The model indicates that increased water vapor accounts for about 40 %
of the ozone loss in the upper stratosphere, and about 20 % of the overall loss to date.
«The models show this
magnitude of ozone loss would persist for five years, and we would see substantial losses continuing for at least another five years,» he said.
Temperature during the winter as a whole have generally decreased over the past two decades, likely as a result of climate change, but the
sensitivity of ozone loss to the exact timing of March warming events makes ozone depletion a much more variable quantity.
Spring 2011 has seen the largest - ever
degree of ozone loss over the northern hemisphere, journalists at the EGU General Assembly in Vienna heard this morning.
In addition to global mean equilibrium surface temperature changes, local surface temperature changes have been identified by Gillett and Thompson (2003) as a result
of ozone loss from the lower stratosphere.
In 1984, the US National Research Council reported that
rates of ozone loss were less than anticipated — fractions of 1 per cent.
Here, a color - coded map showing Earth's north polar region and very low ozone in the stratosphere at an altitude of 12 miles (20 kilometers) in mid-March 2011, the
peak of ozone loss.
Some degree
of ozone loss above the Arctic, and the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, are annual events during the poles» respective winters.
While the results do not show a significant impact on human health, especially considering that
most of the ozone loss documented in this study occurs over the northern polar region, they are important scientifically.
«By adopting the Montreal Protocol in 1987, society demonstrated it was unwilling to tolerate a small
percentage of ozone loss because of serious health risks,» said Toon.
It is possible to do a small - scale test, with quite low risks, that measures key aspects of the risk of geoengineering — in this case the
risk of ozone loss.»