Of course there is the melting ice, but also the vast empirical evidence
of phenological changes.
In contrast to a number
of phenological studies showing nonlinear relationships between phenology and temperature, due largely to unmet chilling and photoperiod requirements, our findings demonstrate the relationship to be linear and to explain most of the variation in flowering.
The paper represents a «critical synthesis of the existing scientific support for the patterns, mechanisms, and consequences
of phenological changes in bird migration,» according to the study.
«I would like to see a network
of phenological data — such as bloom dates of particular plants — that could be tracked in real time worldwide,» NOAA's Peterson says.
Not exact matches
«As phenology is advancing around the globe, there are concerns that plant - pollinator interactions may be disrupted through
phenological mismatches, or mismatches in the timing
of when flowers bloom and their pollinators emerge, leading to reduced plant reproduction,» says lead author Zak Gezon, who conducted the research as a doctoral student at Dartmouth and who is now a conservation biologist with Disney's Animal Programs.
These results suggest that first flowering date, the most commonly collected
phenological metric in plants, is not necessarily an accurate estimator
of total responses to a changing climate.
As well as aiming to learn more about the
phenological response
of the U.K.'s orchids to environmental change, researchers hope this project will add to their understanding
of U.K. orchid distribution and population health more widely.
Climate change, phenology, and
phenological control
of vegetation feedbacks to the climate system.
NATALIE JEREMIJENKO EAT FLOWERS SUPPORT POLLINATORS: a
phenological clock
of local edible blossoms and the interdependent insects, birds and trees, 2014 Print on paper 56 x 56 in.
Given all the independent lines
of evidence pointing to average surface warming over the last few decades (satellite measurements, ocean temperatures, sea - level rise, retreating glaciers,
phenological changes, shifts in the ranges
of temperature - sensitive species), it is highly implausible that it would lead to more than very minor refinements to the current overall picture.
Given the level
of denialism in the face
of glacial mass loss, plummeting Arctic summer ice cover, progressive collapse
of ice shelves that have been stable for 6000 to 10000 years, northward, upward, and seasonally earlier movements
of ecosystems and other
phenological changes, increasing Greenland ice melt, and all the other direct observations
of global warming, I think denialists will go to their graves believing it can't be happening.
Overall, we identified Alsace, Burgundy and Champagne as the most vulnerable regions, where the probability
of tardive frost is projected to significantly increase throughout the 21st century for two out
of three
phenological models.
Such
phenological plasticity among key secondary producers like zooplankton may thus narrow the risks
of extreme mismatch between primary production and secondary production in an increasingly variable arctic environment.
The UHI effect is real enough, but it is corrected for — and in any case can not effect ocean temperatures, retreating glaciers or
phenological changes (all
of which confirm significant warming).
Because poor simulation
of meteorological variables is common in climate models, a determination that meteorological variability is more important for certain variables than leaf variability may point to meteorological bias correction as a more fruitful development path — for certain model applications — than the development
of a dynamic
phenological routine.
Climate - induced change in biotic interactions, such as loss
of mutualist partner species, increases in disease or pest incidence,
phenological mismatches, or trophic cascades through food webs after decline
of a keystone species.
To quantify the contribution
of the UHI effect to
phenological variation is therefore another hot topic for the future in the field
of phenology.»
In fact, from the validation I have seen and the difference with «naive» 1D models or purely
phenological extrapolations / fits, you will have to argue a lot before I accept to let them go out
of «experimental».
At present, there are few
phenological observation sites in other suburbs
of Beijing, and so the relative contribution to
phenological advancement by natural climate warming and the UHI effect could not be distinguished clearly.
Cook, B.I., Mann, M.E., D'Odorico, P., Smith, T.M., Statistical Simulation
of the Influence
of the NAO on European Winter Surface Temperatures: Applications to
Phenological Modeling, Journal
of Geophysical Research, 109, D16106, doi: 10.1029 / 2003JD004305, 2004.
Recorded observations show an increase in air temperature which is associated with an earlier onset
of hop
phenological phases and a shortening
of the vegetation period.