If solar is increased by feedbacks (like cloud cover), that will give the same fit
of past temperature data at the cost of combined GHG + aerosol.
However if «unknown feedbacks» and other forcings can explain an even greater
proportion of past temperature changes, then researchers would be forced to suggest climate sensitivity to CO2 is much lower.
NW and Ken, a short answer is that the investigators need to combine evidence of tree - line fluctuations with
estimate of past temperature changes to model the spatial extent of the upper treeline zone in order to avoid this problem (by ensuring that only material that was within this zone at any given time is used).
Tree cores are though to be good
measures of past temperature (or, are a «proxy» for temperature) through the widths of tree rings contained in the core; tree rings generally occur once a year and have a width that is correlated to temperature.
It should be noted that records
of past temperature for the Southwest are still limited, and this assessment would be strengthened with additional paleoclimatic data for this region.
One of the leaked emails refers the «trick» of adding the real temperatures, as recorded by thermometers, to reconstructions
of past temperatures based on looking at things such as growth rings in trees.
Rather, as demonstrated in IPCC (2001)[see this comparison here] and numerous additional studies since, it is what is perhaps more aptly termed the «Hockey Team» — that is, the multiple independent reconstructions and model simulations that now indicate essentially the same pattern of hemispheric mean temperature variation in past centuries, that support a «Hockey Stick»
description of past temperature changes.
However, estimates
of past temperatures using proxy data near B will always yield the same temperature, namely TB, rather than a corresponding scatter of temperatures.
It is true that there are big uncertainties about the
accuracy of all past temperature reconstructions, and that these uncertainties have sometimes been ignored or glossed over by those who have presented the hockey stick as evidence for global warming.
Subscribers to trees as temperature proxies believe that they provide a picture
of past temperatures at times when thermometers were not present.
There will always be uncertainty, as there will be greater relative uncertainty in our
knowledge of past temperatures from» proxy indicators» such as tree - rings.
The «hockey stick» describes a reconstruction
of past temperature over the past 1000 to 2000 years using tree - rings, ice cores, coral and other records that act as proxies for temperature (Mann 1999).
However, after taking into account changes in the three other climate - controlling factors that we know about - orbital changes, ice caps, and dust - a
comparison of past temperature changes with past changes in GHG concentrations indicates that such a doubling of CO2 would actually result in a warming of 3oC or more.
That's because, they say, other studies
of past temperatures also indicate they are higher now, on average, than at any time in past 1,000 years, and perhaps far longer.