Sentences with phrase «of precipitation variability»

Vera C. S., P. L. M. Gonzalez, B. Liebmann and G. N. Kiladis (November 2018): Seasonal cycle of precipitation variability in South America on intraseasonal timescales.

Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described as a white noise stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades, since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability.

Some global circulation models also project that mean winter precipitation in the Southwest will decline by up to 10 % [52], but it may take many years to detect effects on stream flows because of precipitation variability [55].

If past patterns of precipitation variability remain stable in the near term, then it is probable that precipitation and flows in the Salt - Verde watersheds will shift into wetter conditions within the timeframe examined in this study [66].

«Interestingly, the effect of precipitation variability was amplified over the six years the experiment lasted and we still don't know its end point,» said Laureano Gherardi, a School of Life Sciences postdoctoral research associate and co-author of the paper.

Not exact matches

The methodology developed in Lovejoy's two recent papers could also be used by researchers to help analyze precipitation trends and regional climate variability and to develop new stochastic methods of climate forecasting, he adds.

Variability of central European temperature and precipitation shows correlations with some major historical changes.

We present tree ring — based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years.

Because they are habitat specialists requiring a very specific amount of precipitation, they are likely to be unprepared to face ongoing temperature variability and changing precipitation levels.

Because of large natural variability, the first approach results in an outcome suggesting that it is appropriate to conclude that there is no increase in precipitation by human influences, although the correct interpretation is that there is simply not enough evidence (not a long enough time series).

On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).

For the Powder River near Locate, May - June precipitation accounts for close to half (43 %) of the annual variability in streamflow, probably because southeastern Montana receives the majority of its annual precipitation in the spring and early summer.

The ENSO phenomenon is one of the key factors that influence the interannual variability of precipitation over Southern South America.

has decreased in winter, but no significant change in annual mean precipitation potentially because of very slight increases in spring and fall precipitation; precipitation is projected to increase across Montana, primarily in spring; slight decrease in summer precipitation; variability of precipitation year - to - year projected to increase

Cullather, R.I., D.H. Bromwich, and M.L. Van Woert, 1998: Spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic precipitation from atmospheric methods.

However, it is expected that — given the combination of changes in precipitation variability, changed snowpack, and rising temperatures — future droughts will be more severe when they do occur.

Average winter precipitation has decreased by 0.9 inches (2.3 cm), which can mostly be attributed to natural variability and an increase in El Niño events, especially in the western and central parts of the state.

Multidecadal variability of the continental precipitation annual amplitude driven by AMO and ENSO

Around 1.2 billion people live in areas of physical scarcity, and 500 million people are approaching this situation mainly due to lack of precipitation combined with high variability and frequent drought events, lack of infrastructure, increased pollution and unsustainable water management.

Areas of expertise: Global and regional climate change and variability; analysis of extreme climate and weather events (e.g. precipitation, drought, tropical and mid-latitude storms); climatic signal decomposition methods

Horinouchi, T., 2002: Mesoscale variability of tropical precipitation: Validation of satellite estimates of wave forcing using TOGA COARE radar data.

For birds and amphibians, we considered exposure to five components of climate change, namely changes in mean temperature, temperature variability, mean precipitation, precipitation variability and sea level rise.

Global models for the 21st century find an increased variability of precipitation minus evaporation [P - E] in most of the world, especially near the equator and at high latitudes [125].

By looking at the signatures of climate change in precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense precipitation on any given day has increased by 7 percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variability.

What would be interesting to look at, rather than mean annual temperatures is the variability of temperature and precipitation patterns throughout the year.

These variability trends indicate that the frequency of extremes (more drought events and more heavy precipitation events) has increased whereas the mean has remained approximately the same.

I quote from their abstract http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05035.1 «The first REOF in particular consists of a Rossby wave that extends across northern Eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability and played an important role in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves.»

Averaging smoothes out day - to - day and year - to - year natural weather variability and extremes, removing much of the chaotic behavior, revealing any underlying long term trends in climate, such as a long term increase or decrease in temperature, or long term shifts in precipitation patterns.

My experience with extremes and detection and attribution of an anthropogenic signal in those is that only by averaging the behavior of extremes (both temperature extremes and precipitation extremes) over large geographical areas (continental or barely sub-continental) we have been able to see something outside of natural variability.

These shape the 4 - dimensional pattern of temperature and other changes — the patterns of circulation, latent heating, and precipitation will shift, as can the cycles driven the imposed diurnal and seasonal cycles in incident solar radiation; the texture of internal variability can also shift.

In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record.»

So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic influences on large scale increase in precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread increase in heavy precipitation could be due to an unusual event of natural variability.The intensification of extreme rainfall is expected with warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing from climate variability — the separation will always be statistical in nature.

Heck, even if AGW weren't an issue, understanding the range of climate variation (that is temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, etc) expected from natural variability is still something that needs quantifying accurately, especially as we zoom towards a 10 - billion world population with all of the major agricultural areas concentrated in small regions of the globe.

This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global - mean precipitation and surface fluxes).

«Ocean evaporation has little direct influence on California precipitation because of its relatively weak variability,» Wei said.

No changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change were found for the observational period, in large part because of significant year - to - year variability.

This study investigates the variability of convective and stratiform rainfall from 8 yr (1998â $ «2005) of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) measurements, focusing on seasonal diurnal variability.

In this steep alpine basin, stream temperature variability appears to be enhanced by quick routing of precipitation to the river channel (i.e., direct precipitation / channel interception, rapid surface flow over impermeable bedrock / thin alpine soils, and subsurface flow through highly weathered scree slopes).

More accurate and reliable precipitation data would be invaluable, not only for the study of climate trends and variability, but also as inputs to hydrological and ecological models and for model validation, characterization of extreme events, and flood and drought forecasting.

Diurnal variability is an important yet poorly understood aspect of the warm - season precipitation regime over southwestern North America.

Bonfils, C.J.W., B.D. Santer, T.J. Phillips, K. Marvel, L.R. Leung, C. Doutriaux, and A. Capotondi, 2015: Relative contributions of mean - state shifts and ENSO - driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate.

In agreement with the results of their study, the contribution of variability (i.e. amount of precipitation during the driest and the wettest quarters) in our model was low; nevertheless the overall geographic fit of the model was improved when those two variables were included.

Its six chapters cover temperature assessment, precipitation assessment, large - scale climate variability modes and related oscillation indices, extreme events, climate and composition of the atmosphere and cryosphere and sea level.

This analytical document shows that stable isotope ratios can be used to monitor changes in the character of precipitation in response to periodic variability or changes in climate.

Glaciers are the result of solid precipitation and reflect its variability from one year to the next.

«One of the major modes of climate variability is El Niño and when we're in El Niño there's a large area of warm sea surface temps in the Pacific,» this leads to more precipitation on the West Coast, Crouch said.

One dynamically downscaled IPCC simulation (WRF - MPI - ECHAM5) has a robust representation of Pacific sea surface temperature variability in the future projection period up to 2040, but the relationship to enhancement of precipitation extremes is not as clear as in observations.

The resolution must be very course of curse and I don't know how they would allow for variability in precipitation.

Scenarios were designed to account for variability in winter precipitation, as well as the pace and extent of forest treatments.

Output from global circulation models indicates that climate variability will continue to be an important characteristic of the region in the future [52], but that climate change may increase the risk of extreme climatic events such as multi-decade droughts and extreme winter precipitation [53], [54].