A dynamic multiple regression approach for quantifying the relative impact
of precipitation variations and streamflow generation conditions on runoff
Not exact matches
The researchers also found that a substantial amount
of genetic
variation among individual warblers is associated with the different
precipitation levels
of their respective environments.
Although the study does not directly identify a link between this type
of variation and current climate change vulnerability, these
precipitation - linked variables could be a source
of vulnerability in the future, Bay and her colleagues noted.
The results show that the correlation between climate change — i.e. the
variation in temperature and
precipitation between glacials and interglacials — and the loss
of megafauna is weak, and can only be seen in one sub-region, namely Eurasia (Europe and Asia).
Variations in the thickness
of the layers is determined by a combination
of the amount
of water seeping into the cave and the concentration
of carbon dioxide in the cave's atmosphere so, when conditions are right, they can provide a measure
of how the amount
of precipitation above the cave varies over time.
Using U.S. Weather Service data on
precipitation, radiosonde measurements
of CAPE and lightning - strike counts from the National Lightning Detection Network at the University
of Albany, State University
of New York (UAlbany), they concluded that 77 percent
of the
variations in lightning strikes could be predicted from knowing just these two parameters.
Researchers from the University
of California Irvine have shown that a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a natural pattern
of variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures that switches between a positive and negative phase every 60 - 70 years — can affect an atmospheric circulation pattern, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that influences the temperature and
precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere in winter.
This process
of smoothing the original water isotope
variations from
precipitation is dependent on the temperature, as the water molecules in vapour form are more mobile at warmer temperatures.
However, unlike the climate model simulations, the new
precipitation reconstruction does not show an increase
of wet and dry anomalies in the twentieth century compared to the natural
variations of the past millennium.
Trenberth points to disconcerting discrepancies and spurious
variations in records, including those
of precipitation and solar radiation, derived from different satellite sensors.
Centennial
Variations of the Global Monsoon
Precipitation in the Last Millennium: Results from ECHO - G Model
In addition, year - to - year fluctuations in spring
precipitation may be contributing to
variation in the timing
of runoff among years (Pederson et al. 2011a).
January
precipitation accounts for 15 %
of annual
variation, showing that winter
precipitation from the Powder River's alpine headwaters in Wyoming is also important.
Natural
variation in
precipitation influences snowmelt timing and the seasonal distribution
of streamflow.
On decadal time scales, annual streamflow
variation and
precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns
of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).
The AMO is likely to be a driver
of multi-decadal
variations in Sahel droughts,
precipitation in the Caribbean, summer climate
of both North America and Europe, sea ice concentration in the Greenland Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 2006).
Changes in production are directly linked to
variations in temperature and
precipitation during the growing season and often to the offseason changes in weather because
of soil water storage to replenish the soil profile.
The following table corresponding to the wet 1969 shows the
variation of precipitation in different places
of Santa Cruz Island:
The average probability that some form
of precipitation will be observed in any given day is only 2 %, with little
variation over the month.
The average probability that some form
of precipitation will be observed in March is 32 % with little
variation.
For example, [Kruss 1983] has this to say about the Lewis glacier on Mt. Kenya: «A decrease in the annual
precipitation on the order
of 150 mm in the last quarter
of the 19th century, followed by a secular air temperature rise
of a few tenths
of a degree centigrade during the first half
of the 20th century, together with associated albedo and cloudiness
variation, constitute the most likely cause
of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100 years.»
A clear and more detailed explanation can be found in Section 2.1
of the Simmons et al 2010 JGR article «Low - frequency
variations in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and
precipitation: Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets» (doi: 10.1029 / 2009JD012442).
«Impact
of interannual
variations in sources
of insoluble aerosol species on orographic
precipitation over California's central Sierra Nevada.»
Heck, even if AGW weren't an issue, understanding the range
of climate
variation (that is temperature,
precipitation, cloud cover, etc) expected from natural variability is still something that needs quantifying accurately, especially as we zoom towards a 10 - billion world population with all
of the major agricultural areas concentrated in small regions
of the globe.
Our observational studies (Gray and Schwartz, 2010 and 2011)
of the
variations of outward radiation (IR + albedo) energy flux to space (ISCCP data) vs. tropical and global
precipitation increase (from NCEP reanalysis data) indicates that there is not a reduction
of global net radiation (IR + Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical - regional rainfall.
