Martin, when you have seen enough
of these paleoclimate studies having been shown to have major flaws you don't believe any of them until they have been properly audited by someone like Steve McIntyre.
The paleoclimatology community seems to be tightly coupled as indicated by our social network analysis, has rallied around the [Mann] position, and has issued an extensive series of alternative assessments most of which appear to support the conclusions of MBH98 / 99... Our findings from this analysis suggest that authors in the area
of paleoclimate studies are closely connected and thus «independent studies» may not be as independent as they might appear on the surface.
And as far as your constant disparagement
of all paleoclimate studies goes, it is worthless.
It is conventional honest serious scientists that are already doing what JC wants, and it is the nature
of paleoclimate studies the proxy reconstructions will never have the level of credibility of a direct measurement.
Not exact matches
Eelco Rohling, an ocean and climate scientist at the University
of Southampton in England, has
studied the
paleoclimate record going back 50 million years.
To conduct landmark
paleoclimate studies from Lake El «gygytgyn in eastern Siberia, geologist Julie Brigham - Grette
of the University
of Massachusetts, Amherst, relied heavily on Russian collaborators she has partnered with for years.
«With present - day emission rates, it's expected that we'll reach 600 ppm before the end
of this century,» says
study coauthor Simone Galeotti, a
paleoclimate scientist at the University
of Urbino in Italy.
«Our
study has found evidence to the contrary, suggesting that in fact, the future long - term trend based on
paleoclimate reconstructions is likely towards diminishing precipitation, with no relief in the form
of increased Mediterranean storms, the primary source
of annual precipitation to the region, in the foreseeable future.»
However,
studies evaluating model performance on key observed processes and
paleoclimate evidence suggest that the higher end
of sensitivity is more likely, partially conflicting with the
studies based on the recent transient observed warming.
However, the quantitative response to freshwater inputs varies widely among models (Stouffer et al., 2006), which led the CMIP and
Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) panels to design and support a set
of coordinated experiments to
study this issue (http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~kd/CMIP.html and http://www.pmip2.cnrs-gif.fr/pmip2/design/experiments/waterhosing.shtml).
However, values this low are inconsistent with numerous
studies using a wide variety
of methods, including (i)
paleoclimate data, (ii) recent empirical data, and (iii) generally accepted climate models.
Climate model
studies and empirical analyses
of paleoclimate data can provide estimates
of the amplification
of climate sensitivity caused by slow feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hyperthermal events.
A number
of major
studies looking at
paleoclimate data come to the same conclusion.
There are tons
of studies — ranging from
paleoclimate studies to
studies of volcanic effects, etc. that constrain climate response and which generally yield results consistent with the models.
One can temper that with
studies of paleoclimate sensitivity, but the ensemble results still should be borne in mind, since doubling CO2 takes us into a climate that has no real precendent in the part
of the climate record which has been used for exploring model sensitivity, and in many regards may not have any real precedent in the entire history
of the planet (in terms
of initial condition and rapidity
of GHG increase).
The research drew lessons from
paleoclimate studies of the Last Glacial Maximum, the cold peak
of the last ice age, that relate to the extent
of warmth possible in an era
of accumulating greenhouse gases:
- I don't
study tree rings at all, so this will be quite naive, but I took a class on
paleoclimate (actually with one
of your old office - mates, Mathias Vuille) discussing the standarization procedure and why this tends to remove some
of the low - frequency variation, though we never got into quantitative detail.
I suspect that there will be considerably more uncertainty attached to this activity than there was to the attribution
of climate change to anthropogenic activity — in part because the only guides we really have are the models and
paleoclimate studies, both
of which are subject to significant uncertainties.
The
paleoclimate evidence from this new
study supports the attribution
of the tropical temperature trend to the ever - increasing greenhouse gas burden in the atmosphere.
Paleoclimate studies of tropical ice cores tend to support the scenario
of changes in the tropics propagating northwards, too, not the reverse.
As we have discussed several times elsewhere on this site,
studies employing model simulations
of the past millennium have been extremely successful in reproducing many
of the details evident in
paleoclimate reconstructions
of this interval as a forced response
of the climate to natural (primarly volcanic and solar) and in more recent centuries, anthropogenic, radiative changes.
If you refer to the fact that CO2 levels rise after temperature rises (from
paleoclimate sediment core
studies, etc.), this MOST CERTAINLY DOES NOT imply anything in the way
of causality.
The example
of millennial
paleoclimate studies emphasises the paucity
of this argument, as the expert list is very small.
