If you look again at my NCM you will see that by attributing an influence to the sun a large number
of real world observations fit into a coherent overall picture going back into the last ice age and potentially back to the first formation of the oceans.
3) However, even if the actual variance in TSI during that period was less than 4 Watts per square metre the fact is that various changes in temperature trend did occur and the shape of the chart would remain so on the basis
of real world observations we must accept that the lower the range of TSI involved then the more sensitive the Earth is as a water based thermometer.
I don't know
of any real world observations or math that can support it.
They might also ask you to explain why for long term projections, initial conditions matter little, with the model outputs converging toward a common and relatively accurate simulation
of real world observations.
That could explain the resolute failure
of real world observations to match model expectations and the failure to appear of the anticipated tropospheric «hot spot» that was expected as a marker for AGW.
Not exact matches
Compare them both to repeated, detailed
observations and measurements
of the
real world.
Atheism is based on clear minded objective
observation of the
real world.
«Critical consciousness» seems to entail a conviction that our ideas are in touch with the
real world only if they pass the test
of being «verifiable» or «falsifiable» according to methods
of observation that are publicly accessible.
Other indications
of evolution are too numerous to actually list in full, but a few might be the clear genetic distinction between Neanderthals and modern man; the overlapping features
of hominid and pre-hominid fossil forms; the progressive order
of the fossil record (that is, first fish, then amphibians, then reptiles, then mammals, then birds; contradicting the Genesis order and all flood models); the phylogenetic relationships between extant and extinct species (including distributions
of parasitic genetic elements like Endogenous Retroviruses); the
real time
observations of speciation in the lab and in the wild; the
real time
observations of novel functionality in the lab and wild (both genetic, Lenski's E. coli, and organsimal, the Pod Mrcaru lizards); the
observation of convergent evolution defeating arguments
of common component creationism (new
world v. old
world vultures for instance); and... well... I guess you get the picture.
They grow up believing in an Eternal Hell
of fire and brimstone, talking snakes, the Doctrine
of Original Sin, animals in an ark, a Young Earth paradigm, the notion that people lived to be hundreds
of years old a few thousand years ago, patriarchs that practiced child sacrifice and committed genocides, books that are supposed words
of gawd that contradict
real world observations, deities that kill their own children (human manifestations
of their own selves) for the sake
of sins that they never committed, the symbolic cannibalism and vampirism
of a deity... I could go on for days.
Within their paper, the pair details their development
of a new algorithm that simulates the evaporation
of water at the molecular scale that matches theoretical, numerical, and
real -
world observations.
By combining laboratory experiments, computer simulations and
real -
world observations, researchers discovered that the horizontal movement
of sloped seafloor during an underwater earthquake can give tsunamis a critical boost.
Going beyond this specific demonstration, if this approach, known as acoustic seafloor geodesy, proves to be robust in the long term (in this case, three to five years are planned, within the limits
of the autonomy
of the batteries), it could be included within a permanent underwater observatory as an addition to other
observations (seismology, gas bubble emission, etc) for in situ
real - time monitoring
of the activity
of this particular fault, or
of other active submarine faults elsewhere in the
world.
Francis, a leading proponent
of the theory that the Arctic can wreak havoc on weather elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, adds that the proposed mechanism fits «
observations of the
real world in recent years.»
«Its existence was predicted by the standard model
of particle physics and the fact that there's — we got a glimpse
of it, it looks like it may very well be there — is a
real victory for that model
of science where you test, you put forward conceptual models
of the way the
world or the universe works and test those models against the
observations and see the extent to which they can predict new
observations and when they do, it gives you increased confidence in the models.
Likewise, while models can not represent the climate system perfectly (thus the uncertainly in how much the Earth will warm for a given amount
of emissions), climate simulations are checked and re-checked against
real -
world observations and are an established tool in understanding the atmosphere.
We have already been able to make some interesting
observations on
real world chloride concentration changes over just 24 hour periods, illustrating the dangers
of relying on single point, single time measurements.»
Both
real -
world observations and the team's simulations reveal that the abnormally strong winds — driven by natural variation in a long - term climate cycle called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation — have, for the time being, carried the «missing» heat to intermediate depths
of the western Pacific Ocean.
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the
real world observations around the role
of water vapour in cloud formation.
The model is supported by
observations from satellites, ground - based networks that measure ozone - depleting chemicals in the
real world, and by
observations from two decades
of NASA aircraft field campaigns, including the most recent Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) in 2013 and the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) global atmospheric survey, which has made three deployments since 2016.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the
real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts
of past changes match
observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.
Thus it is natural to look at the
real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts
of past changes match
observations very well).
«This field site exhibits a typical North Atlantic biofouling community, most notably a population
of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), which allowed to compare the findings obtained in the laboratory with
observations in
real -
world conditions,» says Stefan Kolle, a Research Associate in the Aizenberg lab at the Wyss Institute and SEAS who is also a co-first author
of the paper.
Therefore, what Hansen's models and the
real -
world observations tell us is that climate sensitivity is about 40 % below 4.2 °C, or once again, right around 3 °C for a doubling
of atmospheric CO2.
In February, we helped scientists create a
real - time snapshot
of the
world's birds by counting the birds and sharing our
observations.
Personally, I'm doubtful that emergent constraint approaches generally tell one much about the relationship to the
real world of aspects
of model behaviour other than those which are closely related to the comparison with
observations.
The basic idea is that across the CMIP3 models there was a strong correlation
of mid-tropospheric humidity variations with the model sensitivity, and combined with
observations of the
real world variations, this gives a way to suggest which models are most realistic, and by extension, what sensitivities are more likely.
For almost every brand or magazine for which Chaix works, she starts by envisioning a certain woman, idealised but also drawn from
real -
world observations: «Who is she, is she sensual, distant, iconic, full
of energy or something else?»
After all, for all the film's broad yet astute
observations of how romantic comedies operate and the
real world romantic expectations that arise as a result, it is, ultimately, still a romantic comedy.
Real -
world observations often lead to a significant amount
of student inquiry.
The «
real -
world» goals
of this assignment are evaluated in part by teacher
observation of how the students work together, gather information, complete the writing, plan the illustration, and create the book.
Continuing in the Audubon tradition
of artistic ornithology, many
of Connor's bird paintings seem filtered through a lens
of the imagination, effectively transporting the birds from the
world of the
real to a magical realm
of observation and flight.
Though working on a diminutive scale as compared to Rosenquist's monumental compositions, Steele draws on rigorous
observations of the
real world to create fragmented images that waver between recognizable form and nonobjective abstraction.
«In his work Kelly abstracts the forms in his paintings from
observations of the
real world, such as shadows cast by trees or the spaces between architectural elements,» according to his biography on the Guggenheim's website.
It's something
of an abstract concept, but with
real world implications, and the universality
of such physical models, based on things like radiative balance, atmospheric composition and density, distance from the local Sun, etc., is a very strong argument in favor
of general acceptance
of the results
of climate models and
observations on Earth.
So you try to simulate some aspect
of the
real world and compare the simulation with
observations.
These are weather models which have the
real world observations assimilated into the solution to provide a «best guess»
of the evolution
of weather over time (although pre-satellite era estimates (before 1979) are less accurate).
Science (which the models are part
of) is evolving based on
real world observations.
A simple comparison
of observations with projections based on
real world climate forcings shows a very close match, especially if we take natural unforced variability into account as well (mainly ENSO).
If the predicted cooling by la Nina had not occurred then 2008 would probably have been the same temperature (given the uncertainties) as every year since 2001 and that in itself would require explanation.I am broadly in favour
of the global warmingCO2 hypothesis but I know it is just that, a hypothesis — and that needs testing against
real observations in the physical
world.
The basic idea is that across the CMIP3 models there was a strong correlation
of mid-tropospheric humidity variations with the model sensitivity, and combined with
observations of the
real world variations, this gives a way to suggest which models are most realistic, and by extension, what sensitivities are more likely.
It appears that
real world observations and not the wishful thinking
of «uncertainty» shows that if anything, problems are arising faster than anticipated.
[Response: As a modeler
of the deep sediment column, I go to talks about
observations of the
real world (geology, in other words), and am struck by how simplistic the models are.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the
real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts
of past changes match
observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.
And since the
real world did not have those large eruptions (1963 Agung and 1982 El Chichón repeated), the agreement
of observations with the forecasts is not as good as it appears.
So, for CMIP5, the diagnosis
of ECS involves a much larger change in forcing than the period
of observation (ie., ~ 40 % increase in the «
real world», vs. a 400 % increase in the diagnostic test
of model sensitivity.)
Instead, we have a very good idea
of what GHGs do to radiation, we have a reasonable idea
of what aerosols and land use changes do, and we can look for fingerprints in the
real world observations that match what we expect to have happened.
I have to admit that this is exactly the kind
of physics I enjoy, good simple theory joined at the hip with
real world observation, and I find it very convincing.
To come to their findings, the authors used a mixture
of paleoclimate records, computer models, and
observations of current rates
of sea level rise, but «the
real world is moving somewhat faster than the model,» Hansen says.
I have been raising this issue for some time especially in my various articles for ClimateRealists.com in which I have been persistently proposing that on the basis
of real world climate
observations the effect
of solar variability on climate must be the opposite
of conventional climatology.