This leads to the following chain
of causes and effects: decreased mass
variations reduce the numerically induced alternating patterns in the horizontal velocity components, which reduce erroneous vertical mass fluxes, which reduce erroneous
precipitation.
For example, deficiencies remain in the simulation
of tropical
precipitation, the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Madden - Julian Oscillation (an observed
variation in tropical winds and rainfall with a time scale
of 30 to 90 days).
Balling, Jr., R. C., and G. B. Goodrich, 2011: Spatial analysis
of variations in
precipitation intensity in the USA.
Despite the complexity
of global food supply, here we show that simple measures
of growing season temperatures and
precipitation — spatial averages based on the locations
of each crop — explain ~ 30 % or more
of year - to - year
variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops.
(C)
Precipitation magnitude (Axis 1 of a PCA of monthly total precipitation representing 48 % o
Precipitation magnitude (Axis 1
of a PCA
of monthly total
precipitation representing 48 % o
precipitation representing 48 %
of variation).
(H) Coefficient
of variation of total monthly
precipitation (cm).
Characteristics
of temporal
variations of precipitation for Seoul, Korea, have been examined using a 220 - yr record.
The first two axes comprised 69 % and 20 %
of the
variation in monthly temperatures and 48 % and 21 %
of the
variation in monthly
precipitations.
In the mid-latitudes, where most
of the continental U.S. is located, there is an upward trend in extreme
precipitation in the vicinity
of fronts associated with mid-latitude storms.1 Locally, natural
variations can also be important.14
More Scientific Evidence For CO2's Dubious Climate Impact Emerges Image Source: Robertson and Chilingar, 2017 According to the most basic precepts
of anthropogenic global warming (AGW),
variations in CO2 concentrations exert significant control on sea surface temperatures, glaciers, sea levels, and generalized climate dynamics (i.e.,
precipitation patterns).
Depending on the region, the persistence from spring to summer
of soil moisture or snow anomalies generated during spring by temperature and
precipitation variations may explain river flows
variations in summer, when no concomitant climate
variations exist.
We conclude by underlining that the observed
variation of glacier surface and SLA changes could be explained by the increase
of temperature and decrease
of precipitation in recent years.
Dynamics determine largely when and where
precipitation falls and that is a determined largely by fairly constant rotation
of the earth, orbital
variation, and the location
of the oceans and continents.
Many climatic parameters (ground and ocean surface temperatures, pressure, atmospheric
precipitation, etc.) have temporal
variations with characteristic periods from several to several tens
of years or more.
(3) The publication
of the scientific manuscript «Centennial
variations of the global monsoon
precipitation in the last millennium: Results from ECHO - G model» by Jiau Liu, Bin Wang, Qinghua Ding, Xueyuan Kuang, Willie Soon and Eduaordo Zorita (2009) in press for the peer - reviewed journal Journal
of Climate.
Simulations also showed there may have been an effect
of large interannual
variations in
precipitation, causing an imbalance between leaf area and stem growth, with negative impacts on tree vigor.
An interesting result
of this study is the simulated response
of trees to the inter-annual
variations in
precipitation.
Citation: Liu, J., B. Wang, Q. Ding, X. Kuang, W. Soon, and E. Zorita, 2009a: Centennial
variations of the global monsoon
precipitation in the last millennium: results from ECHO - G model.
ENSO has been related to
variations of precipitation and temperature over much
of the tropics and sub-tropics, and some mid-latitude areas.
Year - to - year
variation in the intensity and latitude
of this cell is the major determinant
of the
variation in annual
precipitation in the mid latitudes
of the southern Andes.
The AMO is likely to be a driver
of multi-decadal
variations in Sahel droughts,
precipitation in the Caribbean, summer climate
of both North America and Europe, sea ice concentration in the Greenland Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 2006).
It's a mode
of natural
variation in the tropical eastern Pacific ocean which is indicated by sea surface temperature in that region, as well as patterns
of atmospheric pressure, surface winds over the ocean, even
precipitation over a much larger region.
N (1) Natural mechanisms play well more than a negligible role (as claimed by the IPCC) in the net changes in the climate system, which includes temperature
variations,
precipitation patterns, weather events, etc., and the influence
of increased CO2 concentrations on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined.
Variations in
precipitation matter only insofar as it is a predicted outcome
of AGW.
They found that ocean temperature
variations cause up to 40 %
of the changes to
precipitation, depending on location.