Sentences with phrase «of oceanic variability»

Since 2009, US CLIVAR has collaborated with the OCB Program, whose mission is to study the impact of oceanic variability in the global carbon cycle in the face of environmental variability and change.

Climate models provide a means to derive such a link, under the assumption that the current generation of climate models captures the essence of the signature of oceanic variability on the global mean temperature.

In order to make the most accurate estimates of oceanic variability, it is necessary to combine different types of data into a single consistent field.

The mechanism by which the effect of oceanic variability over time is transferred to the atmosphere involves evaporation, conduction, convection, clouds and rainfall the significance of which has to date been almost entirely ignored due to the absence of the necessary data especially as regards the effect of cloudiness changes on global albedo and thus the amount of solar energy able to enter the oceans.

The paper... offers a useful framework for which decadal variations in the global (or northern hemisphere) may be explained via large scale modes of oceanic variability.

Not exact matches

Monitoring, understanding, and predicting oceanic variations associated with natural climate variability and human - induced changes, and assessing the related roles of the ocean on multiple spatial - temporal scales.

Changes here have a long term effect, affecting the strength of the north - ward horizontal flow of the Atlantic's upper warm layer, thereby altering the oceanic poleward heat transport and the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST — AMO), the presumed source of the (climate) natural variability.

Nature (with hopefully some constructive input from humans) will decide the global warming question based upon climate sensitivity, net radiative forcing, and oceanic storage of heat, not on the type of multi-decadal time scale variability we are discussing here.

These variables include volcanic outgassing, Malankovich cycles, tectonic plate movements, solar variability, meteor impacts, comet tails, albedo, oceanic circulation, topography, a variety of hidden threshold effects, biological evolution and human technology.»

It is clearly established that climate variability affects the oceanic content of natural and anthropogenic DIC and the air - sea flux of CO2, although the amplitude and physical processes responsible for the changes are less well known.

It is becoming increasingly clear that even if everything else I suggest is wrong we would still not be able to identify the tiny climate effect of our emissions as compared to that from solar and oceanic variability.

In fact, they may do so more efficiently than more uniform temperature change; warming one hemisphere with respect to the other is an excellent way of pulling monsoonal circulations and oceanic ITCZs towards the warm hemisphere (the last few years have seen numerous studies of this response, relevant for ice ages and aerosol forcing as well as the response to high latitude internal variability; Chiang and Bitz, 2005 is one of the first to discuss this, in the ice age context; I'll try to return to this topic in a future post.)

These results contradict the notion that oceanic variability is mostly baroclinic at interannual periods, regardless of location or spatial scale.

«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»

«Despite recent advances in the state of the global ocean observing system, estimating oceanic variability on basin - wide to global scales remains difficult.

Requires the Climate Service Program to: (1) analyze the effects of weather and climate on communities; (2) carry out observations, data collection, and monitoring of atmospheric and oceanic conditions; (3) provide information and technical support to governmental efforts to assess and respond to climate variability and change; (4) develop systems for the management and dissemination of data; (5) conduct research to improve forecasting and understanding of weather and climate variability and change and its effects on communities; and (6) develop tools to facilitate the use of climate information by local and regional stakeholders.

Three of these five intervals coincided with multidecadal hemispheric climate - regime shifts, which were characterized by a switch between distinct atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, a reversal of NHT trend, and by altered character of ENSO variability.

«This paper provides an update to an earlier work that showed a foreshadowing of such climate shifts in the time evolution of major Northern Hemispheric atmospheric and oceanic modes of variability [Tsonis et al., 2007].

Sea ice with its strong seasonal and interannual variability (Fig. 1) is a very critical component of the Arctic system that responds sensitively to changes in atmospheric circulation, incoming radiation, atmospheric and oceanic heat fluxes, as well as the hydrological cycle1, 2.

Combining the limitations of this data with the (interannual) variability in atmospheric and oceanic conditions between now and September 2008 leaves a wide range of scenarios open for how sea ice conditions may develop throughout the summer.

Atmospheric and oceanic variability in the Arctic shows the existence of several oscillatory modes.

This Section places particular emphasis on current knowledge of past changes in key climate variables: temperature, precipitation and atmospheric moisture, snow cover, extent of land and sea ice, sea level, patterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, extreme weather and climate events, and overall features of the climate variability.

Together the oceanic upwelling in the north and south Pacific and the movement of atmospheric mass from and to the poles provide almost all of the decadal variability in Earth's climate.

iv) The change in surface pressure distribution to dispose of the effects of more CO2 would be unmeasurable and unnoticeable compared to the observed historical shifts from solar and oceanic variability.

The results indicate that the surface ocean pCO2 trend is generally consistent with the atmospheric increase but is more variable due to large - scale interannual variability of oceanic processes.

The academic art of misdirection: Folks, ignore all those crazy climate variables like water vapor, clouds, solar and oceanic variability, that have been the drivers of climate since the beginning of time («still poorly understood» IPCC AR4).

