Not exact matches
Seasonal weather fluctuations also depend on factors such as proximity to oceans or other large bodies
of water, currents in those oceans, El Nino / ENSO and other
oceanic cycles, and prevailing winds.
Paul Dirmeyer, a professor in the department
of atmospheric,
oceanic and earth sciences at George Mason University who was not involved in the study, notes: «Green et al. put forward an intriguing and exciting new idea, expanding our measures
of land - atmospheric feedbacks from mainly a phenomenon
of the water and energy
cycles to include the biosphere, both as a response to climate forcing and a forcing to climate response.»
Carbonates are important constituents
of marine sediments and are heavily involved in the planet's deep carbon
cycle, primarily due to
oceanic crust sinking into the mantle, a process called subduction.
Mouchet, A., and L. François, 1996: Sensitivity
of a global
oceanic carbon
cycle model to the circulation and to the fate
of organic matter: Preliminary results.
The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition (the concentrations
of carbon dioxide, methane); changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch
cycles (and possibly the Sun's orbit around the galaxy); the motion
of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount
of continental and
oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which could affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics
of the Earth - Moon system; and the impact
of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions
of supervolcanoes.
The month - long sea campaign across the Pacific on the research vessel Falkor will monitor the diversity
of oceanic phytoplankton, microscopic plant - like organisms, and their impact on the marine carbon
cycle.
Including littoral, wetland, and mangrove ecosystems, to seagrass beds interspersed with lagoonal reefs, to the outer barrier reef platform and
oceanic atolls, this ecological gradient provides for a full complement
of life -
cycle needs, supporting critical spawning, nesting, foraging, and nursery ecosystem functions.
«The climate patterns responsible for the expected above - normal 2007 hurricane season continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set
of oceanic and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995), warmer - than - normal sea surface temperatures in key areas
of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and the El Nino / La Nina
cycle»
Our findings have significance for global carbon
cycling,
oceanic carbon sequestration, and the cellular biology
of coccolithophores.
These variables include volcanic outgassing, Malankovich
cycles, tectonic plate movements, solar variability, meteor impacts, comet tails, albedo,
oceanic circulation, topography, a variety
of hidden threshold effects, biological evolution and human technology.»
Based on findings related to
oceanic acidity levels during the PETM and on calculations about the
cycling of carbon among the oceans, air, plants and soil, Dickens and co-authors Richard Zeebe
of the University
of Hawaii and James Zachos
of the University
of California - Santa Cruz determined that the level
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by about 70 percent during the PETM.
Also, as it relates to the AGW discussion, since the
oceanic tidal
cycle has such a long duration, wouldn't this
cycle be irrelevant, since AGW has only taken hold over the last 150 years and has such a high rate
of temperature increase?
As the LIA lasted only a few centuries, wouldn't the
oceanic tidal
cycles be either irrelevant, or at least not individually responsible for the occurrence
of the LIA?
If so, I think we want to include tightly coupled chemical and biological processes, in that case — for example, the chemical fate
of atmospheric methane over time, the effects
of increasing atmospheric CO2 on
oceanic acid - base chemistry, and the response
of the biological components
of the carbon
cycle to increased temperatures and a changing hydrologic
cycle.
They say that their research shows that much
of the warming was caused by
oceanic cycles when they were in a â $ ˜warm modeâ $ ™ as opposed to the present â $ ˜cold modeâ $ ™.
Additionally the
oceanic warming and cooling
cycles introduce constant, rapid and substantial changes not yet reflected in any models and which invalidate any averaged global estimates
of the planetary heat budget.
Thus, these microscopic bacteria perform a huge function in helping determine the
oceanic ecosystem response to the
cycling of carbon under climate change.
Fossil fuel consumption rates will slowly diminish over the coming decades as fossil fuels are gradually depleted, and the resultant atmospheric and
oceanic CO2 is predicted by IPCC modelers to END glaciation
cycles and thus, to open much
of Canada and Siberia to greatly improved agriculture and forestry.
«There are many natural
cycles that rely on severe weather and the precipitation it brings,» said Qinghong Zhang, professor
of atmospheric and
oceanic sciences, Peking University, lead author
of the study, who conducted this research while on sabbatical at Penn State.
And as mentioned above, by dawn the combined effect
of clear skies and
oceanic overturning has lost all
of the heat
of the previous day, and the
cycle starts over again.
Before it is safe to attribute a global warming or a global cooling effect to any other factor (CO2 in particular) it is necessary to disentangle the simultaneous overlapping positive and negative effects
of solar variation, PDO / ENSO and the other
oceanic cycles.
Geomagnetic storms hit the Arctic, induce strong currents, disturbing the Earth's field and feed back into the
oceanic currents, releasing some
of the stored heat during the previous
cycle (with less geomagnetic input):
By calculating the running total departing from this figure in a simple integration I found that combined with the ~ 60
oceanic cycles (also solar influenced), I could reproduce the temperature history
of the last 150 years quite accurately.