The occurence
of El Niño itself is — as far as science understands the phenomenon, based largely on Pliocene
paleoclimate comparisons, even Eocene «clam
studies «-- probably not strongly influenced by the trend
of global climate warming.
In this
study, which was led by Oregan State University, funded by the US National Science Foundation's
Paleoclimate Program and just published in Science, researchers used «extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions»
of around 21,000 years ago — in stead
of the (late) Holocene temperature record that is mostly used.
Paleoclimate studies (e.g., Peterson et al. 2000, Haug et al. 2001) and a series
of modeling
studies starting with Vellinga and Wood (2002), Chiang and Bitz (2005) and Broccoli et al. (2006) have revealed one important driver
of ITCZ shifts: differential heating or cooling
of the hemispheres shifts the ITCZ toward the differentially warming hemisphere.
The
study, «Assessing the Risk
of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and
Paleoclimate Data,» was also co-authored by Julia E. Cole, David M. Meko and Jonathan T. Overpeck
of University
of Arizona; and Gregory T. Pederson
of the U.S. Geological Survey.
But the most critical point to remember, if you are concerned about this for its impact on the validity
of AGW theory, is that the fight is over a single
study, published eight years ago, focused on
paleoclimate.
Answer: The first order
of business here is to correct the mischaracterization
of this single
paleoclimate study as the «foundation»
of global warming theory.
The Summary for Policymakers also incorporates, for the first time, information on, inter alia,
paleoclimate reconstruction
studies, geoengineering, and an emissions - based perspective on drivers
of climate change.
On the first sentence stating that the WGI report considers evidence
of past and future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations
of the climate system,
paleoclimate archives, theoretical
studies of climate processes, and simulations using climate models, Saudi Arabia proposed clarifying that evidence
of future climate change is based on models and simulations only.
Paleoclimate studies may be
of a high quality.
Although not part
of our
study, high - resolution
paleoclimate data from the past ~ 130 years have been compiled from various geological archives, and confirm the general features
of warming trend over this time interval»
The
study uses models,
paleoclimate data and modern observations to analyze the impact
of ice shed from Antarctic ice shelves and Greenland.
Howard J. Falcon - Lang (2005) «Global climate analysis
of growth rings in woods, and its implications for deep - time
paleoclimate studies» Paleobiology: Vol.
Scientists involved with the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project have developed goals and recommendations for
studying the
paleoclimate of the past 2000 years.
We use numerical climate simulations,
paleoclimate data, and modern observations to
study the effect
of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland.
A number
of major
studies looking at
paleoclimate data come to the same conclusion.
However, the separation
of char from soot has rarely been applied in
paleoclimate studies using sediment analysis, much less in investigations
of long - term records
of paleo - fires.
Chapter 6 highlights the fact that there are now a large number
of different
paleoclimate studies which all lead to the same key conclusion that northern hemisphere mean temperatures in recent decades are likely unprecedented in at least a millennial timeframe.
Our analysis is based on about equal parts
of information gleaned from
paleoclimate studies, climate modeling, and modern observations
of ongoing climate changes.
Climate model
studies and empirical analyses
of paleoclimate data can provide estimates
of the amplification
of climate sensitivity caused by slow feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hyperthermal events.
In summary,
paleoclimate studies provide one line
of evidence that supports an equilibrium climate sensitivity between about 2 and 4.5 °C, and the GWPF justification for dismissing these estimates is weak.
It's just one
study of one location JimD and it contradicts virtually every other Holocene
paleoclimate study.
However,
studies of paleoclimate proxies, such as tree rings and ice cores, have shown that oscillations similar to those observed instrumentally have been occurring for at least the last millennium.
To better understand these discrepancies, a recent
study published in Geophysical Research Letters investigates the drivers
of changes in deep ocean circulation across a range
of modern and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21000 years ago) climate simulations from the latest
Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP).
steven mosher Says: August 30th, 2011 at 2:20 pm Marlowe Johnson Says: August 30th, 2011 at 1:30 pm «
paleoclimate studies offer very little useful information in relation to the determination
of climate sensitivity.»
Although not part
of our
study, high - resolution
paleoclimate data from the past ~ 130 years have been compiled from various geological archives, and confirm the general features
of warming trend over this time interval (Anderson, D.M. et al., 2013, Geophysical Research Letters, v. 40, p. 189 - 193; http://www.agu.org/journals/pip/gl/2012GL054271-pip.pdf).
> For example, one
of the clear resuls from the IPCC effort is that
paleoclimate studies offer very little useful information in relation to the determination
of climate sensitivity.
Actually, climate science derives a great deal
of understanding
of the present climate through its
studies of the past, in particular the
paleoclimate.