Rose, B.E.J., L. Rayborn * and N. Feldl, Understanding the Dependence
of Radiative Feedbacks and Clouds on the Spatial Structure of Ocean Heat Uptake.
It's not quantitative for several reasons (ocean heat uptake, the dependence
of radiative feedbacks on the spatial structure of the SST changes, etc).
Roy Spencer and William Braswell, «On the Diagnosis
of Radiative Feedback in the Presence of Unknown Radiative Forcing,» Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 115, August 24, 2010 38.
Spencer, R.W., and Braswell, W. D. (2010) On the diagnosis
of radiative feedback in the face of unknown radiative forcing, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D16109.
Their method of overcoming this (which is quite an important bias towards high sensitivity, see «Spencer, R. W., and W. D. Braswell (2010), On the diagnosis
of radiative feedback in the presence of unknown radiative forcing, J. Geophys.
Spencer cites: Spencer & Braswell, 2010: «On the Diagnosis
of Radiative Feedback in the Presence of Unknown Radiative Forcing» JGR, for his latest work.
Not exact matches
Acting as a safety valve
of sorts, this response creates a negative
radiative feedback that allows more
of the accumulating heat to be released into space through the top
of the atmosphere.
This was revealed through a key aspect
of the simulation called
radiative feedback, which accounted for the way X-rays emitted by the black hole affected distant gas.
Continuous measurements was used for the first time to estimate the direct
radiative feedback of natural aerosols
(Top left) Global annual mean
radiative influences (W m — 2)
of LGM climate change agents, generally
feedbacks in glacial - interglacial cycles, but also specified in most Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations for the LGM.
The mechanism for reducing anthropogenic global warming, initiated through
radiative forcing
of greenhouse gases, is to stop emissions and reduce their concentration in the atmosphere to levels which do not stimulate carbon
feedbacks.
Tsushima, Y., A. Abe - Ouchi, and S. Manabe, 2005:
Radiative damping
of annual variation in global mean surface temperature: Comparison between observed and simulated
feedback.
Jerome Fast has lead a team
of PNNL scientists that have contributed a gas - phase chemistry mechanism, an sectional aerosol model, cloud chemistry, cloud - aerosol interactions, and
radiative feedback processes into the chemistry version
of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF - chem) model.
Peters, M.E., and C.S. Bretherton, 2005: A simplified model
of the Walker circulation with an interactive ocean mixed layer and cloud -
radiative feedbacks.
The regional climate
feedbacks formulation reveals fundamental biases in a widely - used method for diagnosing climate sensitivity,
feedbacks and
radiative forcing — the regression
of the global top -
of - atmosphere radiation flux on global surface temperature.
However, in view
of the fact that cloud
feedbacks are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the fact that the energy balance model used by Schmittner et al can not compute changes in cloud
radiative forcing is particularly serious.
I think the actual point that we were making was that the cloud
feedback (how clouds change as a function
of the temperature, circulation, humidity etc., and how that impacts the
radiative balance) is not being calculated here.
Nevertheless, the results described here provide key evidence
of the reliability
of water vapor
feedback predicted by current climate models in response to a global perturbation in the
radiative energy balance.»
Abstract:» The sensitivity
of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms
of the global climate
feedback — the global
radiative response per degree
of global annual mean surface temperature change.
Since OHC uptake efficiency associated with surface warming is low compared with the rate
of radiative restoring (increase in energy loss to space as specified by the climate
feedback parameter), an important internal contribution must lead to a loss rather than a gain
of ocean heat; thus the observation
of OHC increase requires a dominant role for external forcing.
He goes so far as to say that the IPCC is biased against «internal
radiative forcing,» in favor
of treating cloud effects as
feedback.
On the possibility
of a changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on
feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal
radiative forcing and positive
feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
Alternatively, more direct observations
of that
radiative imbalance would be nice, or better theoretical and observational understanding
of the water vapor and cloud
feedbacks, or more paleoclimate data which can give us constraints on historical
feedbacks, but my guess is that ocean heat content measurements would be the best near term bet for improving our understanding
of this issue.
In the recently published report
of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), 6 out
of 20 climate models showed a positive and 14 a negative cloud
radiative feedback in a doubled CO2 scenario.»
Gavin disputes that the main driver
of the sea ice retreat is the albedo flip, but we are seeing not only polar amplification
of global warming but positive
feedback, which would not be explained simply by
radiative forces and ocean currents.
CO2 ppm effects a
radiative forcing in W / m ^ 2 and temperature response to forcing in K is mediated by a host
of feedbacks and heat capacities.
In Spencer and Braswell (2008), and to an even greater extent in his blog article, Spencer tries to introduce the rather peculiar notion
of «internal
radiative forcing» as distinct from cloud or water vapor
feedback.