Geomagnetic storms hit the Arctic, induce strong currents, disturbing the Earth's field and feed back into the
oceanic currents, releasing some
of the stored heat during the previous
cycle (with less geomagnetic input): http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Spc.htm
We also need to identify all the separate
oceanic cycles around the globe and ascertain both the current state
of their respective warming or cooling modes and, moreover, the intensity
of each, both at the time
of measurement and in the future.
What is even more remarkable, is the fact that common frequencies seen in the two data sets [i.e. the flux optical depth anomaly and the SOI index] are simply those that would be expected if ENSO phenomenon is a resonant response
of the Earth's (atmospheric /
oceanic) climate system brought about by a coupling between it and the Earth's forced (18.6 year Nodical Lunar
Cycle) and unforced (1.2 year Chandler Wobble) nutations.
It will be hard to identify because, as I have mentioned in my other articles, the filtering
of the solar signal through the various
oceanic cycles is neither rapid nor straightforward.
On balance the evidence shows that solar and
oceanic variations are more likely the cause
of recent observations
of warming in the air than increasing CO2 in the air but the issue can soon be resolved by observing the global air temperature changes that occur during and after the extended
cycle 23 and the probable weak
cycle 24.
Scientists studying oceans demonstrate that the recent warming, to the end
of the last century, is part
of the natural
cycle of oceanic oscillations and predict a thirty year cooling phase.
In fact that point
of transition will itself vary over time depending on whether, at any given moment, the
oceanic cycles are working against or in support
of the TSI changes.
The natural
cycles can not be reasonable removed until it is known what in hell drives them, how long they last, what sort
of feedbacks do they create independently and among other
cycles, how they interact with CO2 and other first order anthro - forcings that alter the earths surface, atmospheric and
oceanic physiobiochemistry.
So where are the researchers
of old who went about studying flora and fauna populations tied to
oceanic / land temperature
cycles?
In some way, that's the engine where all the other variations must be hanged (specially variations in albedo because
of clouds - maybe connected with solar
cycles as other authors are trying to prove -, variations in albedo because
of sea ice extention, linked with the
oceanic currents - as in the «stadium wave» that was presented by Curry and others, etc., variations in heat exchange between atmosphere and oceans, and so on.
The close linkage between the
oceanic and terrestrial water
cycles motivated Li et al. to explore whether salinity signatures can be utilized as a predictor
of terrestrial precipitation.
Once the sign
of the solar effect on the stratosphere is reversed it becomes possible to propose a system
of climate change arising simply from the latitudinal shifting
of the air circulation systems in response to competing forces from variable
oceanic and solar
cycles.
A complete planetary
oceanic cycle involving all the separate ocean
cycles would take longer and it seems that all the ocean
cycles act out
of phase for most
of the time and so further complicate the issue.
There are also a number
of effects which can have a large impact on short - term temperatures, such as
oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the 11 - year solar
cycle.
It takes decades (even centuries) for (deep)
oceanic heat transport to manifest at the surface so we see a combination
of short - term heat manifestation as a result
of the 11 yr solar
cycle and longer - term variation.
Even that model will soon be out -
of - the - money when air temperatures follow the
oceanic cycle / sunspot
cycle composite eventually.
My own opinion is an internal
oceanic cycling independent
of the ENSO / PDO mechanism.
The reason for a reduced CO2 rate
of rise was probably not due to a reduction in emission rates, but it may have reflected carbon
cycle feedbacks that slightly altered the balance between atmospheric CO2 and terrestrial and
oceanic sinks.
All those effects (GHGs, solar and
oceanic) operate by changing the speed
of the water
cycle which speed responds instantly to changes in the atmospheric heights.
It seems to the writer that spreading global
oceanic cycles of up to 30 years in length across 3 solar
cycles results in a close enough match to fit temperature observations over the past few hundred years and especially since 1961.
Thus a decline in solar energy will have an immediate effect if it occurs at a time when the overall balance
of all the
oceanic oscillations is negative as now (2007 to date) when the end
of solar
cycle 23 is significantly delayed and the late start
of cycle 24 suggests a weaker
cycle than we have had for some time.
The main omissions in current climatology are to ignore the
oceanic role in setting and maintaining AND CHANGING the Earth's temperature and failing to recognise that the speed
of the hydro
cycle changes in response to those
oceanic forcings.In 1988 when this all started no one acknowledged the significance
of ENSO events globally or the existence
of 30 year phase shifts let alone a 500 year ocean
cycle.
It isn't just (pick one) CO2, nor «solar activity,» nor ENSO, nor PDO, nor AMO, nor
oceanic sequestering, nor human activity, nor natural
cycles, nor still coming out
of the Little Ice Age (talk about «lag»!
This article makes use
of recent findings about the relatively short decadal or multi decadal (20 to 30 years)
oceanic oscillations that, the writer contends, are short enough to bring the time scales involved in
oceanic changes into line with the solar
cycles of 11 years or so.
For example, there are
oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, comprised
of El Niño and La Niña events), an 11 - year solar
cycle, and particulates released during volcanic eruptions which cause short - term cooling by blocking sunlight.
You must calculate the greenhouse affect on the warming / lack
of warming in the
oceanic hydrological
cycle.
So do CO2
cycles, except the
oceanic evaporation
of CO2 occures about 600 years AFTER solar heating.