«Fildes argues that policymakers need to be responding to a wide range
of other climate forcings — not simply greenhouse gases — and considering their effects regionally as well as globally.
As the Sun provides an explicit external forcing, a better understanding of its cause and effect in climate change could help us evaluate the importance
of other climate forcings (such as past and future greenhouse gas changes).
Not exact matches
Yussuff and one
of the
other task
force members, Alberta Federation
of Labour President Gil McGowan, were at the centre
of the effort to secure McKenna's commitment to set up the task
force and ensure financial support for laid - off coal miners, after the minister led the formation
of the Powering Past Coal Alliance during last year's UN
climate change conference in Bonn.
In the
climate they have established, a number
of indigenous denominations unrelated to Western mission agencies in origin (such as the Kimbanguists and
other African independent churches, and a number
of Pentecostal denominations in Latin America) have become a major
force.
In this
climate of austerity and the need for public sector cuts, when so many are worried about the possibility that nurses, teachers and
other such essential workers will be
forced out
of work as government tightens its belt, it is worth noting that # 2.8 billion
of taxpayers» money was spent on consultancy fees in 2005 - 06 alone.
The threat
of hypothermia
forces cold -
climate farms to invest in heat lamps and
other accommodations for their shivering piglets.
Climate change, on the
other hand, is a complicated, diffuse, slow - moving set
of forces.
But this phenomenon, called «upwelling» has a very variable intensity due to the variability
of the currents in the Pacific Basin, to which
other ocean and
climate forcing mechanisms are added.
But it could conceivably play out in
climate negotiations, whereby some nations might inadvertently proffer just the right mixture
of emissions cuts and stubborn inaction,
forcing other countries to take on a disproportionate share
of the costs.
He argues that geoarchaeology — a relatively new science that combines aspects
of geology and archaeology — offers the potential to make dramatic contributions to our understanding
of how
climate change and
other large - scale environmental
forces are shaping human history.
It is thus the
climate commitment
of only CO2, not considering
other anthropogenic
climate forcings.
In addition, a wide range
of forcing schemes designed to span the approximate range
of uncertainties associated with anthropogenic
climate forcing estimates were generated and implemented in order to assess what differences in effects exist between the «best guess» counter-anthropogenic geoengineering
forcing scheme and
other plausible schemes.
Model simulations
of 20th century global warming typically use actual observed amounts
of atmospheric carbon dioxide, together with
other human (for example chloroflorocarbons or CFCs) and natural (solar brightness variations, volcanic eruptions,...)
climate -
forcing factors.
And a proper discussion
of climate change often does call for precise terms like external
forcing and general circulation models, and
other non-toddler friendly jargon.
James A. Edmonds • Member, IPCC Steering Committee on «New Integrated Scenarios» (2006 - present) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Framing Issues,» IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Global, Regional, and National Costs and Ancillary Benefits
of Mitigation,» IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Decision - Making Frameworks,» IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) • Lead Author, Working Group III, Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) • Lead Author, Working Group II, «Energy Supply Mitigation Options,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, Working Group II, «Mitigation: Cross-Sectoral and
Other Issues,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Estimating the Costs
of Mitigating Greenhouse Gases,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «A Review
of Mitigation Cost Studies,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Integrated Assessment
of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison
of Approaches and Results,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, IPCC Special Report,
Climate Change 1994: Radiative
Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation
of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios (1994) • Lead Author, IPCC Special Report,
Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (1992) • Major contributor, IPCC First Assessment Report, Working Group III, Response Strategies Working Group (1991).
Most
of the non-model estimates
of climate sensitivity are based on the analyses using
other forcings such as solar and aerosols, and the assumption that sensitivity to CO2 will be the same, despite the differences in way these
forcings couple to the
climate system.
Thus, this is why people are motivated to look at ancient
climates where there are times
of much larger temperature changes and
forcing signals, that we can hopefully relate to each
other to interrogate the sensitivity problem in a more robust fashion.
The importance
of heterogeneous human
climate forcings does not diminish the important
of added greenhouse gases, but does indicate that more attention needs to be given to these
other human
climate forcings, including how they can modify atmospheric and ocean circulation features.
A few
other things — Mann et al. does not «get rid»
of a MWP and LIA — «weaker TSI
forcing would imply the presence
of a stronger climatic feedback to TSI variation and / or a stronger
climate sensitivity to
other solar changes» — What about non-solar changes?
Since
climate scientists certainly don't have a crystal ball, we generally take a range
of scenarios or projections
of future emissions
of CO2 and
other important
forcings such as methane and aerosols.
Atmospheric CO2 and
other GHGs have been well - measured for the past half century, allowing accurate calculation
of their
climate forcing.
For example, if tribes migrate (d) to a certain locale or are
forced out
of an ideal way
of life due to cataclysm etc, (such as leaving fruit bearing tropical
climates due to sea level rise in ancient prehistory as seen from underwater megalithic stone temples from around the world) then that does nt mean their way
of life currently is the most ideal that the body thrives on, such as «paleo» diet or atkins diet or
other FAD BULLSHIT low carb, high fat diets that are EXTREMELY HARMFUL AS CITED CONCLUSIVELY.
The graphics are a bit Windows 2000, but the idea is neat: it controls the
climate system or
other parts
of the set - up (automatic headlights, unlocking regime and so on), activates a trip computer, triggers a g -
force meter or opens a bar - graph history
of your efforts at driving economically.
Now the Robert Rauschenberg Foundation, which he set up to provide support for causes that were important to him, is joining
forces with two
other like - minded organizations to present a series
of exhibitions, panel discussions and performances that will explore
climate change.