Abstract:» The sensitivity
of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms
of the global climate
feedback — the global
radiative response per degree
of global annual mean surface temperature change.
It is the net overall
feedback to increased
radiative forcing that is important and we are way way short
of understanding how these operate.
so when i'm talking to people out there and they can produce a stupid list
of dissenting scientists, i can't explain to them about the
radiative proberties
of co2 and
feedbacks and so on.
Since many
of these processes result in non-symmetric time, location and temperature dependant
feedbacks (eg water vapor, clouds, CO2 washout, condensation, ice formation,
radiative and convective heat transfer etc) then how can a model that uses yearly average values for the forcings accurately reflect the results?
We also know that there must be positive
feedbacks in order for Earth to be at its current temperature — you wouldn't get 33 degrees
of warming from just the intrinsic
radiative properties
of the greenhouse gasses.
(57k) When I state that the equilibrium climatic response must balance imposed RF (and
feedbacks that occur), I am referring to a global time average RF and global time average response (in terms
of radiative and convective fluxes), on a time scale sufficient to characterize the climatic state (including cycles driven by externally - forced cycles (diurnal, annual) and internal variability.
Starting from an old equilbrium, a change in
radiative forcing results in a
radiative imbalance, which results in energy accumulation or depletion, which causes a temperature response that approahes equilibrium when the remaining imbalance approaches zero — thus the equilibrium climatic response, in the global - time average (for a time period long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability), causes an opposite change in
radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they occur) equal in magnitude to the sum
of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings» caused by non-Planck
feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent changes in optical properties, + etc.).)
The stratosphere will, absent sustained non-
radiative perturbations (see 57i), approach
radiative equilibrium on a time scale under a year (Holton, «An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology», 1992, p. 410), so taking stratospheric adjustment to instantaneous stratospheric forcing first and then applying the adjusted tropopause - level forcing to the troposphere + surface and stratospheric
feedbacks is similar to the actual order
of events in reality.
So there is little evidence
of the cloud
radiative feedback that may keep the Arctic temperate in future being a major player now.
Obviously, sensitivity to
radiative forcing
of greenhouse gases (not water vapor, but CO2 and CH4) can't include
feedbacks of those same gases — those are defined as forcings in such a sensitivity.
First, for changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such as a change in incident solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE
radiative «forcings» (
feedbacks, though in the context
of measuring their
radiative effect, they can be described as having
radiative forcings
of x W / m2 per change in surface T), such as water vapor
feedback, LW cloud
feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature distribution, the lapse rate
feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though changes in the position
of the tropopause and changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered lapse - rate
feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some
of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
It should not be so hard to accept that doubling the concentration
of a gas that interacts with earth's
radiative output (which is orders
of magnitude larger than any other energy loss), over time and with
feedbacks included, can change change the surface temperature by about 1 %.
Within a convecting layer, convective fluxes can also be part
of the response, but where convection is bounded within a layer, the layer as a whole must respond with radiation to
radiative forcings and
feedbacks.)
The equilbrium global time average response (on a time scale sufficient to characterize externally - forced cycles (day, year) and internal varibility) to an imposed global time average
radiative forcing is a change that balances the externally imposed forcing plus any non-Planck
feedbacks (where the Planck response is part
of the response to the other
feedbacks.
So really it's the gain
of the temperature - convection
feedback that's at stake, and if it were high enough to fully offset all
radiative effects on temperature, there'd be some obvious symptoms — low natural variability and glacial cycles perfectly correlated with insolation perhaps.
IF the rise in temperature is caused by the
radiative absorbtion by 390ppm
of GHG (I agree), then the proposed increase in convective
feedback is spread out over a MILLION ppm
of air.
What ARM meant: To unravel the uncertainties in cloud
feedbacks it was necessary to obtain simultaneous measurements
of a broad range
of parameters relative to clouds and their impact on the
radiative energy balance.
``... Using
radiative kernels (43, 44) and the changes in specific humidity in the CMIP5 4 × CO2 forcing experiments, we calculate an SW water vapor
feedback of +0.3 ± 0.1 W m − 2 K − 1.
and seen that even a large part
of skeptics agree on many issues and the approximate
of the direct
radiative forcing
of CO2 belongs to those issues (while the
feedbacks certainly do not).
The
radiative forcing due to CO2 may serve as an amplifier
of initial orbital forcing, which is then further amplified by fast atmospheric
feedbacks (39) that are also at work for the present - day and future climate.
«Climate Change and Cloud
Feedback: The Possible
Radiative Effects
of Latitudinal Redistribution.»
Once triggered, the
radiative effects
of H2O are completely overwhelmed by the storms, resulting in a very strong localized negative
feedback.
The large spread in cloud
radiative feedbacks leads to the conclusion that differences in cloud response are the primary source
of inter-model differences in climate sensitivity (see discussion in Section 8.6.3.2.2).