Sentences with phrase «of oceanic oscillations»

I don't understand Curry's point — I don't believe anybody is arguing that all of the hiatus is linked to ocean heat sequestration to the exclusion of oceanic oscillations.

«The concatenation of cooling phases of the oceanic oscillations».

Remember that there is a variable lag between the initial solar effect of warming or cooling on the Pacific Ocean and that effect then working through all the other oceanic oscillations so it is difficult to establish the overall balance of the oceanic oscillations at any given time.

It isn't, necessarily, but the concatenation of cooling phases of the oceanic oscillations suggests that even an abrupt shift sooner than the expected decoupling might as well be a cooling one as a warming one.

It just doesn't seem very strong to me and I'm afraid that it won't be strong enough to counteract the cooling from the oncoming Grand Solar Minimum, or even that of the concatenation of cooling phases of the oceanic oscillations.

The concatenation of cooling phases of the oceanic oscillations argue for two (2) more decades of cooling, and if the Cheshire Cat sunspots augur cooling, as they've done in the past, then we may cool for a century or more.

Chip, it's naive, but I'm compelled by the same rate of rise of temperature three separate times in the last century and a half, in the beat of the oceanic oscillations.

Scientists studying oceans demonstrate that the recent warming, to the end of the last century, is part of the natural cycle of oceanic oscillations and predict a thirty year cooling phase.

iii) Athough they explicitly acknowledge the modulating bottom up effect of oceanic oscillations they do not follow through.

Not exact matches

Results from a multiregression analysis of the global and sea surface temperature anomalies for the period 1950 — 2011 are presented where among the independent variables multidecade oscillation signals over various oceanic areas are included.

Over the last 30 years of direct satellite observation of the Earth's climate, many natural influences including orbital variations, solar and volcanic activity, and oceanic conditions like El Nino (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have either had no effect or promoted cooling conditions.

More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot data (as a proxy for ocean heat content), departing from the average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.

-LSB-...] These are a periodic oscillation related to the oceanic distribution of tropical heat.

We need to be cognizant of everything from local - scale stable boundary layer micrometeorolgy and ocean unstable boundary layer turbulent processes to global oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation and the Gulf Stream's seasonal evolution.

Preface This article attempts to consider the combined effect of the atmospheric greenhouse effect and oceanic oscillations.

This paper does not deserve the levels of positive response being given to it though I suppose it is understandable from those who were unaware of the climate significance of that 60 year oceanic oscillation.

In both hemisheres cold polar winds and storms pushing into lower latitudes are spinning up the oceanic gyres and increasing deep ocean upwelling in the eastern and central Pacific in the self reinforcing pattern of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.

Wyatt and Curry have further quantified the «Stadium Wave» sequence of oceanic / atmospheric oscillations around the earth (Wyatt 2013).

In order to properly understand, what is going on in the Arctic ocean, we first must understand the oceanic oscillation and the currents in this vast ocean, it is interesting to note, Sweden is recalling its ice breaker from the USA Antarctic survey, and there is concern in the sea of Okhotsk — where, for the last couple of years breaking the winter sea ice has been a major problem, colder here, relatively «warmer» there etc..

«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatOscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatOscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatOscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatOscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatoscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatOscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»

His contention is that this is due to a natural multi-decadal oceanic oscillation that is in its warming phase, superposed on a natural 200 - year warming trend - rebound since the end of the Little Ice Age.

My link below to article 1041 contains details of my view that the sun drives the various oceanic oscillations which in turn drive global temperature variations with all other influences including CO2 being minor and often cancelling themselves out leaving the solar / oceanic driver supreme.

For falsification we would need to observe events such as the mid latitude jets moving poleward during a cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually negative Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar activity and a warming ocean phase.

In effect they simply continue the distribution of the initial (solar induced) warming or cooling state around the globe and of course there are varying degrees of lag so that from time to time the other lesser oceanic oscillations can operate contrary to the primary Pacific oscillations until the lag is worked through.

2) D'Aleo, J. and Easterbrook, D.J., 2011, Relationship of multidecadal global temperatures to multidecadal oceanic oscillations: in Easterbrook, D.J., ed., Evidence - Based Climate Science, Elsevier Inc., p. 161 - 184.

That flip is one of our longer oceanic oscillations and I would bet this butterfly population in England is tied to it.

If not, why endorse «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate»?

Bear in mind that the oceanic change is itself irregular as witness the presence of both El Nino and La Nina episodes in both positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

There are also a number of effects which can have a large impact on short - term temperatures, such as oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the 11 - year solar cycle.

One important feature that plays a role in these variations is the periodic change of atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns in the tropical Pacific region, collectively known as El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation»

Thus a decline in solar energy will have an immediate effect if it occurs at a time when the overall balance of all the oceanic oscillations is negative as now (2007 to date) when the end of solar cycle 23 is significantly delayed and the late start of cycle 24 suggests a weaker cycle than we have had for some time.

The oceanic oscillations dominated the 20th Century with a spotted sun dogging them, and driving them; if this new variability of the sunspots presage global cooling, as it did in the Maunder, we may cool for a century or more.

This article makes use of recent findings about the relatively short decadal or multi decadal (20 to 30 years) oceanic oscillations that, the writer contends, are short enough to bring the time scales involved in oceanic changes into line with the solar cycles of 11 years or so.

My take is that the cause of the change is mostly solar / orbital and oceanic oscillations.

For example, there are oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, comprised of El Niño and La Niña events), an 11 - year solar cycle, and particulates released during volcanic eruptions which cause short - term cooling by blocking sunlight.

In practice the power of the oceans is such that amplification could be more than 5 times up or down when all the oceanic oscillations are in line with solar changes which is just what we had from 1970 to 2000.

«All the clouds and aerosols, not to mention temperatures linked to oceanic oscillations, have to do is account for the small amount of heat the GCM attribute to theorized positive feedbacks...»

I have already provided examples of observed real world shifts in global temperature trend going back to 1960 that match very well with shifts in the balance between solar variation and the net global effect of all the separate oceanic oscillations (especially the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which is by far the largest).

And, say scientists from Australia's Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, one of these is a slow - moving oceanic and atmospheric cycle called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which blows hot and cold and then hot again, every decade or so.

so I suspect that the Mediaeval warmth now emanating from the oceans may well warm the troposphere a little more during future years of warm oceanic oscillations.

For true falsification we would need to observe events such as the mid latitude jets moving poleward during a cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually powerful Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar turbulence and a warming ocean phase.

«On the basis of the information in the public domain about solar cycles and the positive PDO it should have been blatantly obvious that the world would warm up without the need to speculate on a contribution from CO2 or anything else... I find Mr. [Alec] Rawls very helpful in illustrating the effect of time lags between solar input and oceanic oscillations... As Mr. Rawls points out...

The presence of the longer - term effects on Australian rainfall from oceanic shifts, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), make the analysis of this situation, and the teasing out of the AGW influence, a complex matter.

The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.

Although correlations between the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the El Niño — Southern Oscillation are well known, the magnitude of the correlation and the timing of the responses of oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycle remain poorly constrained in space and time.

This would arguably be the consequence of all the various forcings, plus various feedbacks, plus various internal variabilities such as oceanic oscillations, plus external effects such as possibly solar magnetism and GCR's.

How do we even know that the oceanic oscillations would have had so extreme an impact since 1860 were it not for the CO2 level increase preceding that wildly swinging temperature pendulum north of the tropics since 1750?