To better understand what Kilimanjaro and
other tropical glaciers are telling us about
climate change, one ultimately ought to drive a set
of tropical glacier models with GCM simulations conducted with and without anthropogenic
forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol).
The absence
of convincing attribution
of periods
other than 1976 - present to anthropogenic
forcing leaves natural
climate variability as the cause — some combination
of solar (including solar indirect effects), uncertain volcanic
forcing, natural internal (intrinsic variability) and possible unknown unknowns.
Some
other forcings have a very small global radiative
forcing and yet lead to large impacts (orbital changes for instance) through components
of the
climate that aren't included in the default set - up.
The
other point is that attribution studies evaluate the extent to which patterns
of model response to external
forcing (i.e., fingerprints) simulations explain
climate change in * observations.
While the local, seasonal
climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (
of the order 30 W / m2), the net
forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero in the global mean, requiring
other radiative terms (like albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to
force global - mean temperature change.
In general, I heartily agree —
other forcings are important, even essential, for understanding observed
climate variability and, as a community, we are only just starting to get to grips with some
of the more complicated effects.
The assessment based on these results typically takes into account the number
of studies, the extent to which there is consensus among studies on the significance
of detection results, the extent to which there is consensus on the consistency between the observed change and the change expected from
forcing, the degree
of consistency with
other types
of evidence, the extent to which known uncertainties are accounted for in and between studies, and whether there might be
other physically plausible explanations for the given
climate change.
In it, he has made clear that he feels that apart from greenhouse gases,
other climate forcings (the changes that affect the energy balance
of the planet) are being neglected in the scientific discussion.
One can see a number
of basic flaws here; the complete lack
of appreciation
of the importance
of natural variability on short time scales, the common but erroneous belief that any attribution
of past
climate change to solar or
other forcing means that CO2 has no radiative effect, and a hopeless lack
of familiarity
of the basic science
of detection and attribution.
The
other internal variations can be a little difficult to characterise (it isn't as simple as just a super-position
of all the
climate acronyms you ever heard
of NAO+SAM+PDO+AMO+MJO etc.), but the external (natural)
forcings are a little easier.
Also, in watching several presentations and reading several papers by Kirkby, I never found him dismissing Milankovitch
forcings at all, but rather outlining how the GCR / cloud modulation link could fit nicely into
other missing pieces
of the
climate puzzle.
Modelling uncertainty currently is such that in some
climate models, this amount
of freshwater (without any
other forcing) would shut down deep water formation, in some it wouldn't.
In
other words he apparently thinks we live in a world
of mysterious
forces which are utterly incomprehensible and
climate has responded like a voodoo doll to invisible hands through time.
Ruling out solar as a
forcing would be equivalent to saying ENSO and the NPI and
other forms
of natural variability no longer play a role in
climate change because
of CO2....
The problem here is that the «
forcings» are in fact some
other inherent variables
of the very same
climate - bearing system, but there is no clear separation
of time scales that allow for any sort
of coherent theories like «averaging
of fast motion» that results in Landau - Ginzburg - type equations for «slow envelopes».
Some
of them are optimal fingerprint detection studies (estimating the magnitude
of fingerprints for different external
forcing factors in observations, and determining how likely such patterns could have occurred in observations by chance, and how likely they could be confused with
climate response to
other influences, using a statistically optimal metric), some
of them use simpler methods, such as comparisons between data and
climate model simulations with and without greenhouse gas increases / anthropogenic
forcing, and some are even based only on observations.
What we will learn is that human emitted carbon is merely «a drop in the pond» and that
other factors which the «enthusiasts» have conveniently dismissed and the IPCC and
other models have ignored are the real drivers and
forcing of climate over both the long and short terms.
In
other words, it is possible that the the
climate system does exhibit some kind
of long - term chaos in some circumstances, but that the
forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar period.
President Bush and members
of his administration have criticized environmentalists» moves under the endangered species law and
other statutes to
force federal action on
climate change.
They are not tuned to trends, events (such as Pinatubo), paleo -
climates (6kyr BP, LGM, 8.2 kyr event, D / O events, the PETM, the Maunder Minimum or the Eocene),
other forcings (solar, orbital etc.)-- thus every match to those
climate changes is «out
of sample» in the sense you mean.
There's a long history
of assertions that clouds can be a substantial driver
of climate change, distinct from their clear potential to amplify or blunt (depending on the type
of cloud) a change set in motion by some
other force.
The ratios
of these
forcings, in
other words, would be no different in present - day studies, if the
climate is thought to be more sensitive to
forcings in general.
Summary for Policymakers Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives Chapter 6: Carbon and
Other Biogeochemical Cycles Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative
Forcing Chapter 8 Supplement Chapter 9: Evaluation
of Climate Models Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution
of Climate Change: from Global to Regional Chapter 11: Near - term
Climate Change: Projections and Predictability Chapter 12: Long - term
Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Chapter 13: Sea Level Change Chapter 14:
Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional
Climate Change Chapter 14 Supplement Technical Summary
Other nonradiative
forcings modify the biological components
of the
climate system by changing the fluxes
of trace gases and heat between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere and by modifying the amount and types
of vegetation.
On the
other hand, there is no reason to believe that the Walker circulation should change smoothly as a function
of climate forcings; perhaps the potential for change builds up over many years, and manifests itself all
of a sudden, in the fashion
of an avalanche.
What prevents that is the lack
of thorough calculations
of the net and individual
forcings in the
other climate models.