Given the country's swampy economy, the spreading impact
of the oil collapse, crappy job creation, higher mortgage rates over the years to come and the fact young people are being priced out of YVR (not to mention the advancing hordes of socialists), residential real estate faces heavy headwinds.
We explore the root causes
of the oil collapse, including booming U.S. shale production and Saudi Arabia's decision to sell cheap oil rather than slash its output.
The price
of oil collapsed from near $ 120 a barrel in June 2014 due to weak demand, a strong dollar and booming U.S. shale production.
But the junk bond market actually began slowly rolling over a full year before the price
of oil collapsed:
Then the price
of oil collapsed — from $ 115 in June 2014 to less than $ 30 just over a year later.
Alberta has a revenue problem and if we should have learned anything since the international price
of oil collapsed in 2014, it is that we should not depend on royalty revenues from oil and gas to fund the day to day operations of our public services.
Since 50 % of sales are exposed to the oil and gas industry, let's take a look at how the company performed when the price
of oil collapsed between 2014 - 2016.
Not exact matches
The
collapse of oil prices is one culprit — but the larger problem is that Canada's aging population is radically reshaping the country's fiscal destiny
When the carrier's 2015 volumes fell because
of external forces, such as
collapsing oil prices, Reckmeyer saw an opportunity.
A rebound in
oil prices following the 2014
collapse of the crude market has somewhat curbed the need for such a large IPO, sources told the Wall Street Journal.
What Oliver should have done was backtrack on Harper's pledge to balance the budget, recognizing that the
collapse of oil prices would cause private investment to disintegrate.
The
collapse of oil prices interrupted the growth
of this part
of Berg's business, but «it's coming back,» Berggren says.
The Bank
of Canada said nothing in public about the possible merits
of deficit spending as it twice cut its benchmark interest rate last year to offset the
collapse of oil prices.
The
oil price
collapse has made a number
of companies more attractive.
Like other major European airlines, the Franco - Dutch carrier benefited from low
oil prices and strong travel demand last year, while the
collapse of Monarch and Air Berlin has removed some competition from the market.
The
collapse of oil prices wiped out profits and killed the incentive to expand in the
oil patch, and economic growth
of less than 2 % offers little incentive for non-energy companies to expand.
As crude prices began to plunge last year, many energy experts predicted a repeat
of 1986 when U.S.
oil companies lost their funding and the industry
collapsed into a yearslong bust.
By contrast, economic growth in Canada contracted in the first half
of the year and business investment — the most important factor in demand for imports —
collapsed along with
oil prices.
When the Bank
of Canada cut interest rates in 2015 to offset the
collapse of oil prices, it was worried about more than a blow to gross domestic product; it was also thinking about what mass firings in the
oil patch could mean for the financial system.
That conclusion is based in part by the recent experience
of Alberta, where home prices sunk after
oil prices
collapsed.
Frankel noted the basic features
of the
oil industry made for continuous crises with hectic prosperity followed all too swiftly by complete
collapse.
The Governing Council called the economy's adjustment to the
collapse of oil prices «uneven» and that business investment and intentions to invest remain «disappointing.»
«Hence, the fear
of deflation driven by an acute
oil price
collapse receded, allowing bond yields to move higher,» he added.
«I'm really concerned that we're going to have a real
collapse in Venezuela in
oil production over the course
of the next year,» which would in turn affect the government's ability to pay its debt, Rodriguez — who was head
of the Venezuelan Congressional Budget Office from 2000 to 2004 — said at the AS / COA event.
In recent years, investors have had to cope with plenty
of uncertainty: three summers worth
of the Greek default crises (2010, 2011, 2012); the US «fiscal cliff» in early 2013 and the government shutdown that October; the Ukraine - Russia conflicts; the
collapse in
oil prices; China's slowdown and currency devaluation; and now, Brexit.
With the
collapse of global
oil prices, the largest recyclers like Waste Management have reported sharp drops in recycling revenue and stagnated recycling rates across the country.
Terex's crane sales declined 7.5 % in 2014, falling most steeply in the latter half
of the year — when
oil prices were
collapsing — and coming in below the company's own forecasts.
Just ask the investors who thought energy stocks were a screaming bargain in the fall
of 2014 — just months before the
oil price
collapsed.
They saw the damage that would come from the
collapse of oil prices long before Bay Street did.
Russian markets, in recovery mode following a deep recession after the global
oil price
collapse in 2015, have been ravaged since Friday over fears
of U.S. sanctions.
Before branching out on his own, he was one
of legendary investor Julian Robertson's first so - called tiger cubs, responsible for some big market calls during the 1990s such as the
collapse of oil prices after start
of the Persian Gulf War and the plunge in the British pound.
Canada still is coping with «material excess capacity» because
of the
collapse of oil prices.
Oklahoma has been a huge
oil - producing state, and while drilling - heavy states have tended to do well in previous editions
of our rankings, the
collapse in
oil prices and in active drilling rigs is starting to hurt.
The shipments are significantly higher than the current record
of 179,000 barrels a day reached in September 2014 before
oil prices
collapsed.
To set the stage, Cramer took a look at two
of the biggest beneficiaries to the
collapse in
oil prices — retail and restaurants.
Jason Kirby at Maclean's wrote about a fellow who foresaw the
collapse of oil prices and now predicts future assessments
of current data will show the U.S. was in a recession at the start
of 2016.
The
collapse of oil prices and Western sanctions have plunged the Russian economy into a death spiral.
Oil prices
collapsed on Thursday to their lowest since late November as investor worries about the world's stubbornly persistent glut
of crude erased most
of the gains that followed last year's OPEC's output cut.
With the
collapse of manufacturing many unemployed young workers migrated to Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland for resource - extraction jobs, but employment growth in that sector has now largely evaporated with the falling price
of oil.
But when policy - makers studied the data, their models foretold a dark future from the
collapse of oil prices.
And now, the world is assuming that the tertiary effects — the
collapse of oil prices and crises in secondary exporters like South Korea — can be managed.
Carolyn Wilkins, the No. 2 at the Bank
of Canada, told me in an interview that Canada's housing market is trifurcated, or like a triple - layer cake: Toronto and Vancouver; Calgary and other places affected by the
collapse of oil prices; and everywhere else, where housing prices are flattening out.
Oil accounts for over 95 percent
of Venezuela's export earnings, so the
collapse has been acutely felt in the South American OPEC nation.
But being at war with your smaller neighbor can also be costly, especially if your belligerence attracts international criticism and economic sanctions, and coincides with a
collapse in the value
of oil, your key export commodity.
«It is likely the economy was in recession in the first half
of the year,» thanks to the damage from a
collapse in
oil and commodity prices that has persisted since 2014, senior economist Randall Bartlett said in a note to investors Monday.
This scenario was part
of our thinking at the beginning
of last year, when Canada's economy was hit by the
collapse in
oil prices and we cut our policy interest rate.
With the
oil and natural gas markets stabilized, at least for now, investors should begin considering which companies could emerge from the rubble
of the
oil price
collapse to see their stock prices double or triple in the next few years.
The 2014 - 2015
oil price
collapse may be understood then as a supply surplus that occurred at a time
of a strengthening U.S. economy (low economic uncertainty) and relatively low geopolitical risk (Figure 15).
A while back, O'Leary wrote an open letter to the Premier
of Alberta — a letter that included this sick burn: «Since you took over Alberta recently, the price
of oil has
collapsed.»
The 2008 - 2009
oil price
collapse was part
of an overall crash
of the entire global economy.