Bracken C., B. Rajagopalan, L. Cheng, W. Kleiber and S. Gangopadhyay (August 2016): Spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling
of precipitation extremes over a large domain.
O'Gorman, P. A., and T. Schneider, 2009: Scaling
of precipitation extremes over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized GCM.
Not exact matches
«If we look at
precipitation events
over the long term, there is an increase in frequency
of extremes.
Based on
over a decade
of asthma hospitalization data (115,923 cases from 2000 - 2012), researchers observed higher risk
of asthma hospitalization after
extreme heat or
extreme precipitation events.
Staying on the Southern Hemisphere, a research team led by Sue Rosier, looked at
extreme precipitation over the North Island
of New Zealand that led to severe flooding in July 2014.
«We show that at the present - day warming
of 0.85 °C about 18 %
of the moderate daily
precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence,» the research team said.
My experience with
extremes and detection and attribution
of an anthropogenic signal in those is that only by averaging the behavior
of extremes (both temperature
extremes and
precipitation extremes)
over large geographical areas (continental or barely sub-continental) we have been able to see something outside
of natural variability.
Second Assessment
of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin https://books.google.com/books?isbn=3319160060 The BACC II Author Team averaged frequency
of extreme 1 - day
precipitation totals above 15 mm and a... 4.6 Cloudiness and Solar Radiation 4.6.1 Cloudiness Records
of cloudiness and solar... There is a trend
of decreasing cloud cover
over the Baltic Sea basin......
These results are based on a comparison
of observed and multi-model simulated changes in
extreme precipitation over the latter half
of the twentieth century analyzed with an optimal fingerprinting technique.
I posted a quick riff overnight on new research, published in Nature, that links human - driven global warming and rising instances
of extreme precipitation in observed parts
of the Northern Hemisphere
over the last half
of the 20th century.
The U.S. Climate
Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record - large 44 percent during the January - June period, over twice the averag
Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent
of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record - large 44 percent during the January - June period, over twice the averag
extremes in temperature,
precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record - large 44 percent during the January - June period,
over twice the average value.
Over the longer term, this kind
of weather isn't totally unexpected —
extreme swings in
precipitation are becoming the new normal.
* I was just recently pointed at a study by Cretat et al (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1796-7) demonstrating the added skill
of RCMs
over GCMs to capture the characteristics
of extreme precipitation events
over Africa
In addition, climate change is very likely to lead to more frequent
extreme heat events and daily
precipitation extremes over most areas
of North America, more frequent low snow years, and shifts towards earlier snowmelt runoff
over much
of the western US and Canada (high confidence).
Hagos, S. M., et al., 2016: A projection
of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and
extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations.
One
of the major findings is an increase in key types
of extreme weather events, especially in heat waves and large
precipitation events, in the U.S. and around the world
over the last 50 years.
This report discusses our current understanding
of the mechanisms that link declines in Arctic sea ice cover, loss
of high - latitude snow cover, changes in Arctic - region energy fluxes, atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence
of extreme weather events; possible implications
of more severe loss
of summer Arctic sea ice upon weather patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps in our understanding, and observational and / or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations for using Arctic sea ice predictions to assess the risk
of temperature /
precipitation anomalies and
extreme weather events
over northern continents.
Winter
precipitation (mean and
extreme) variability and trends along the south coast and interior
of Alaska appear to be closely related to variations in the PNA pattern
over this timeframe, while El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences, through the Nino3 index, appear to be significant along the south coast alone.
The projections also indicate an increase in the basin - averaged
precipitation and an increase in the frequency
of extreme precipitation events
over the region as a whole.
Zilli M. T., L. M. V. Carvalho, B. Liebmann and M. A. S. Dias (April 2017): A comprehensive analysis
of trends in
extreme precipitation over southeastern coast
of Brazil.
Wang, J. & Zhang, X. Downscaling and projection
of winter
extreme daily
precipitation over North America.
Although the global models have improved
over time (Chapter 8), they still have limitations that affect the simulation
of extreme events in terms
of spatial resolution, simulation errors, and parametrizations that must represent processes that can not yet be included explicitly in the models, particularly dealing with clouds and
precipitation (Meehl et al., 2000d).
In general, the majority
of all
precipitation occurs as isolated 1 - day events, while most
extreme precipitation occurs
over a period
of several hours embedded within 2 - 5 day events.
Over 75 %
of the Northeast short - term
extreme precipitation is related to extratropical storms moving through or near the region, except during September, when more than 50 %
of extreme precipitation is related to tropical storm activity.
The culprit behind much
of the
extreme heat in each case has been large, strong, and persistent areas
of high pressure, which have set up shop
over these high latitude locations, keeping cooler weather and
precipitation at bay.
Here is an excerpt
of the research paper, «When It Rains It Pours», from Environment America, showing a statistically significant spike in flash flooding and other
extreme precipitation events since 1948: «Weather records show that storms with
extreme precipitation have become more frequent
over the last 60 years.
An analysis
of extreme precipitation trends in Europe during the 20th century has identified a wetting trend
over central and western Europe from 1921 to 1999.
Many impacts
of climate change will be realised as the result
of a change in the frequency
of occurrence
of extreme weather events such as windstorms, tornados, hail, heatwaves, gales, heavy
precipitation or
extreme temperatures
over a few hours to several days.