You are aware (I am sure)
of the predictions made around 1860 that Manchester would be covered in two meters of horse manure by 1920, due to the rapidly expanding number of horse carriages (similar forecasts were made for New York).
Some readers might recall a story from a couple of years of ago relating polar ozone depletion to cosmic rays and the subsequent failure
of predictions made using that theory.
When I am told by «believers»,
of these predictions made from computer models, I ask them to imagine themselves in Edwardian England on a lovely summers day in May 1914 and please outline history to the year 2000.
Please do point me to the definitive correlation
of predictions made by your fabulously accurate atmospheric models to the actual reality measured over the past 20 years.
There may be an element of truth in
some of the predictions made from those cherry - picked temperature data, but so far I haven't seen any.
Earlier you said «This site has tiny handful
of the predictions made and how they have failed» yet all the examples you have given appear to be about either projections of global temperatures, which I am sure others will pick up on if you want to push the issue, or the timespan we have available to take action to avoid committing ourselves to future consequences.
(the spring prediction barrier is mentioned in the opening post but not explained; «spring prediction barrier» for el nino («oogle tells me) refers to the unreliability
of predictions made around this time of year, during which predictions aren't very, er, predictive.
Some of the predictions we made way back then are now a reality, while others have not yet gathered momentum — to our disappointment.
An american bank trading in the Far East made a profit of $ 300 000 in the final two months of last year by investing money on the basis
of predictions made by a neural network computer.
Secondly, a «meta - learning system» which analyses the accuracy
of predictions made by the low - level system and controls overall «motivation».
Most
of the predictions made by the IPCC have either come true, or were grossly understating the scale of the problem.
In the report, an international team of climate scientists warns policy - makers that levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are at the extreme end
of predictions made only in 2007, and that natural CO2 sinks such as oceans are becoming saturated.
Below is a re-post
of a prediction I made using advance stats at the all - star break (please note that I am normally the blogs optimist, so it was odd for me to be so negative).
The short time scale
of this prediction makes it amenable to have some fun with a bet, because the outcome will be seen in a reasonable time frame.
The new finding appears to be the fulfillment
of a prediction made in 1978 by an eminent glaciologist, John H. Mercer of the Ohio State University.
Not exact matches
First, he hyped up
prediction market Stox in July — posting a photo
of himself on a private jet next to literal piles on money, promising «I'm gonna
make a $ hit t $ n
of money on August 2nd on the Stox.com ICO.»
The roundup consists
of stories with advice, what not to do, controversial issues, success stories, confessions,
predictions, inspiration and how to
make money:
It studies DNA in the blood, detecting biological signs
of cancer and then
making predictions about where the cancer is and what kind
of treatments would work best.
Bringing quantitative measurement and
prediction of outcomes to traditional PR will grow transparency and trust between agencies and clients, and inform better decision -
making and, ultimately, results.
One measure would be to compare current estimates to the
predictions of first - year sales that were
made in the fall
of 2014, when the device was unveiled.
Ironically, the contingency reserve was slashed by two - thirds on the grounds
of reduced downside risk to the economy; given the current state
of the economy this projection may one day
make a list
of shockingly bad
predictions.
I've looked previously at some
of the arguments
made by the housing bears, for example in «Housing crash
predictions using wrong indicators.»
Barclays and Credit Suisse have both this week predicted that the Brexit vote will tip the UK into recession and Bank
of England Governor Mark Carney
made a similar
prediction prior to the vote.
Three months prior to the Games, China's state - funded wire agency
made a bold
prediction: «The empty seats that hurt the festive mood
of the Athens Olympics won't be seen in Beijing when the Chinese capital hosts the 2008 Games.»
If we're talking about a model trained on data to
make predictions, let's stick with ML (a subfield
of AI).
He was referring to a
prediction he had
made nine months earlier that, before the recession was over, media companies would experience a decline in advertising revenue
of as much as 40 percent.
The green - shoots
predictions and pronouncements are simply meant to talk up the market and
make everyone «feel» richer in the hopes
of igniting the so - called confidence fairy.
Before we dive in, we should
make one thing clear: it's notoriously difficult to
make these types
of predictions, and we do not envy the position
of these researchers in any sense.
He cites a classic decision -
making study in which horse racing experts were given information to predict the outcome
of a race, and asked their level
of confidence in their
prediction.
Recruited by Google for many years, Stouffer instead decided to do his own thing and eventually founded an AI - powered SEO platform that now does an impressively good job
of making predictions.
You'll use your research, sales forecasts, market trends and competitive analysis to
make well thought - out
predictions of how you see your business developing if you're able to follow a specified course.
The institute's Tumor Neoantigen Selection Alliance, which includes Bhardwaj's team and others from the University
of Pennsylvania and to Stanford Medicine, is focusing on discovering «cancer markers» and then
making predictions on neoantigens to combat them.
Tom Lee, head
of research at Fundstrat, has
made the same
prediction.
«We quantify it... looking into regions
of the brain to
make much more accurate
predictions if you will develop Alzheimer's and the likelihood
of phases as you age,» Venter said.
But we can always count
predictions, theories, and
make analysis
of what will happen.
Having proved his ability to handle crystal ball work, Buffett, 86, was asked by this writer — an 87 - year - old friend
of his — whether he might care to
make a
prediction about total returns over the 17 years starting now and ending late in 2033.
A panel
of experts
make predictions about the impact
of the American Recovery and Reinvestment act
of 2009.
Electric vehicle sales have been abysmally disappointing,
making up only about 1 %
of the annual global market; five years ago, there were
predictions that we'd be headed toward 15 % to 20 % by now.
The goal in my counsel, and that
of my co-workers in the firm, is to have clients understand what we have known all along: We are unable to predict the market's outcome, so don't fall into the trap where you think you can
make predictions or you'll ultimately increase the probability
of losing money.
Start
making bolder claims in your articles, and
making bigger
predictions about the future
of your industry.
They've
made a myriad
of predictions, one
of which is that in about thirty years, 2049 to be precise, a robot will have written a New York Times bestseller.
In a letter to U.S. Comptroller General Gene Dodaro, Democratic Senator Ron Wyden and Representative Richard Neal said they were concerned that the U.S. Treasury could be pressured to adopt tax withholding tables that take too little federal tax out
of employee paychecks to
make good on White House
predictions of a middle - class windfall.
Treasury could be pressured to adopt tax withholding tables that take too little federal tax out
of employee paychecks to
make good on White House
predictions of a middle - class windfall.
The goal is a system that constantly watches the behaviour
of its customers,
makes predictions, and learns from its mistakes to refine its own processes.
Glueck had been
making the rounds for less than a year, seeding the market with all kinds
of predictions based on his company's data — how many new iPhones Apple would sell, or how well McDonald's all - day breakfast launch was going.
About five years ago, Malcolm Gladwell, author
of bestselling books like The Tipping Point and Blink,
made this
prediction, basically writing off the power
of social media for businesses: «In about five years, everyone will head back toward traditional advertising.»
In the spring
of 2016, Foursquare CEO Jeff Glueck went on CNBC to
make a bold
prediction: Chipotle comparable sales would fall by 29 percent in its first quarter.
In one instance, Google conducted an experiment to see if RankBrain could
make accurate
predictions of which pages would rank highest as compared with a team
of search engineers.
Futurist (and current director
of engineering at Google) Ray Kurzweil has
made a lot
of predictions about the future — and many
of them have come true.
The patterns in the stars: Nate Silver
makes amazing
predictions by crunching huge volumes
of data.