The oceanic oscillations dominated the 20th Century with a spotted sun dogging them, and driving them; if this new variability of the sunspots presage global cooling, as it did in the Maunder, we may cool for a century or more.

A good place to start in comprehending the high variability of temperatures and sea ice in the Arctic is the recognition that, at those latitudes, the available heat comes primarily from oceanic and atmospheric advection, rather than local thermalization of insolation.

US CLIVAR is collaborating with the ocean carbon and biogeochemistry science community to increase observations and understanding of the coupled physical / biogeochemical processes that maintain the marine ecosystem and oceanic sources and sinks of carbon and predict how they will evolve in response to climate variability and change.

The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can change or reverse in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.

The problems we are working on range from basic studies of circulation patterns of water in the ocean and groundwater flow systems to the variability of the oceanic circulation under natural and anthropogenically forced conditions or the transport and transformation of contaminants.

They are the already mentioned ~ 2400 year Bray solar variability cycle, a ~ 1500 year oceanic cycle that might be related to the D - O cycle of glacial periods, and the ~ 1000 year Eddy solar variability cycle.

«This paper provides an update to an earlier work that showed specific changes in the aggregate time evolution of major Northern Hemispheric atmospheric and oceanic modes of variability serve as a harbinger of climate shifts.

Interestingly the oceanic timescales tie in nicely with the length of the THC of around 1000 years and the observed levels of solar variability such as MWP to date which is also around 1000 years.

Additionally, such an observing system, by measuring the temporal and spatial variability of the AMOC for approximately a decade, would provide essential ground truth to AMOC model estimates and would also yield insight into whether AMOC changes or other atmospheric / oceanic variability have the dominant impact on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability.

The inter-decadal time scale of tropical Indo - Pacific SST variability is likely due to oceanic processes.

In the meantime, their results have tentatively breathed a small hint of life back into the climate models, basically buying them a bit more time — time for either the observed temperatures to start rising rapidly as current models expect, or, time for the modelers to try to fix / improve cloud processes, oceanic processes, and other process of variability (both natural and anthropogenic) that lie behind what would be the clearly overheated projections.

iii) You need to smooth the solar cycles not just the sunspot numbers but it isn't a long enough period anyway because of the disruptive effects of the lesser solar and oceanic cycles and natural chaotic variability.

I appreciate the time you have put into that but I don't think 1860 is far enough back to remove the obscuring effects of the lesser solar and oceanic cycles and chaotic internal system variability.

However, O'Brien and colleagues found that this result is highly uncertain because the development and incidence of coastal marine fog are dependent upon interactions among three systems — atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial — which are each subject to broad ranges of variability.

«Even if it (the solar effect) is only 0.1 C over a solar cycle and a little more over a 500 year period from LIA to date then that's a good enough starting point for my NCM because all such solar variability needs to do is alter the size, position and intensity of the polar high pressure cells against an opposing force from oceanic variability.

Even if it is only 0.1 C over a solar cycle and a little more over a 500 year period from LIA to date then that's a good enough starting point for my NCM because all such solar variability needs to do is alter the size, position and intensity of the polar high pressure cells against an opposing force from oceanic variability.

On shorter timescales the background signal is overlain by chaotic variability and lesser solar and oceanic cycles.I'm sure one can find all sorts of contradicting examples on short timescales.

Some caution is necessary in implicating the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic as the primary sources of oceanic - forced variability in the global mean temperature.

Such concerns, however, are tangential to the global mean temperature signature of oceanic natural variability, which is robust and independent of spatial correlations that might obscure the identification of the precise geographical source of such variability.

Given these and other misrepresentations of natural oceanic variability on decadal scales (e.g., Zhang and McPhaden 2006), a role for natural causes of at least some of the recent oceanic warming should not be ruled out.»

Increasing attention is being paid to IPCC misrepresentations of natural oceanic variability on decadal scales (Compo and Sardeshmukh 2009): «Several recent studies suggest that the observed SST variability may be misrepresented in the coupled models used in preparing the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, with substantial errors on interannual and decadal scales (e.g., Shukla et al. 2006, DelSole, 2006; Newman 2007; Newman et al. 2008).

The comment to Table 2 notes: «In general, these historical gauges were designed to monitor the sea level variability caused by El Niño and shorter - term oceanic fluctuations rather than long - term sea level change, for which a high level of precision and datum control is required.»

This would arguably be the consequence of all the various forcings, plus various feedbacks, plus various internal variabilities such as oceanic oscillations, plus external effects such as possibly solar magnetism and GCR's.

In this paper, it is shown that coherent large - scale low - frequency variabilities in the North Atlantic Ocean — that is, the variations of thermohaline circulation, deep western boundary current, northern recirculation gyre, and Gulf Stream path — are associated with high - latitude oceanic Great Salinity Anomaly events.