World
Ocean and individual basins based on yearly
anomaly fields (Levitus et al., 2005a).
The graphic below (Roemmich & Gilson [2011]- The Global
Ocean Imprint
of ENSO) is derived from ARGO subsurface
temperature observations for the region 60 ° N - 60 ° S, the red line denotes the positive / negative phases
of ENSO, and the black line is the sea surface
temperature anomaly.
Comparison
of global lower troposphere
temperature anomaly over the
oceans (blue line) to a model based on the first derivative
of atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa (red line).
Hocker's Figure 2 shows a comparison
of the observed and modeled global
ocean temperature anomaly:
Given the context
of this highly anomalous and extremely persistent atmospheric ridging over the northeastern Pacific
Ocean, it's very interesting to note that there has also been a region
of strongly positive sea surface
temperature anomalies in same the general vicinity for the past 10 - 11 months.
The
anomaly of the
ocean heat content is more important than the atmospheric
temperature anomaly for the conclusion whether global warming stopped or whether it hasn't, anyway.
Index Profile
of the Stadium Wave: ■ Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a monopolar pattern
of sea - surface -
temperature (SST)
anomalies in theNorth Atlantic
Ocean.
Some processes arise through interactions with other parts
of the climate system such as the
ocean (for example as manifested through sea surface
temperature anomalies), sea ice
anomalies, snow cover
anomalies as well as through coupling to the circulation in the stratosphere.
Map
of air
temperature anomalies for December 2009, at the 925 millibar level (roughly 1,000 meters [3,000 feet] above the surface) for the region north
of 30 degrees N, shows warmer than usual
temperatures over the Arctic
Ocean and cooler than normal
temperatures over central Eurasia, the United States and southwestern Canada.
In July, sea surface
temperatures anomalies were already at 1.0 °C above normal in the central equatorial Pacific
Ocean, and in excess
of 2.0 °C above normal across the eastern Pacific — and still rising.
Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictors.
Regardless
of whether or not the
oceans integrate ENSO and portray it in sea surface temperature anomalies, the West Pacific and East Indian Oceans warm in response to both El Nino and La Nina events, so there is a cumulative response to ENSO by a major portion of the global o
oceans integrate ENSO and portray it in sea surface
temperature anomalies, the West Pacific and East Indian
Oceans warm in response to both El Nino and La Nina events, so there is a cumulative response to ENSO by a major portion of the global o
Oceans warm in response to both El Nino and La Nina events, so there is a cumulative response to ENSO by a major portion
of the global
oceansoceans.
«The last century stands out as the
anomaly in this record
of global
temperature since the end
of the last ice age,» says Candace Major, program director in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division
of Ocean Sciences.
I'm very convinced that the physical process
of global warming is continuing, which appears as a statistically significant increase
of the global surface and tropospheric
temperature anomaly over a time scale
of about 20 years and longer and also as trends in other climate variables (e.g., global
ocean heat content increase, Arctic and Antarctic ice decrease, mountain glacier decrease on average and others), and I don't see any scientific evidence according to which this trend has been broken, recently.
Strong, localized sea surface
temperature anomalies may reveal that an
ocean current, such as the Gulf Stream Current off the east coast
of the United States, has veered off its usual path for a time or is stronger or weaker than usual.
Here we use an ensemble
of simulations with a coupled
ocean — atmosphere model to show that the sea surface
temperature anomalies associated with central Pacific El Niño force changes in the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation.